Lean meat Essence "swine flu" double blow, take what to save Chinese pork industry? Crowded pig industry who will win?

This topic Comics: Chen Ting Guotai Monthly report shows that the price of live pig purchase still continues to fall.　　From the January data, this is not the scourge, but following in 2007 China's pig Industry "pig blue ear Disease", the pig has about 70 million deaths, resulting in huge production and consumer market gaps, since the rapid increase in production caused by the market law of continuous cyclical change.　　At a deeper level, the root cause of these crises is not in the infectious disease, the additive itself, behind the dispute, China's pig industry is quietly changing: According to statistics, 1980 domestic pig farming, about 90% of the country, 2008, this proportion is less than 35%.　　The industrialized pig-raising mode is forming, and the pig-raising industry has become a new field of capital profit. The huge industrial capital is eyeing the pig herd, not for several years in a row, investors profit-driven as the flu-like short fever, but a rigorous strategy.　　No matter how the price curve slips from its peak and how safe the pig industry is, this high value-added and lucrative industry will be the most envious real fat in the Chinese market, in addition to the state-controlled energy industry. The ambition of foreign pig farmers "we're not just pigs, the change of China's agricultural policy in the next 12 years, as well as the urbanization of farmers, land circulation, large-scale land leasing, is the key to the new agricultural Company, the pig is only the top of the profits of large base companies, agricultural industry capital Operation Outlet, Perhaps the status of this agricultural powerhouse is commensurate with the world.　　"——— a foreign-funded agricultural company, the majority of foreign pig farmers are coerced capital from the professional firms, they are not laymen. August 2008, Goldman Sachs spent hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars, in the focus of pigs in Hunan, Fujian province, the total acquisition of more than 10 professional pig factory, Pepsi into the pig industry, extended to the feed industry chain; 2008 Aigefield into the pig industry, investment 100 million U.S. dollars in Jiangxi, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangxi,　　Hainan and other areas to build pig farms and commercial pig production base, already has 30余家万 head of the scale of pig farms; Chia Tai Group, in Shanghai to invest nearly 10 billion yuan, pig and chicken, it not only has a strong international capital, but also has a strong feed industry base ...　　Some experts and scholars believe that the entry of foreign capital, for the vast majority of guerrilla warfare in the domestic pig industry, is a huge impact on the industry reshuffle has direct benefits; but they also worry that the industrial chain Shang control, will let the right to negotiate Shang. Aigefield (International) Group President Xiang Junhong May 9 in Guangzhou to interview without denying his ambition, he believes that China's pig industry is in the transition from the tens of thousands of households to intensive, large-scale group of large pig company-oriented market pattern. Aigefield decided to enter the pig industry, the goal is to do the Chinese pig King, through the merger model, quickly reached China's first Pig Army ——— annual production capacity of millions of heads. "We want to be a safe and quality pig supplier in China." "and 2008 NewThe Great Garden Agriculture project in Guangdong Province has already begun to produce the agricultural products with trademarks. And the investment company is eyeing China's land transfer and "big base whole industry chain" agriculture. Giant Garden Agriculture general manager Liu Wentian to this newspaper said: "We want not only the pig, also is not hundreds of acres tens of thousands of acres of place, we want the whole industry chain integration and development." "International capital, including the Chinese pork industry in recent years, in addition to the financial crisis brought about by the food industry's risk-resistant ability to highlight the role of the catalyst, but also, China's pig industry is quietly experiencing a qualitative change ——— it is understood that professional farming and loose cooperative farming has accounted for 40% of the national culture,　　This provides a good opportunity for the acquisition and entry of international capital. With the help of modern swine technology, foreign capital has the upper hand in the business model of pig farming. Although there are some obstacles to the convenience of pig-raising in the vast land, the convenient channel to enter is the acquisition, and only in this way can we successfully pick up the butcher knife of profit. From the current situation, the majority of foreign capital is taking mergers and acquisitions, equity participation and other forms of intervention.　　Most of them have a clear sign: To make the biggest trump card: making farmers an industrial worker rather than a market-leading venture capitalist. Chinese and foreign business model competition "ding lei to each pig are numbered, then in all angles of the pig farm put on the camera, pig every detail in NetEase on the live, and then recruit 10,000 netizens, each netizen can see the growth of their own pigs in real time, can raise their own opinion on every detail of pig, You can even run a pig-raising contest to see whose pigs are well fed ... "——— lei June fantasy Ding Lei pig the current domestic model, occupy the dominant position, the majority of" Company + Peasant Household "mode of operation, the representative has delivered genre.　　