June lending 1.53 trillion exceeding expectations

Central bank moves abnormally early disclosure of sensitive data The People's Bank of China yesterday announced that the renminbi loans for financial institutions in June were about $1.53 trillion more than last month's, up from about 1.3 times times higher than last month, well ahead of previous market forecasts. Zenggang, director of the Banking Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the 1.53 trillion yuan per month increment was a very short-term phenomenon in a special period. Earlier, a number of investment agencies had expected June new loans are expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, but the most aggressive forecast is only 1.3 trillion yuan.　　At the beginning of this year, China's government set a new annual loan of more than 5 trillion yuan, and this year January-June yuan loan data totaled about 7.37 trillion yuan, far exceeded the target of the beginning. "Loans are unlikely to sustain such growth. Zenggang pointed out that the United States also implemented a loose monetary policy, but there has been a watchful voice, that when the economy is stable recovery, too much money will increase the risk of inflation and asset bubbles, so need to consider early how to recover.　　Of course, at present, China's loose monetary policy will not turn abruptly, but should be a smooth transition after the economic rebound. Zenggang admits that it is difficult to tell how much credit is flowing into the stock market and the property market, but this is inevitable and requires high vigilance.　　Against the backdrop of an uncertain economic recovery, credit funds, if unwilling to invest in industry, are bound to invest in assets such as equities and real estate, leading to a recovery in equities and property that is far ahead of the real economy. Xijun, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Securities at Renmin University of China, said it was not difficult to understand the increase in the number of June figures in terms of the micro-operation level. Banks usually track their performance quarterly, leading credit officers to try to "make a profit" at the end of each quarter, making the loan bigger.　　The peak of the last new loan came in March, the last 1 months of the first quarter, when the new number added up to $1.89 trillion. The central bank yesterday disclosed the June increase in renminbi lending and deposits, which was also a "hyper-expected" move. Previously, the central bank always released the financial data last month in the middle of the month, usually after the National Bureau of Statistics published the CPI (consumer price index) data, this time in advance of nearly 1 weeks released two key data. Xijun that the new loans in June are really too big, the central bank must deeply feel the pressure of inflation, so early disclosure to the market, so that the market has more psychological preparation. He suggested that the second half of last year's CPI lower base, is bound to push up the second half of the year CPI Year-on-year gains, the second half of the CPI rise pressure is not small.