Li Dahuan: Blue-chip stability is increasingly obvious

On the whole a-share from the previous underestimated state regression to a relatively reasonable level, is a correction of the rising stage, in the short term the force of market inertia can not be ignored.　　Economic recovery is not a success, the performance of listed companies will also fluctuate, which means that the overall market shocks will also intensify, and the market stability of blue chips is gradually important. British Securities Li Dahuan the policy effect of stimulating the economy, particularly the housing market, is gradually working, with the total number of mortgage applications rising sharply and property prices up.　　On the whole a-share from the previous underestimated state regression to a relatively reasonable level, is a correction of the rising stage, in the short term the force of market inertia can not be ignored. The policy effects of the US stimulus economy, particularly the housing market, are gradually taking effect when the world economy is in recovery, and the total number of mortgage applications has risen sharply and property prices have rebounded. This shows some signs of stabilisation in the US housing market.　　Plus the March U.S. purchasing managers Industry index, current indicators, such as the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, have also shown that the economy has improved, and US consumer data has ended a unilateral downward trend, with the US-led world economy or already beginning to enter a recovery period, and the world's economic ice has begun to "melt away". China's economy takes the lead in recovery in this macro background, China's active fiscal policy and monetary policy effects are also beginning to show signs of recovery: The PMI index not only appeared in the April rebound, and over 50% of the economic hot and cold critical point, The current index of China's macroeconomic boom has rebounded for 3 consecutive months, and the first-quarter entrepreneurial confidence index has also ended a three-quarter decline. And the real economy, positive and negative fixed assets to ensure the smooth growth of investment, foreign trade situation has improved; In the 1 quarter, China's total retail sales of consumer goods out of the second half of last year's decline trend, achieved steady and rapid growth. And the credit investment has maintained the high speed growth situation, the liquidity is more abundant. Money supply Indicators M1, M2 growth rates have increased significantly, M1, M2 between the scissors than last month continued to narrow.　　All these indicators invariably point to China's first economic recovery. A-share shocks will continue to intensify in this macro background, a-share market trend and characteristics will be? I think, because the economic indicators of the better, and the economic situation is still unknown, a-share shocks will continue to increase. First of all, since the 1664-point A shares appeared nearly 50% of the sharp rebound, a shares of the static P/E (TTM) has risen to 22.5, the dynamic P/E ratio rose to 19, the city's net rate of 2.92.　　From the historical valuation, the market returns to a relatively reasonable level, the overall did not appear overvalued, especially the higher than the reasonable valuation of the large stocks for the market to provide a cushion for the fall. Second, the overall a-share from the previous underestimated state to a relatively reasonable level, is an error correction of the rising stage, in the short term the force of market inertia can not be ignored. In the medium term, along with China's economicGradually recovery, the gradual stabilization of the peripheral market, a-share market reasonable valuation level is likely to be further enhanced.　　But the economic recovery is not a success, the performance of listed companies will also fluctuate, which means that the overall market shocks will also intensify, and blue-chip market stability is gradually important. Finally, in the long run, with the full flow of the process gradually, market stability is also gradually increasing strength. Full circulation of the market is certainly more reasonable than the share splitting, the momentum of convergence of interests to make a difference. The full circulation of the stock of the psychological threat to investors than the full circulation of smaller, market stability is also gradually increasing the strength, from this point of view, time will be to resolve the positive factors in the market shocks intensified.