Some researchers believe that this kind of company model, which relies on farmers, carry out the pricing power from pig species, feed to sales, and even though it has achieved good social effects and is encouraged by the state, may face a greater threat when new and more suitable for farmers to develop new models. At the same time, in recent years the gradual formation of agricultural economic Cooperation Organization of pig-raising mode, showing sufficient flexibility. The traditional inertia makes them weak in coping with the oppression of the market or the big companies, by the loose breed federations and small farmers. "The key time, the respective interests of the insistence, so that the pattern is not competing forces."　　This kind of swine federation, as well as medium-sized farmers, is precisely the foreign investment into the vision of the cooperation.　　An organizer who was ambitious to form a cooperative pig-raising organization two years ago and intended to confront big industry owners admitted last week that a loose coalition could not form an effective fist, because pigs are still in your hands, and pig-farming cooperatives are simply collaborating. "We would rather expect foreign companies, one by one, to acquire us, or we can be shareholders, orWorkers。　　"he said. The advanced model must replace the backward model, which is the inevitable law in the history of human production.　　But in this race, China's capital, with little experience of industrialisation, seems to be at a relative disadvantage. Recently by the major media hype the "Ding Lei Pig incident", in addition to Ding Lei's personal charm, and the pork industry in recent years has been concerned about the relationship.　　According to the reporter understanding of the situation, is currently responsible for the operation of Ding Lei, the head of the pig company, is rhythmic in accordance with commercial rules to provide a large land resources of the county government given the conditions. Ding Lei pig, trying to abandon the domestic existing various pig-raising mode, the farmers from the pressure of the industry chain at the bottom of the reality of liberation. And in the consumer, farmers, government and other aspects, to find a new cooperation and balance mechanism. As an upstart in the domestic pig industry, Ding Lei began to take the eyes of the United States, Japan and other fine pig experience in the successful country.　　More say that, once the model succeeds, this modern pig-raising model has the strength to compete with foreign rivals. Control the price, control the industrial chain "do not doubt the role of financial capital to promote productivity progress, but can not ignore the hidden dangers, in addition to learning, but also should maintain high vigilance." "——— The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Mr Cao from agricultural cultivation, to corn and other varieties can do feed processing, to the cost of pigs, and pig industry downstream deep processing and marketing system, powerful foreign entrants can control more than one link. The low price of pigs is not the effect that these foreign-funded enterprises do not care about.　　Some domestic researchers believe that the pig price itself does not determine the full profit and loss of pig farms.　　With Goldman Sachs, Zhengda, Aigefield, international PE, even including Ding Lei as the representative of the domestic new pig farmers, tens of billions of of the funds into the Chinese aquaculture industry chain, more involved in the agricultural upstream and downstream areas.　　It is understood that Goldman Sachs wholly-owned mergers and acquisitions of pig factories do not operate on their own, generally are hand over to others to contract, they only control the most sensitive part of the price.　　The separation of control rights and management, as well as the mastery of the core of the breeding pigs and the excellent mature foreign low-cost operation of farming experience, foreign companies as long as the control of prices, the control of the industry.　　In the current China's economic lifeline of several major industries, such as energy, finance, minerals, telecommunications, China has maintained a high level of vigilance on foreign investment, except agriculture, foreign investment in the industry mergers and acquisitions, not too much threshold restrictions.　　Pig industry also has a bad sign: At present, China's large number of Chinese into the ocean ternary pigs, this easy to standardize, quantify the production of pig species, will likely be in the supply source on the subjection. However, a more thoughtful question is: Will the pig industry become the second soybean industry in the longer term?　　A case in point is that foreign investment has controlled 60% of China's soybean refineries. Foreign pig raising is not only the competition of industrial chain, but also the embodiment of international financial capital plotting basic industry. Mr Cao, of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, does not doubt the role of financial capital in promoting productivity progress, but does notCan ignore the hidden dangers, in addition to learning, but also should maintain high vigilance.　　Data interpretation of China's pig industry market space is big: annual consumption of about 600 million pigs, 49 million tons.　　To intensive development: 1980 Domestic pig farming, accounting for more than 90% of the country; 2008, this ratio is less than 35%. Low production: Each sow year to provide weaning piglets, China only 17, the United States for 20, Brazil for 25 96 head, Japan 24 92 head (see above); The survival rate of piglets in China is 84%, the United States is 95%;