Long term layout of steel plate

⊙ National Yuan Securities Research Center Consulting Department ⊙ National Yuan Securities Research Center Consulting Department of Steel Plate recently appeared a more substantial increase in price, because steel prices rose for four consecutive weeks, so steel stocks last week, the intrinsic reason for the rise is to raise the price.　　The factors that determine the ultimate trend of all stocks are listed company's performance, the government's money to stimulate the economy can long-term and fundamentally reverse the problem of domestic overcapacity, can really play a role in revitalizing the economy, with long-term sustainable development prospects? It's not the only reason. From the supply point of view, the steel companies issued a limited-value measures appear to have received some success, but this may not be the most critical factor, the price is saved, sales are not up, the performance is still not good-looking. Therefore, the rise in steel prices, in the current obvious buyer's market, the increase in demand should be the decisive factor, and the price of the seller is not related.　　In addition, China's large steel companies are still too fragmented, its price alliance is loose, so the whole industry combined to limit the value of the problem easier thing. Historical data show that April is the traditional steel demand season. In addition, the domestic industry revitalization plan effect shows, automobile and real estate, the two large steel demand gradually become exuberant. Moreover, as steel prices rise, traders ' worries about price prospects and restocking of inventories are also one of the reasons for the expansion of demand. But the traders replenishment inventory and the April demand season will only have a short-lived impact on steel prices, the real long-term role in steel prices are still downstream enterprises demand. Whether the car, real estate recovery can be sustained still need to observe, the long-term trend of steel prices remain uncertain.　　Therefore, if the iron and steel stocks only from the point of view, can only be regarded as short-term trading opportunities, the excavation of iron and steel stocks in the middle of the opportunity to consider only from the idea of the rise is not enough. Industry growth has yet to wait for China's steel imports in April, the first amount since 2006. This from a side shows that the current price of steel with a certain seasonal, or even blindness. As the domestic car, real estate and other industries rebound driven steel demand has a relatively sudden pulse-type growth, suffering from high price cost inventory and the bottom price of product inventory torture of steel companies finally caught a price increase opportunity, of course, will not miss. Unfortunately, the information age, most of the price barriers have disappeared, if foreign steel plus transport costs are still cheaper than domestic prices, it is difficult to imagine what substantial factors to support the long-term rise in steel prices. So the current steel prices can only be a piece of transportation costs, Rob International shipping, container terminal money. Once prices break the "international Steel Price" + "transport costs" of the tipping point, all the price behavior can be considered to the United States, Europe, Southeast Asia, Russia's steel companies in the pockets of money. So before the next big bull market in commodity markets, it's hard for steelmakers to really make big profits. Of course, not excluding individual steel companies have some unique core competitiveness, but the recovery of the entire industry must depend on the strong demand and commodity marketBull。　　From the whole industry, including domestic and foreign, the steel industry is difficult. The government supports the prospect of Baosteel to buy Nanjing steel South Steel, saddle the group's integration, the Tang steel department's integration is in line with the same goal-to improve industry concentration, reduce inefficient capacity, create several steel giants in the future in the international market to win rivals. At present, the world's steel production capacity is surplus, only the Chinese government has the strength to take money to support domestic enterprises continue to maintain high production capacity, because of domestic vigorously promote infrastructure construction to protect growth, China's High-yield can still be digested.　　Under these circumstances, China's steel companies will quickly occupy more market share in the absence of good performance, and in the next 10 years, the possibility of China's emergence of world-class steel enterprises is not non-existent. Back to the steel stock market, because the price is difficult to have a big decline, steel stocks are basically at the bottom, and its finishing time is enough. From the point of view of the rise, there are not many opportunities for steel stocks, but in the strong mergers and acquisitions expected, the rich trading machine will emerge. The main line of investment in iron and steel industry is mainly mergers and acquisitions, investors should try to explore. We found that quite a lot of steel stocks recently have more obvious signs of financial intervention, the Central line of the gradual involvement of the stock market form will not quickly go bad, there is the possibility of the center of the start. If a long economic period of more than 10 years is divided, the steel industry may have a better performance in the new economic upward cycle, as it seizes enough market share and voice in the downturn. In view of the long-term advantages of China's steel companies, strategic investors can be at this point in the layout of steel stocks. Words summed up is: The rise can not be expected too high, the funds involved in the middle line of opportunity, the long-term layout of the time.