June Import negative growth 13.2% export negative growth 21.4%

The General Administration of Customs issued June import and export data, June import negative growth of 13.2%, export negative growth of 21.4%. 1.　　Import and export data are still falling but narrowing. 2.　　The relatively large narrowing of import data indicates that domestic demand has risen and the economy has warmed up, indicating that the policy effect of government-driven economy is obvious. 3.　　Raw materials, ore imports faster growth shows that China's economic change is still the main investment. 4.　　The narrow margin of negative growth in exports shows that the international economic situation has not improved and international trade is still at a low level. 5. Imports improved more than exports and the surplus fell. In the second half, the international trade market will improve, but the basic pattern will not change significantly, China's surplus may be slightly improved.　　Especially in the contrast between inflation and the appreciation of the renminbi, China's import and export data will improve in the second half of the year. 6.　　We believe that the contribution of surplus growth to GDP growth in 2009 may be a negative contribution to the expectation that global trade will fall by 10% to 14%. 7.　　The policy's support for export companies will not change. 8. In the case of trade situation is not optimistic, stimulating domestic demand, especially to stimulate consumption, the absorption of excess capacity of export enterprises may become the main line of policy.