July Total retail sales of consumer goods is expected to grow 18.36% year-on-year

August 6, "Securities Market Weekly" by the Sina Finance exclusive network released "Crystal Ball China's macroeconomic July consensus" shows that July total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year growth expected average of 18.36%. Consistent expected survey data showed that the total retail sales of consumer goods in July was expected to be the highest year-on-year growth of 19.2%, the minimum value of 17%, the median of 18.5%.　　Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics show that June total retail sales of consumer goods rose 18.3%, July total retail sales of consumer goods expected value compared with the June actual value slightly higher.　　Jian Xu, a macro analyst at CICC, told reporters on the phone that in July China's total retail sales of consumer goods will keep rising, and domestic demand is still strong. "The current growth of domestic consumer demand is relatively stable, the impact of the total retail price of consumer goods increase is mainly due to price factors, we expect, as July Year-on-year CPI will rebound, social consumer goods retail prices will also rise, so the total retail prices of consumer goods will rise year-on-year," Jian Xu said. Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 18.5% in July and remain strong.　　Zhangjing, a macro analyst at Huatai Securities, said in a telephone interview that the total retail sales of consumer goods will be higher than June. "There are two main reasons for this increase: on the one hand, in the same period of 2009, the total retail sales of consumer goods was smaller, and on the other hand, the retail price of consumer goods increased since July, and the direct result of the increase in retail prices was the rise of total retail sales. Zhangjing said, "In addition, the previous government various policy measures, such as home appliances to the countryside, car subsidies and other incentives for consumption still exist, such a stimulus in a short period of time it is difficult to completely eliminate." But meanwhile, over time, the impact of such incentives on China's future consumption will gradually fade, from the relevant data, July China's social consumer goods retail sales in the chain or will decline. "The 50 economists who participated in the survey came from major institutions including CICC, Bank of China (601988.SH,03988.HK), Bank of Communications (601328.SH,03328.HK), Guotai Securities, Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Haitong Securities ( 600837.SH), China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Bank of America Merrill Lynch, France Paris Securities, HSBC, and Standard Chartered Bank.