May economic data expected to stabilize stimulus policy will guarantee investment

Wang Shifeng this week, the main economic data for May will be gradually released, before the economic situation is fully stabilised, the economic data will show how the trend of change?　　In an interview with CBN reporters, most experts believe that a steady or steady rise will be the keynote of changing economic data.　　Prices are still looking at the bottom. Since June 10, the National Bureau of Statistics will release major economic data, while PPI (factory price) and CPI (consumer prices) are among the first to be announced.　　Judging from current market expectations, the two indices will still show a "double negative" pattern, given the high base period of last year's price.　　According to a Reuters survey of 27 analysts, analysts said the May PPI forecast was 1.3%, down 0.2% from last month; May's PPI was 6.8%, up 0.2% from last month's decline.　　But there is a different view as to when to find the bottom of the price, because there are new and apparently unstable factors in both indices.　　CPI, according to the May China's pig appearance price, white meat factory prices, piglet prices are showing a sustained decline, the price of pig food continues to fall, has been 4 consecutive weeks below the state set of production breakeven warning Point, the situation is still more serious pig supply, may become an important factor affecting the food price trend. In terms of PPI, the New York market's benchmark crude oil futures rose nearly 30% per cent in late May, compared with more than $30 a barrel earlier this year, and China also adjusted domestic oil prices in June. Over the same period, copper as the representative of the international Non-ferrous metals prices also appeared shocks rising trend.　　The rise in commodity prices in the international market could magnify changes in domestic PPI.　　Industrial growth is expected to continue to rise despite a slight slowdown in the chain, the May PMI index showed that manufacturing was still expanding, which would be good news for May's industrial-value-added data. In addition, the media disclosed data from the National Grid Company's Unification Center, which showed that the average daily output fell by about 3.5% in May.　　After deducting the disturbance factors such as holidays, the May power generation decline continued to narrow than April, steel and electrolytic aluminum production increase may be one of the reasons.　　According to a Reuters survey, analysts said the median industrial value for May was 7.5%, an increase of 0.2% from last month's figure.　　Wang Qing, the more optimistic Morgan Stanley chief economist for Greater China, said industrial growth could rise to 8%, as manufacturing was getting more orders from domestic investment projects and exports. China's exports of industrial products have been maintained in the proportion of more than 90%, 2008 industrial exports of goods accounted for the proportion of industrial value added to 62.6%, accounting for the proportion of industrial output of about 20%, but May from overseas demand is still very weak.　　The median export growth rate of the Reuters survey was 23.1% per cent, a decline that widened over the previous month. Societe Generale BankSenior economist Lu Commissar said that from the PMI data in the export order index, suggesting that the export of the darkest moment is over, but does not mean that the rebound will be immediately, at least until around August, it is possible to see the bottom of the export growth rate rebound.　　Stimulus policy or will guarantee high levels of investment since the start of a new batch of investment projects after March, the published forecasts are still more consistent with the view that urban fixed asset investment data will continue to climb at the level of 30.5% in January-April.　　Wang Qing speculated that, because of the support of the government economic stimulus, the May single-month urban fixed asset investment growth can be 35%, compared with April monthly data expansion of 1.1%.　　However, according to CBN reporter, because the main major projects in the peak of credit has already ended in the first quarter, the early period of effective support for investment growth of the credit level is expected to remain stable on the basis of 591.8 billion yuan in April. The CBRC has implemented a rigorous investigation into the financing of bills to expand credit growth in the earlier period.　　Wang Yongli, vice president of the Bank of China, said in a recent interview with CBN that the May bill financing may be zero growth, with the strengthening of supervision, false paper financing will also be reduced.　　Zhang Wenqui, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the next stimulus will still be possible, especially in the third quarter, especially in the second quarter, which would be more likely to be launched in the third quarter, if less than expected.　　According to CBN Reporter's exclusive understanding, according to past practice, the main national economy in June around the major ministries will be through the investigation of the way to explore the first half of the economic situation, and in the investigation and discussion based on the final second half of the economic guidance proposals and submitted to the State Council for consideration. "The policy of stimulating exports and stimulating consumption will not be able to boost economic growth in the second half of the year, and the government may still invest in the second half of the year. "Zhang Wenqui said," Industrial upgrading not only need to invest in hard assets, but also need to invest in management systems and other soft assets, advising companies to prepare some industrial production investment projects to deal with. ”