Lu Commissar: Even if not raise interest rate hot money can also Bo spreads

China Economic network Beijing December 22 News Today, Lu Commissar published the title of "spreads on hot money important?" "Blog.　　The paper points out that hot money flows are in fact unrelated to the policy interest rate adjustment in China and foreign countries, and that more is closely related to "market spreads" and "appreciation expectation". Article analysis, the increase in the November data was not published as scheduled, the market widely believed: the concern between the U.S. and China spreads continued to increase hot money inflow pressure, is the authorities to raise interest rate Enge main reason.　　Hot money flows in fact and foreign "policy spreads" and thus domestic policy interest rate adjustment is irrelevant, and more and "market spreads" and "appreciation expectations" closely related. The article believes that if hot money liquidity is mainly related to "market spreads", as long as the number of hedges to achieve a tightening, even if not raise interest rates, market interest rate will rise, hot money can easily arbitrage.　　Do not raise interest rates to stop the hot money, but it may cause a serious mistake in the allocation of domestic credit resources, so that small and medium-sized enterprises can not obtain the necessary credit support, the property market fire for a long time to attack. The article says a common guess is: The policy department may be concerned that, with the US federal funds target rate still infinitely close to 0, international capital in emerging markets, including China, which is known as "hot money" in the less stringent day-to-day terms, is already very much under pressure, if China continues to raise interest rates,　　Further increases in spreads may further exacerbate this pressure and make domestic liquidity management more difficult, thus making the policy goal of "Strengthening liquidity management to curb inflation" less effective!　　The article believes that there is a clear bias in the above view, the interest rate does have a certain impact on hot money flows, but the important thing is not "policy spreads", but "market spreads", compared to the "market spreads", the impact on hot money is the appreciation of the renminbi expectations.　　Lu Commissar, the senior economist of Societe Generale bank. (Responsible editor: Wang Huimei)