Lead demand has obvious "anti-off-season" characteristics

Graph Monetta analysts point out that with the advent of the three quarter, the dollar may have a phased rebound, in the case of the weakening of the dollar, the arrival of the off-season will also make the metal price increase support force.　　However, lead demand in the three quarter with a clear "anti-off-season" characteristics.　　Analysts say the rebound in the dollar includes the gradual end of the peak issuance of US Treasuries, the announcement by sovereign holders of major US Treasuries of a more favourable view of the dollar, Fed officials suggesting that the market will not further loosen monetary policy and that the dollar has seen a significant short-term technical oversold. In the medium term, data such as the OECD lead indicators, global PMI and ECRI economic lead indicators suggest that global economic activity is likely to improve further, especially if overseas developed countries enter a significant replenishment cycle in the four quarter, which means that global industrial production activities may be further enhanced, This will promote demand for commodities such as non-ferrous metals. Nevertheless, economic activity in the northern hemisphere from mid-June to mid-August will enter the off-season for the summer.　　With the weakening of the dollar's momentum, the arrival of the off-season will also reduce the support for metal price increases.　　However, analysts pointed out that, although the off-season is coming, but in six basic non-ferrous metals, lead demand in the three quarter with a clear "anti-off-season" characteristics, that is, from July to September, most of the stock exchange inventory of consecutive decline, thus promoting the price of lead prices continuously rising. Such "anti-seasonal" fluctuations in lead prices and inventories are largely "anti-seasonal" in demand: Summer is the peak of lead consumption. On the one hand, with the advent of summer holidays, consumers in developed countries such as the United States and Europe will increase the number of cars, which will promote the stock of replacement lead-acid batteries demand. In addition, according to the current scheduling plan, the world's major market car companies in the three quarter may significantly increase capacity utilization. The increase in new car production means that demand for the original lead-acid battery will also rise. (LI) June-August nonferrous metals trend relatively weak July-September lead price with obvious "anti-off-season" characteristics