June M1, first Super 2 trillion

Experts say the rapid growth in money and credit has made the stock market more liquid. Data from the central bank yesterday showed rapid growth in currency credit and ample liquidity in the banking system in the first half of 2009. Data show that at the end of June 2009, M2 growth of 28.46%, the increase was 2.72% higher than the end of last month, the fastest growth in history, M1 grew 24.79% year-on-year, the increase was 6.09% higher than the end of last month.　　The difference between M2 and M1 is 3.67%, a 3.38% reduction from last month. In terms of credit data, the financial institutions ' renminbi loan balances of 37.74 trillion yuan, up 34.44% from a year earlier, at the end of June, were 3.83% higher than the end of last month, the highest value since the release of the data in April 1998.　　Earlier, the central bank has announced the June renminbi new loans 1.53 trillion yuan, is in April and May after falling back again after the trillion yuan mark. In addition, the central bank data also shows that at the end of June 2009, the National foreign exchange reserves balance for the first time exceeded the 2 trillion mark, 2.1316 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 17.84%.　　Although the first half of the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by 185.6 billion U.S. dollars, less than 95 billion U.S. dollars, but the June foreign exchange reserves increased by 42.1 billion U.S. dollars, the year-on-year increase of 30.2 billion U.S. dollars. >>> interpretation: The tone of monetary policy will not turn to Shanghai Securities Chief macro Analyst/Hu Yuaxiao: From the data, the rapid decline in the scissors of money growth, indicating that China's macro-economic operation of the demand has rebounded greatly, M1 faster growth also indicates that consumption and terminal market activity increased,　　With the acceleration of investment, consumption is active, indicating that the economic operation is getting better and the economic stability has been further recovered. In addition, the surge in credit has led to an increase in money, and liquidity adequacy will remain unchanged in the short term.　　Even in the face of such ample liquidity, the central bank's loose monetary policy tone will not turn, and the individual believes that the government may break through sectoral constraints, not only the central bank in the open market operation, but also the implementation of diversified liquidity regulation. The liquidity of the stock market is more comfortable the Bank of communications Analyst/E Yongjian: June The rapid growth of the money supply is mainly affected by the quarter-season factors, the auto real estate consumption credit, some industry minimum capital ratio downward, and so on, and foreign exchange reserves for the first time more than 2 trillion dollars,　　Or with the recent domestic stock market sustained rebound and real estate recovery related. From non-financial companies and other departments in the medium and long term loans, bills to increase the chain of less growth, or to show more loans to the real economy, in addition, according to initial estimates, the first half of the inflow of Fang funds accounted for 1% of the new loans, 1-May into the stock market accounted for less than 5% But it is certain that the rapid growth in money and credit has made the stock market more liquid.　　In monetary policy, the tone of loose monetary policy will not change, but it does not rule out the possibility of fine-tuning the reserve ratio through open markets. >>&gt: Foreign investment banks predict China's monetary policy Barclays Capital: The central bank will continue to operate open markets, fine-tune interbank liquidity and step up short-term interest rates, focusing on upcoming macro figures and whether monetary policy has changed substantially over the next few months. Goldman Sachs: As the monetary supply and credit scale continue to grow at a rapid pace, the tone of China's monetary policy has been fine-tuned, taking into account the stronger GDP growth in the two quarter of this year, and we believe that a gradual tightening of policy has a positive effect earlier.　　However, we believe that the Government will not tighten its policy significantly in the near future to ensure economic growth and employment. Reporter Xiaopeng Wenli