Market to good Chinese property shares in Hong Kong

Yangzhigang in the real estate listed companies, listed in Hong Kong, the Chinese real estate stocks are investors can not ignore a plate, China's overseas development, Huarun land and other quality companies are the representative of this plate.　　As of yesterday's close, China's overseas development was worth HK $120.35 billion, which is comparable to the market capitalisation of its leading boss Vanke. Greentown Rose 160%! Shanghai Forte rises 110%! Since this year, especially in recent weeks, the performance of Chinese property shares has been very strong, attracting the attention of many investors.　　Some Chinese-funded property shares are far more than the growth of China's overseas development and other leading stocks, and once again the property sector soared the characteristics of the collapse of the interpretation of the incisively and vividly. Wanguo researcher Li Hong pointed out that, although the share price experienced a sharp increase, but the current valuation of Chinese property shares relative to a-share property companies have a clear advantage: the average dynamic earnings ratio of mainland property stocks has reached 30 times times, and Nav no discount, while the average dynamic P/E of Chinese property stocks is only about 15 times　　The average discount on NAV's stock price is 20%. Leading companies continue to lead although the 2008 settlement income is less than half of Vanke, but the market value of China's overseas development has been comparable with Vanke, Vanke as the strongest opponents. In January-April this year, the company achieved a cumulative sales of HK $14.63 billion, sales area of 1.578 million square meters, the year-on-year growth of 69.7%, 106.8% respectively.　　Thanks to the good property market, China's overseas sales are expected to break the 3.5 million-square-metre annual sales plan prepared at the beginning of the year. Like Vanke, China's low-key overseas development pursues a secure financial environment that has not increased a single land reserve for 9 consecutive months.　　The company's development in the country is more balanced, in January-April this year, in the western region made 1.728 billion Hong Kong dollar sales, and the Bohai Sea area sales are basically flat. Guotai researcher Yao says　　China Resources in 2008, the settlement income of HK $8.044 billion, 2008 sold open sales amount of 6.11 billion yuan, plus the first three months of the year to achieve the 3.058 billion yuan sales, the company has locked in 2009 residential development turnover of 8.644 billion yuan, for the performance growth provides a strong guarantee. In addition, agile, Shimao real estate and other companies 2009 sales performance is also good. Chen Zholin, Chairman of the board, said the company's first quarter sales of 640,000 square meters, sales amounted to 4.62 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8 times times, together with last year's outstanding sales area, the cumulative sales area of 1.1 million square meters, the company expects this year's contract sales area target of 48%.　　The company currently holds cash and cash equivalents of about 5.1 billion yuan, with ample cash flow. Sino-Ocean property has been locked in the 2009-2010 turnover of 5.4 billion yuan, with 8.84 billion yuan in cash, the net debt rate is only 35%.　　Yao that the Sino-ocean real Estate will benefit significantly from mergers and acquisitions and Beijing-Tianjin market recovery. Due to the lower sales base in 2008 and the Yangtze River Delta market this year, 2009-year first quarter Shimao real estate SalesProduct year-on-year growth of 2.85 times times, about 458,000 square meters, sales growth of 3.46 times times year-on-year, up to 4.55 billion yuan, has now completed the 2009 sales target of 44%, better than the market expectations. Because of the change in valuation model, high beta-value companies with large land reserves are favored by the market, and China's overseas development, which did not increase land reserve and net debt rate very low, has lost a lot of shares this year.　　As Chinese property stocks continue to rise, more defensive companies such as Soho China have been courted by investment bank reports, and the gains in recent trading days have been spectacular. The double factor Drives NAV revaluation Li Hong said last year the market was very pessimistic about the high net-debt rate, saying it was at risk of insolvency, showing nav valuations were low and there were significant discounts on share prices. She analyzed that if the Nav valuation level at the beginning of the year, the current Chinese real estate stocks no discount, not attractive, it is necessary to amend the market conditions. After the market changes to NAV, it will inevitably bring about a doubling of the share price.　　Huarun Land and Greentown China has proposed a rights issue plan, the market reaction is very positive, indicating Nav still have room for improvement. Li Hong that the future two factors will lead to the promotion of Chinese real estate stocks NAV. First, the investment enthusiasm of listed companies increased, increase land reserve, promote NAV, second, the key assumption that the house price rises Change nav, then raise NAV valuation level.　　The next thing, she says, is a restart of real estate investment, which will herald a reversal of the real estate market. Greentown Chairman Song Weiping recently to the media High-profile said, "Do not expect the Green's debt rate will be very low", "high debt rate in our control, as long as the money, to buy land."　　Greentown's recent surge in share prices proved that while the company's balance sheet is a real squeeze, the market is really optimistic about the sales expectations of the property, which is a favored company. The rise of the real estate also provides a footnote for the performance of Greentown. After the annual report, many investors are still worried about the company's net debt ratio of more than 120%.　　But since the housing market rebounded in March, the price of the stock has jumped from HK $5.31 in March 4 to yesterday's HK $14.92.　　Analysis of the industry, some real estate stocks soared because of the large amount of land reserves, market warming led NAV valuation rise, net debt rate is high, strong sales bring high net assets yield. The market divergence obviously noteworthy is that the big foreign investment Bank's rating of some real estate stocks has obvious differences. Credit Suisse's latest downgrade to Greentown was "weaker than the market" on the grounds that its net debt rate was as high as 176% per cent and could not fall sharply in the short term.　　However, UBS gave a "buy" rating to the Greentown, with a 37% per cent premium to the net asset value. In the face of the fierce rise in Chinese property stocks, foreign capital is more calm. From the end of March this year to the beginning of May, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and other international investment banks continued to reduce the real estate, which, in May 4 to 11thMorgan Stanley sold 14 million shares in a few trading days, to a 7.83% per cent stake.　　Foreign investment banks such as UBS are worried that real estate sales are already reflected in the shares of Chinese property shares, and some real estate stocks also explicitly put forward financing requirements, the formation of pressure on stock prices. Li Hong that although liquidity is plentiful this year, exports will be restrained by a sluggish external demand.　　In addition, the developer price increase will obviously trigger a decline in turnover, real estate will not repeat the 2007-year bull market.　　Yao's point is, "hoarding--pushing up the price--------------------------------------------------------------- Yao that the current valuation of China's first-line real estate stocks, such as overseas development, is reasonable and "not cheap". The latest second-tier real estate stocks, such as the first home purchase and China Aoyuan, have rallied very well, mainly because of the cheap valuations and less than 0.8 PB. He believes investors should focus on real estate stocks in Guangdong and Shanghai, where the certainty of 2009-2011-year growth in performance has increased.