M1 and M2: Double policy fine-tuning in the second half

June, M1 24.79% to create a new Year's high M2 28.46% to record the June M2 and M1 growth of the "trumpet" has narrowed down to 3.7% Liu Mapping although the volume of credit data has already been announced, but the central bank yesterday released the operation of the June currency credit is still not a lack of new ideas: June,　　The narrow money supply (M1), which represents economic activity, has topped 20% per cent for the first time this year (compared with the same period last year), at 24.79%.　　At the same time, the broad money supply (M2), which represents liquidity, reached an astonishing 28.46% per cent year-on-year, the fastest pace since March 1997 when the central bank released the data.　　In the view of many scholars, these two important figures clearly show that the current macroeconomic recovery is strong.　　"Cannot overestimate recovery" the central bank released yesterday morning's press release, the June M1, M2 year-on-year growth rate of 15.73 and 10.64% respectively faster than the end of last year, significantly faster than expected.　　According to China's monetary hierarchy, M1 refers to cash and demand deposits, which can be used directly to justify economic activity, so this fast-growing indicator is particularly compelling. "The M1 itself is accelerating, indicating the trend of deposit checking is obvious." Physical economy, including real estate, stock market, business and other aspects of the gradually active.　　Said Gao Shanwen, chief economist at Shun Securities. According to historical data released by the central bank, M1 grew only 6.68% in January this year, a record low.　　But then M1 began a strong rebound, the first breakthrough this month to break the 20% mark. There are also scholars to judge the macroeconomic trend according to the gap between M2 and M1. Because M2 includes M1 and term deposits, it represents the potential purchasing power or money supply.　　If the gap between the two is narrowed, it is clear that the ability to "make money" is strengthened, meaning that the economy is more active. The latest figures show that the "trumpet" between M2 and M1 growth this month narrowed sharply from 7.1% in the previous month to 3.7% per cent, the 5th consecutive month after reaching 12.1% highs this January.　　Macroeconomic warming glance.　　However, it is noteworthy that Societe Generale senior economist Lu County, yesterday, particularly reminded that, in view of the property market, the heat of the stock market, the resurgence of savings funds, so "the refraction of the economic improvement level can not be overestimated." It is obvious that the recent controversy over the huge influx of capital into the stock market has intensified.　　Many scholars have asserted that, in the context of overcapacity, many enterprises did not invest in industrial loans, but into the stock market, the property market, "Make quick money." "Need to pay attention to regulatory action" "in the past 1987-1988;1993-1994 and other periods, the M2 is often accompanied by a sharp rise in inflation."　　Nie Wen, a macroeconomic researcher at Warburg trusts, yesterday warned of recent data. It is obvious that, according to the previous three years of more than 10% GDP growth, M2 annualGrowth targets are around 16% per cent, and policymakers set a target of about 17% M2 growth for the year 2009 earlier this year.　　In combination with the macroeconomic signs of recovery, the decision-making level may be more concerned about the negative expectations of the policy, the current market for monetary policy when the speculation has clearly been to the highest point. Many experts disagree.　　Some scholars believe that the central bank's fine-tuning of the policy is already a certainty, even if it does not rule out the more draconian means of restarting the "window Guide", etc. "Recent attention should be focused on the actions of the regulatory authorities.　　"An expert who had previously attended the economic situation meeting convened by the State Council July 9 told the Morning News reporter meaningfully."　　A cautionary detail is that less than a week after the resumption of a one-year note, media reports say the central bank has decided to issue directional bills to some banks to "punish" their credit-growth moves.　　However, some scholars believe that although the central bank as the representative of the Department began to worry about risk and hope to shrink liquidity, but may not be very large, just fine-tuning. "Because the projects that are mainly financed by bank loans have been started, if there is no follow-up funds, there will be large uncompleted buildings, which the government does not want to see."　　Guotai macro analyst Wang Hu said.　　Interestingly, yesterday many scholars agreed that even short-term policy fine-tuning, but the decision-making level is likely to be held in December, the Central Economic Work conference will formally shift the policy tone from "loose" to "prudent", then the real tightening of monetary policy will no longer be suspense.　　Kang, director of the Finance Science Institute of the Ministry of Finance, 15th at the "2009 Government Procurement and Enterprise Development Opportunities Symposium", the second half of the monetary policy may have tightened "fine-tuning."　　Fiscal policy, Kang that fiscal policy in the second half of the operation will also be based on the principle of camera choice, in the specific degree of certainty according to the actual situation to make some corresponding fine-tuning, but the overall framework now seems to have no need to change. Monetary policy trends central Bank to restart directed-vote intern Xuanhuiqing Zhang Yaixia in the market hot discussion monetary policy will be "fine-tuning", the one-year orientation of the vote has quietly restarted. The newspaper reporter learned yesterday from sources that the central bank intends to issue a total of 100 billion yuan of 1-year directional votes to several commercial banks to reclaim excess liquidity.　　This will also be the central bank's first issue of directional votes since September 2007. According to the introduction, the central vote mainly targeted for joint-stock banks, the target is the new credit faster in the last quarter, the issuance rate set at 1.5%, with the public issue of the 1-year central vote 1.5022% of the yield is basically flat. The payment date for the targeted central vote is scheduled for the middle of September this year. But the source did not disclose the size of the specific bank's distribution.　　A joint-stock bank headquartered in Beijing has issued a scale of 10 billion yuan, media reported yesterday. In this regard, Societe Generale senior economist Lu Commissar that the payment date is set in mid-September, its purpose is very clear, shouldTo curb the bank's rush to lend at the quarter.　　He had expected the central bank to issue a targeted vote to curb rapid credit growth. It is noteworthy that the 3-year Treasury note issued by the Ministry of Finance yesterday had reached 2.22% per cent, but only 1.16 times times as much as the purchase rate.　　In this respect, Lu County pointed out that the interest rate upward may be to avoid the stream of the state debt, a low multiples still show that the market demand is not high. Combined with the fact that last week's central bank's bid for 1-year votes was finally issued at a lower limit of 50 billion yuan, another bank trader asserted that the central bank's resumption of the directional vote was likely to be unsatisfactory, given that the open market did not return enough money.　　As for the direction of the central vote mainly for joint-stock banks, the trader admits that last week, the central vote to tender, the main shot is big line. In addition, Lu Commissar also stressed that the central and positive repurchase rates have been rising continuously, indicating that the bank is improving the attractiveness of the open market. The directional central vote will act as a punitive measure, which bank credit growth rate is too fast, may be issued to which bank, whether big bank or small bank.