Macro-Policy outlook for next year: Overall no change emphasizing flexible adjustment

The importance of "keeping growth" is relatively lower, and "inflation-proof" cannot be weighed down, only the "structural adjustment" is the real hand. What will be the 2010 fiscal and monetary policy? Continue to keep the current trend, or fine-tune, or turn?　　Experts interviewed yesterday generally agreed that there should be no major changes on the whole, but could be flexible. Li Huiyong, Chief macro analyst at the Wanguo Securities Institute, said the overall tone would not change too much.　　As this year's economic growth relies heavily on the twin-pine policy, particularly the impetus of government investment, the dynamics of the economy's own growth are not strong, so the overall tone of the 2010 is unlikely to change, that is, a positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will still be implemented. He also pointed out that the policy focus will be shifted to the structural adjustment. Changes in the economic environment will inevitably bring about changes in policy, which are embodied in three aspects: first, the flexibility of the policy can be increased significantly, to prevent overheating or to reserve space for growth. Second, the strength of the policy will be adjusted accordingly. In order to guard against inflation and asset bubbles ahead of time, credit will be significantly tighter than this year. Third, the focus of economic work will shift from quantity to quality, and the adjustment structure will become the key point.　　The Politburo meeting did not specify the relationship between growth, structural adjustment and inflation prevention. "Judging by my assessment, because the structure can be used to protect growth, while the structure can also prevent the balance between supply and demand to control inflation, so for the 2010 three work goals, the importance of growth in the decline, inflation may not be under heavy hand, only the adjustment structure is the real finger. Li Huiyong said that the main focus of the structure is the demand structure, industrial structure and regional structure three aspects.　　The focus of demand structure is nongovernmental investment and consumption, the industrial structure focuses on three agriculture and strategic emerging industries, and the regional structure is embodied in urbanization and regional coordinated development.　　Wei Fengchun, Chief macro analyst at Citic Investment, said that when investors shifted their focus from the policy game and the scale of credit to the real growth of corporate profits, it would be a capital market that could gain stable returns. "The formation of this situation is two, first, the market's self-healing level has reached the goal of continuous employment stability and economic growth, and the second is the stability of government revenue." Wei Fengchun said that 2010 did not have such a condition. "Only when the government's revenue, especially the core value-added tax, corporate income tax and personal income tax can steadily increase, the stimulus policy will be withdrawn." A temporary upturn in the economy does not guarantee the stability of such a good situation, and the government cannot and will not dare to say it lightly, and expansionary policies continue at least until the second quarter. "2010 Years of expansion is obviously fundamentally different from the expansion of the 2009. Ills with dose, is the last resort, the government investment to pull up the economy is a very important period. When the strong heart needle is used, the real recovery of the economy needs to be treated with specimens.　　He said. Tang Jianwei, senior macro analyst at Bank of Communications Development Research, believes that next yearIt is expected to stabilize and remain stable for at least the first half of the year. "The meeting of the Politburo, held on 27th, continued to emphasize the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, and the continued implementation of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, which could be flexibly adjusted in the future." He also said that the macro policy setting is not appropriate, because a year time is longer, and macro-control monetary policy is a short-term policy, according to the actual economic operation of the situation to determine the direction of regulation. 2008, for example, was determined to be moderately tight, but the impact of the financial crisis in the four quarter changed the tone immediately. "So overall I'm not in favor of setting a long-term tone for this short-term regulatory policy, but the annual economic work Conference may set a tone, which I think is relatively appropriate." ”