May economic data unveiled a-share "summer offensive" or in depth

The June A-share market coincides with the weather in summer--"hot" meaning is abundant. June 9, the Shenzhen and Shanghai cities fell first and then Rose, Sheng 2787.89 points Rose 0.71%, a 10-month closing new high.　　The market seems to be back on the upswing after the IPO will restart and the news that the gem is getting closer is digested. The reasons for the market interpretation of a-share rise can be summed up as follows: The rally in peripheral markets, signs of recovery at home and abroad, and a continuation of loose monetary policy.　　There are reports that credit growth of May or $660 billion trillion, perhaps the main reason for the market to rally again yesterday. However, high valuations have also attracted the attention of some agencies. "Economic fundamentals do improve, but stocks are overstretched and there is limited room for valuations to rise again," said Wang, a strategy analyst at the Guotai Institute. "In addition, the May macroeconomic data will be released starting today (10th)."　　It may indicate the direction of future stock market movements, and yesterday's stock market movements appear to indicate bullish forecasts for the data.　　Economic department "V" shape reversed right? Looking back at the beginning of 2009, the most pessimistic macro-economic situation of the Securities Institute is CICC. "In the early days of CICC's road show, the threat of deflation was particularly high," he said.　　"said the research director of a Beijing fund company. In April, however, CICC began to call it "economic or bottoming." The research director said, "Even if the gold has been turned to long, it is conceivable that the market has changed greatly psychologically and objectively."　　"CICC's research is only a microcosm of the A-share market, but this" change "seems a bit fast for cautious people. "Markets are starting to get out of the fundamentals and are in a phase of madness," Wang says.　　"The reason is that no matter from the capital or fundamentals, a-shares have hidden concerns."　　On the one hand, the domestic economy will not repeat the growth myth once again in the short term, on the other hand the possibility of entering the interest rate hike cycle in the second half, and the SFC restart IPO has entered the countdown, high valuation is difficult to sustain　　But the current "optimistic faction" of CICC is not on the issue of a a-share liquidity concerns, CICC's recent research report clearly suggested that the government's loose monetary policy will continue. Zoshore, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, also believes that "even if the IPO is restarted, the supply of funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities will not be a problem."　　"This week, authorities will start to release the May macroeconomic data, the answer to whether the economy bottomed out may be revealed." CICC expects the data to show that the trend of economic recovery will not change, and that both consumption and export data are more likely to be expected.　　May CPI and PPI may be 1.2% and 6.5% respectively, with electricity consumption likely to be narrowed. Consumer and export Gao Shanwen, the chief economist for Securities and Exports, said, "Looking at PMI trends since 2005, the decline in May this year was significantly lower than the historical average, indicatingChina's manufacturing activities may be in the process of further recovery. And judging by the PMI index, the new export Order index in May was slightly higher than last month, further combining data from the May port throughput rally, suggesting that the process of a significant deterioration of China's exports may be stabilizing.　　"So he is sure the economy is on the right side of the" V "recovery process. "The big blue-chip market, which has been in the June, has proved an investor's unanimous expectation of a warmer economy."　　"The investment director of one of the top ten fund companies told our correspondent that the June strategy of the Fund was to prepare for the big market value stocks."　　Bubble Bounce?　　Indeed, the rise and fall of the stock market suggests that the recovery has been accepted as a mainstream view of the market, but how fast and how much will the recovery be as bullish as it has been in the stock market? "The pace of economic recovery has exceeded expectations, particularly in April, when property transactions have exceeded 2007 years in a row, which we think is unsustainable," he said.　　"Wang said. "There is no doubt about the real estate industry's recovery, but I am more inclined to lower interest rates than the macro-economy," said a property researcher at a Shanghai fund company.　　"What he is referring to is the global low interest rate environment and the expectation of long-term loose monetary policy, which will lead investors to produce inflationary expectations, while investors choose stocks and housing as a means of fighting inflation, and the rise in the number of homes and house prices does not necessarily indicate an upturn in the economy."　　The researcher's analysis is not unreasonable, the "optimistic" CITIC Securities in the latest research report to give real estate stocks the recommended reason is-inflation expectations, real estate demand will be fully released. According to wind statistics, from June 1 to June 9, the real estate sector has risen 4.5%, the fourth place in the rise, the popularity of the degree is self-evident.　　If the performance of the housing and stock markets is largely attributable to ample liquidity, the current rise is not a bubble that has been talked about in the 2007. "No bubble does not call the stock market, too many bubbles as long as the market can not afford to carry on." Michael Wu, president of Shanghai Lion's Asset Management Co., said his words might represent the views of some market participants.　　He argues that the housing market is unlikely to accelerate the recovery because the pace of real income growth has not kept up, while the labour market is still weak. The largest increase in the same period in the financial services sector, a week's rise of nearly 9%, the fund's research director said, "Everyone's recognition of the economic recovery and the bottom of the spreads, are very good for the bank stocks."　　"Brokerage stocks are directly benefiting from the resumption of IPOs and the imminent introduction of the gem." Another recently excellent financial unit, the insurer, has benefited more from the pull of Hong Kong equities. Mike Wu said that Hong Kong and the mainland stock market linkage is very big, one has the slightest hint of trouble, the volatility of a shares increases.　　And the recent sharp rise in Hong Kong market insurance stocks, China's Ping An and China Life a-h discount of about 10%, investors favored the two stocks logically. As of the week ending June 9, the rise in runner-up isColor metal industry. According to wind statistics, the industry rose more than 6%.　　And the asymmetric share price increase is the industry as a whole quarterly profit for the embarrassment of the negative.　　The investment director of the fund company said that as a cyclical industry, we are investing in the trend, and strive to buy at the bottom of the industry, once the company, the industry to return to a higher level of profitability, it is the industry cycle at the top of the approaching, it also indicates the timing of the stock sell-off.　　At present, the Non-ferrous metals industry 2008 Static P/E ratio up to 53, far beyond the A-share average level.　　In addition to the expectation of economic recovery, the future increase of industrial production will increase the consumption and demand of various resources, and the inflation worries also make the international market price of nonferrous metals rise.　　CICC believes that the continued pick-up in prices of commodities such as oil, non-ferrous metals and steel, under inflationary expectations, will spur domestic-related sectors to rise. Because of this, the investment Director stressed that its funds, in addition to following the stock market, also had to pay attention to the performance of the report or exceed the expected stock, especially the growth of undervalued companies. "After all, we can't put our eggs in one basket," he said. He confessed.