May economic data Released V-type reversal exposed market divergence

"The market has rebounded for 8 months, the large market stocks have come a belated spring, the index accelerated exerting force, June, the gradual realization of profits", Guangzhou Securities chief analyst Shing played an image of the analogy, "shareholders may also wish to put a summer vacation, the rest of the rest." Into the June, banks, real estate, steel and other stagnation of the weight of the collective rally, although the Shanghai Composite Index yesterday hit a new high, but the cautious mood of investors is more and more strong, the slightest hint of trouble will lead to drastic changes in the market. Starting from today, CPI, electricity generation, credit and other core economic data will be announced, a lot of money in early yesterday morning to leave the field on the sidelines, weight shares have to go soft led to the early plate prev fall, but the afternoon to copy the funds again admission, the last half more hours into Hongpan,　　Finally, a 2787.89-point report, up from the previous session closed up 0.71%, the full day amplitude of 2.4%. Does the economic fundamentals support the stock market continue to go cattle? Can blue chips stay strong?　　This week's data will undoubtedly be a key indicator of the short-term trend of a a-share. Data forecast: CPI and PPI will be the 4th consecutive month for negative CPI and PPI will be the first to be announced from today, the current market widely forecast CPI and PPI will be negative for the 4th consecutive month, the risk of deflation has not abated. According to a Reuters survey of 27 analysts, the forecast for May PPI was 1.3%, down 0.2% from last month, and May's PPI to 6.8%, or 0.2% from last month's decline.　　Among them, CICC expects May price data will stop falling, in which CPI fell 1.3%,ppi year-on-year decline of 6.4%, the decline is narrower than April.　　Yesterday's 8 billion large investment retreat in Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 2787.89 points, Rose 0.71%, once again set a new 10-month high, but the trend of the stock market investors are frightened. After yesterday's opening, the commodity "fever" caused by the rebound in the dollar and worries about May economic data have hit the stock market lower, and the Panorama Capital Flow test report shows that more than 8 billion capital panic fled in early trading, almost all sectors of the industry were sold, resource stocks and the recent sharp rise in banking stocks generally fell.　　As of midday close, the Shenzhen and Shanghai cities total net outflow capital 8.392 billion yuan. It is noteworthy that the China Securities Regulatory Commission in Monday on the "Gem market investors appropriate management interim provisions (draft)" and supporting documents to the public to solicit opinions, means that the start of the gem further forward.　　In the afternoon, insurance stocks and securities brokerage shares by the issuance of new shares by the rotation of the pursuit of buying, have soared, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index to collect red. However, the Panorama data show that "shipments" is still the main keynote of today's stock market, of which the total net outflow of the two cities in Shenzhen yesterday, 3.921 billion yuan, of which the net inflow of institutional funds to 153 million yuan, retail funds net outflow of 4.074 billion yuan.　　Of the 77 industries in Shenzhen and Shanghai, a total of 24 industries recorded a net inflow of capital, and nearly 70% industries were sold out. RecoveryThe road is uneven. The nervousness of the recent market has been the result of a series of May economic data released today.　　From forecasts, the overall picture of May macroeconomic data remains mixed, and the path to economic recovery is uneven. CPI and PPI are now widely forecast to be negative for the 4th consecutive month, and the risk of deflation remains undiminished. In addition, electricity demand in 1 this year will be about 4% per cent lower than the same period last year. The previously released May manufacturing Purchasing Managers ' Index (PMI) was 53.1%, down 0.4% from April, ending a 5-month rally.　　Although the May economic data recovery process has not changed, but "acceleration" began to weaken, as the economic data is coming out, the market performance began to be cautious. "CPI and PPI directly reflect the economic operation of the State, is the most concerned about the indicators, in our view the trend of price-chain growth can be continued, CPI is expected to be positive in 2-3 months, out of deflation," China Merchants Securities chief strategy analyst Chen Wen yesterday in the interview with the reporter said.　　But he also suggested that the attitude towards the market had shifted from "optimism" to "cautious optimism" this week, as the dollar rebounded after a rapid fall, commodity prices fell and inflation expectations weakened. Credit indicators are also one of the most concerned variables for market participants. For May credit growth, most of the market estimates may be less than or equal to April, that is, 500 billion ~6000 billion. But analysts predict that May new loans are expected to reach 664.8 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations.　　If true, it will undoubtedly boost market confidence in the short term.　　All-Out attack has not been desirable for a a-share of the long-term trend, the mainstream view is still more. Tangzhigang, China strategist at UBS Investment Bank, said: "While investors will face a series of challenges in the second half of 2009, the factors supporting the return of the bull market are already in place." In the medium term, low interest rates will continue to increase the attractiveness of equity investments, and the government's upcoming new projects will make visible the future construction demand to maintain a stable sword "Chen Wen also said," CPI in from negative positive, and below 3%, we are optimistic, but if the four quarter to early next year, after the inflation expectations into reality, Monetary policy adjustment, the pattern will be reversed.　　Hu Chintao, the CIC securities strategy analyst, also said that the bottom of the market had been rising and remained optimistic about the long-term trend. In the short run, however, the contradictions between rapid valuations and slow economic recovery are adding to the pressure of market adjustment. "However, there are still serious structural risks in the global economy, and China's private investment is likely to rebound at a slower pace and remain weak outside," Tangzhigang said. With valuations already on the high side, investors need to beware of the risk of a sharp fall in indices. As a result, UBS now does not recommend that investors take the initiative or adhere to the ' Buy and hold ' strategy. "For the recent operation strategy, Shing's suggestion is," large-cap stock, the index to accelerate the increase in risk-free opportunities. NeedleFor the June market, in view of the acceleration phase, investors can gradually shrink the front and gradually redeem profits.　　Technical analysis that the market runs to the previous trend of the deal-intensive areas have a certain technical adjustment pressure, now 2,600 points-2,900 is the July 2008 market downturn in the consolidation area, the pressure is greater. But the sound of seeing is still there.　　"If the May economic data released this week were better than expected, the blue-chip market would lead valuations to continue," Hu Chintao said. Economic data Release Schedule date data June 10 CPI, PPI June 11 Fixed Assets investment, import and export June 12 industrial added value, total retail sales June 15 Credit