Market pessimism has not dissipated when property markets are stabilizing

May 24 Close, the real estate sector rose to 5.37%, real estate funds to occupy the first place in the plate, panic fell, real estate stocks welcomed the rebound; but within a short period of time, the market pessimism is still difficult to completely dissipate the "financial" reporter Tzu Bing "in the property market regulation" soft landing "expectations,　　The continuing slump in the real estate sector has soared.　　May 24 Close, the real estate sector rose to 5.37%, the net inflow of real estate funds in the first place in each plate. Guyunchang, vice president of China Real estate and housing research, told Caijing reporter that the primary target of real estate market regulation has been achieved, which has stabilized the house price and stabilized the market's development momentum. If the market does not show ups and downs, then there will be no new regulation policy.　　May 21, Guangzhou, Chongqing announced the property market regulation rules, the two cities of the regulation and control policies are more moderate, did not mention three sets of housing policy. Two factors have become a joint push for the real estate sector to rise sharply.　　However, in the pessimistic market, the fundamentals of property has not been substantially improved, even if the macro-policy to maintain a more relaxed pattern, it is difficult to change the direction of real estate control, precision hit the tone. Market "soft Landing" "This one months market has been clearly reflected, the effect of regulation can be said to be immediate." The main manifestation is that the rapid rise in house prices has been curbed, while real estate investment is still increasing. The goal of the policy is to stabilize housing prices, not to rise and fall, in the current international economic situation is not clear enough, the momentum of real estate investment growth can not be suppressed.　　"Guyunchang thinks. He said: "We look at the real estate market should not only focus on the commercial housing market, land supply and guarantee housing supply, as well as low-cost, small and medium-sized housing supply, are part of the growth of real estate investment." If all localities can effectively implement the housing construction, then this year's real estate market investment growth will still be significantly increased.　　"Recently, the Federation of Real Estate Chamber of Commerce President Niemesen in a program on CCTV, said that, in the second half, if the speculators exit and the developer investment decline while reducing the results can reach a balance point, this macro-control will have a soft landing. Huatai Joint Securities Analysis and monitoring data show that, from the first three weeks of May, the transaction, the primary housing contract shrinkage is very obvious, strong wait-and-see sentiment also quickly from a line to the two or three-tier city spread. May 1 to May 22, the national average of 14 cities in the total area of 251,000 square meters, the chain last month down 50%, down 57%.　　The agency believes that with the two or three-line city's property market regulation of the introduction of the rules, the volume will remain the current downturn and difficult to rebound. According to the Central Plains real estate market monitoring data on second-hand housing markets, from the recent two weeks, the domestic property market turnover has fallen to the historical lowest level since 2007.　　Turnover of second-hand housing in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Tianjin fell by 44% to 92% respectively in early April.In terms of prices, house prices have fallen less sharply, with 5 of the biggest cities falling by 6%, as in Beijing, 6.2% per cent, Shanghai down 5.7%, Shenzhen down 6.7%, Guangzhou down 5.3 and Tianjin down 6.4%, with the biggest declines being in Shenzhen and Tianjin. For the next trend of the market, Zhongyuan Group Research Center Manager Guanving that the central regulation has been on the property market volume to a great blow, short-term housing turnover is bound to be difficult to recover.　　But for many reasons, the whole property market price adjustment is not large, indicating that the current markets are still big differences between buyers and sellers, the estimated price will remain deadlocked for some time.　　Guanving said that in the next or two months time, local market prices will slow down, but the volume is likely to embark on a slow recovery path.　　Real estate stocks rebound difficult to continue the panic of real estate stocks seems to have been the real estate stocks staged rebound provides a strong support, but for real estate stocks in the future, market analysts are not optimistic. For one months, real estate stocks have fallen sharply under the heavy-handed government-controlled real estate policy.　　From April 6, 2010 to May 17, in just one months, the average decline of 10 big property stocks was 33.1%, with real estate stocks falling by 33.6%, compared with more than 300 in the same period as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 15% Indices.　　GF Securities Research Report pointed out that the current real estate stocks panic decline has made real estate shares and intrinsic value of a sharp deviation, this time, smart investors should seize the opportunity to choose to underestimate the variety, gradually absorbed. The agency believes that policy regulation determines the timing of short-term adjustment, and the dilemma of regulatory policy determines the depth of regulation.　　From a policy dilemma point of view, the state's regulation will be enough. GF Securities analysts believe that the government's strict regulation and control policy beyond the past, from the current situation, the price does not fall, the regulation and control policy will not rest; On the other hand, the central authorities ' high sensitivity to Greek debt and the euro crisis, and the dependence of local government financing models on real estate make the government's regulation and control policy　　Of course, the ideal state is to reduce the amount of money, or to reduce investment, but this is very difficult to achieve.　　Then, Huatai Joint securities on real estate stocks may rebound highly cautious judgment, mainly in the property market is difficult to improve the fundamentals, even if the macro-policy to maintain a more relaxed pattern, it is difficult to change the real estate directed regulation, precision hit the tone. Gold Securities in the May 17 analysis of the report that the first phase of industry adjustment, that is, the decline in turnover but the price adjustment is not obvious stage may be the longest.　　At present, the market has not generally lowered the earnings forecast of listed companies, the real estate key listed companies in 2010, the average P/E ratio is 13.2 times times higher than 08 12.5 times times, listed companies valuation level has not bottomed. "The rebound in the first phase of the adjustment is the opportunity to lighten up." "The report notes.