MAY macro data released industrial value added fixed investment or double deceleration

Every reporter Wan Xia from Beijing May Macroeconomic data will be announced today.　　The CPI and PPI data were particularly interesting after April, after a fall in the prices of agricultural products, which had been adjusted for the May. Following the announcement of China's May import and export and CPI data yesterday, foreign media had earlier disclosed other macroeconomic data for the May: industrial growth was up 16.5% per cent year-on-year, with data below the media's previous survey of 17.1%; the factory-manufactured price index rose 7.1% year-on-year. Higher than the estimated median of 6.9%; in January-May, urban fixed asset investment grew 25.6% per cent year-on-year, almost in line with the estimated 25.7% increase, while total retail sales rose 18.7% year-on-year.　　The consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.1% per cent year-on-year in May, the first time this year to break the 3% target set by the government, according to a previous announcement. Several institutions forecast a May CPI increase of more than 3% of the moderate inflation line, and the next few months the rally will be further accelerated.　　PPI will be a gradual downward trend, or ahead of the CPI peak. Inflationary pressures are still increasing Wanguo chief macroeconomic analyst Li Huiyong, in an interview with the Daily Economic news, said China's high economic growth situation has not changed. But from the above data, both CPI and PPI are at record highs, and inflationary pressures are still rising. He denies the possibility of a bigger change in policy, saying it is still a policy tightening observation rather than a policy loosening.　　Galaxy Securities analyst Jing Daming that inflation-proof, curb high housing prices and other macro-control targets have not yet reached, the next step of policy regulation will not relax. Although foreign disclosure, compared with April year-on-year rise of 6.8%, the May PPI increase slightly. But many agencies expect PPI to peak soon.　　According to Li Huiyong, the May PPI was slightly lower than April, based on factors such as a sharp decline in international commodity prices in May and a drop in year-on-year gains in the Ministry of Commerce's production price index. Guotai chief economist Li Thunderbolt said that the April 2010 PPI is expected to be the peak of the year, the PPI downward will continue until April 2011.　　The analysis of PPI changes shows that the major factors affecting the metallurgical, coal, petroleum and chemical industries are the three major prices of coal, oil and steel. He believes that, given that China's economy may be subject to a double whammy of the euro-debt crisis and domestic property-control policies, the Chinese economy does have a "hard landing" in the process of slowing growth.　　As the uncertainties persist, further austerity measures at home are likely to lead to a rapid slowdown in China. The agency's CPI rose 3.2% in the year to April, the data CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year. In May, the CPI passed 3% this hurdle has become a consensus of several institutions, this data or will determine the probability and timing of the central bank's interest rate. Jing Daming said the CPI continued to rise slightly over the next two months,Slowly fell back after August. Li Huiyong, however, said that the 3% trend that had broken out this month would continue in the future.　　In his view, the CPI is likely to continue to rise before the three quarter, and a sharp correction in the four quarter, the CPI may increase by about 3.2% per cent in the year.　　"Some lagging indicators reflect China's rapid economic growth and high inflationary pressures because prices were the lowest in the year and the base factor led to higher CPI levels in the middle of the year, and in the second half, especially in the four quarter, the CPI will gradually fall," said Cicc, the chief economist. Industrial growth is slowing but still high if the report reveals that the May increase in industrial value year-on-year growth of 16.5%, indicating a further slowdown in industrial growth, the April scale of industrial growth increased by 17.8% year-on-year.　　Li Huiyong that despite the year-on-year increase in industrial growth has fallen, but the growth rate is still relatively fast and high, the next step of inflationary pressure is still expected to be higher, the market will still have concerns about raising interest rates. In addition, investment in urban fixed assets grew by 25.6% in January-May, compared with 26.1% per cent in April. Jing Daming said the fall in investment or the fall in investment growth and credit falls linked to the new deal, in addition to a higher base last year was another reason for the May year-on-year increase in urban fixed asset investment.　　Statistics show that May 2009 urban fixed asset investment growth of 38.7%. May Total retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year growth of 18.7%, CICC, a macro analyst Jian Xu that this data is mainly the CPI, to remove the price factor, the total consumption of social consumer goods is not obvious increase.　　April Total retail sales of consumer goods rose 18.5%, January-April total retail sales of consumer goods 4.7884 trillion yuan, an increase of 21%. Related news heavy industry electricity increase 30% this summer power rationing may every reporter Wan Xia from all over Beijing is about to enter the summer peak electricity, Tienan, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the 2010 National Electric peak Summer Television Conference meeting yesterday that to curb the excessive growth of electricity consumption in the "two high" industries,　　There is still power rationing this summer. According to the NDRC, the situation in summer is very complicated. There are still many contradictions and difficulties in the process of economic recovery. Some new situations and new problems are also appearing, which will have a great impact on power demand, especially the current severe energy saving and emission reduction situation, and put forward new requirements for power supply and demand side management. In addition, electric coal, water regime, meteorological and other external environment also has many uncertainties.　　This year, the peak of the summer, the overall balance of power supply and demand in the country is expected to be relatively tight, the northwest, northeast China's supply and demand situation is more relaxed, central China basic balance, north China, east China, south of the balance of the tight, peak period of electricity may be. According to Tienan, the national temperature is expected to be high this summer, the peak of the summer period, the national maximum daily electricity consumption may exceed 13.5 billion-kilowatt, compared with the peak of last year increased by 1.3 Billion-kilowatt. The NDRC called for the active organization of fuel supply,Shall not restrict the coal out of the province in various forms, and will give criticism to the provinces which have restricted the province. Since the third quarter of last year, high energy consumption, high emissions industry, the rapid growth in electricity consumption in January-April this year, the total consumption of the whole society increased by 23.9%, but heavy industrial electricity growth of 30%, to the whole society to increase the strength of electricity consumption up to 73.7%.