June Foreign trade data announced today the slowdown in institutional material growth

New Express reporter Shing If no accident, June customs data will be today Sunrise furnace. Due to China's resumption of the reform in the month, the cancellation of some of the export tax rebate two and foreign trade closely related to the big things, therefore, the data received more attention from the industry.　　For now, the June gap between imports and exports may not be too big, but growth slows or a big probability event, under the influence of a low base last year. At the top of the stage may have been May foreign trade results fluttering red, but the persistence of such a sharp rise is not a bullish market.　　According to the measurement of several institutions, the majority of the June foreign trade import and export growth will be lower than May. Tian-Phase Investment analysis teachers ' army predicts that both import and export growth will fall in June. Among them, exports grew 41.5% per cent year-on-year, with growth falling 7% per cent last month; imports rose 34.5% year-on-year, up 13.8% from last month.　　The June trade surplus was reduced to $17.8 billion trillion. China Merchants Bank Research report said the trend of export trends is not sustainable. Export growth in May hit a new high in the year, which was affected by the low base of the same period last year, as well as the recent acceleration in the process of industrial production.　　According to its forecasts, the June trade surplus will fall to 14 billion U.S. dollars. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, which publishes the monthly official PMI, Cai Jin, the vice president, predicts that export growth could decline since June.　　In terms of this first indicator, PMI and the new export Order index for its sub-items have fallen two months.　　However, PMI indicators generally lead two months or so, the April PMI and the new export Order index remained on the rise, so the market believes that June exports will not be a big dive. This month, the impact of tax rebate policy although the government level for this year's foreign trade situation cautiously optimistic, but still issued a resumption of exchange and cancellation of some of the export tax rebate two policies.　　However, the market believes that these two policy adjustment factors will not appear in June. It is understood that the central bank said on June 19 to further promote the RMB exchange rate mechanism reform. Since then, the renminbi has hit a record high against the dollar, rising to 7.7720 yuan/USD.　　Up to now, the renminbi has risen 0.72% against the dollar, 0.77% against the Hong Kong dollar, and devalued against other currencies: a 3.07% per cent devaluation of the yen, a 1.12% per cent devaluation of the pound sterling and a 0.15% per cent depreciation on the euro. Jin Yuan Securities analyst Jing that the time to restart the exchange is very good, coincided with the U.S. dollar stage peak and the euro stage bottomed.　　The real effective exchange rate of RMB is relatively stable, so it has little influence on export.　　Fan Jianjun also said that the current is the best time to promote the reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime, the market for the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to weaken significantly. And for the abolition of the 406 tax Products export rebate policy, the agency believes that because the implementation date is July 15, this policy factor will enable enterprises to seize the export, the June data formation upward impetus, negative impact will be further revealed in the three or four quarter, andThe key drag on exports is the spread of Europe's debt crisis.