Lijiang Tourism: Waiting for the ropeway price new opportunity

The company considered through the additional purchase "Impression Lijiang" project Amendment bill. The company intends to purchase the impression by directional additional way to buy 51% stake, the evaluation value is 210 million yuan, the issue quantity is 9.6838 million shares, the issue price is about 21.69 yuan per share.　　Directional additional, the company's total equity by 116 million shares before the increase to 126 million shares, the actual control of the Snow Mountain Management Committee shareholding ratio from 22.55% to 28.51%. For the sake of prudence, the company's forecast earnings forecasts are below market expectations. Assuming that the January 1, 2009 completion of the acquisition of the impression of tourism 51%, 2010-2011 company preparation for the combined net profit of 41.7671 million yuan and 72.5784 million yuan, corresponding to 2010-2011 EPS respectively 0.33 yuan and 0.58 yuan, significantly lower than the market consensus expected ( According to wind data show, since the issuance of plans issued after the company 2011 EPS average value of 0.81 yuan.　　Among them, the 2010-2011 impression of Lijiang contribution EPS is 0.24 yuan and 0.25 yuan, the company's original business contribution EPS is 0.09 yuan and 0.33 yuan respectively.　　The impression that tourism income tax concession policy expires is the main reason for lower than expected profitability of the project. 2008-2009, the impression of tourism companies enjoy exemption from corporate income tax preferential policies.　　Starting in 2010, the normal payment of corporate income tax, the rate of 25%. Yulong Grand Ropeway Renovation is expected to significantly improve the company's performance. We believe that the company's evaluation of the earnings forecast for the 2011-year performance estimates are more conservative, after the company Ropeway tourist volume growth rate is relatively slow, mainly by capacity constraints, inhibit the normal needs of tourists, once the limit breakthrough, visitors will achieve high-speed growth. 2011 Large Ropeway is expected to increase the volume of tourists year-on-year growth of 400%, three ropeway overall tourist volume is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year, the growth rate is significantly higher than the previous 5 years. Do not consider the ropeway price increase, the original business 2010-2012 years EPS is 0.12, 0.45 and 0.57 yuan respectively.　　In addition, the Yulong Ropeway technical renovation will also significantly enhance the impression of Lijiang tourist volume, the additional items will contribute to the 2010-2012 EPS0.26, 0.33 and 0.40 Yuan respectively. Maintain an "overweight" rating. Assuming that the issuance scheme is completed in 2011 years, it is estimated that the company 2010-2012 EPS will reach 0.12, 0.78 and 0.97 yuan respectively, the existing stock price corresponding to PE is 253, 38.9 and 30 times times, the stock price has basically reflected the value of additional items. Taking into account the company's large ropeway price expectations strong, the company's performance thickening effect significantly, maintain overweight rating.