May new credit or up to 664.8 billion in April

Economic Watch network reporter VECHENGWU According to the Shanghai Securities Daily reported that May credit increase or 664.8 billion yuan, higher than April increase and previous forecasts. Credit dropped from high in the second quarter. April new loans of 591.8 billion yuan, more than 1 trillion yuan in the first quarter of the monthly reduction.　　The new renminbi loan reached 4.58 trillion yuan in the first quarter, close to last year's annual volume.　　Earlier, 8 of the 9 research institutes surveyed by the Economic Observer Network's monthly macroeconomic data forecast will continue to fall back last month, down from 591.8 billion in April.　　Among them, Societe Generale's chief economist Lu Commissar is expected to be the most conservative-between 2500 to 450 billion yuan, the median value is 350 billion yuan.　　The more bullish May is likely to be the same or close to April, with 2 institutions – South-West Securities and Guotai, which expect new loans to be 5000 to 600 billion yuan, and the latter expected to be 5000 to 550 billion yuan. At the same time, there are media reports that four of the construction of workers and peasants in May, the new loans of about 250 billion yuan.　　According to the market, the entire banking sector in May, the new loans are about 500 billion yuan. It is widely believed that, after the stimulus effect of fiscal policy has weakened, the credit explosive growth trend in the first quarter is not continuous, and the future credit drop is normal. After a decline in credit growth in April, the market had no higher expectations for the May credit boom, mostly estimated to be less than or equal to April, or 500 billion ~6000 billion.　　If the new loan reaches 664.8 billion trillion yuan in May, it will exceed market expectations and boost confidence again. "(If the May credit increase is $664.8 billion), the data suggest that credit growth is still strong. Lianping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, said, "Although the absolute volume of credit growth was significantly lower than in the first quarter, the year-on-year growth rate was not low." "According to experience, May loans tend to be less than April."　　Last May, the new loan was $378.5 billion, which was reduced by $145.4 billion from last April. "(If the May credit increase is 664.8 billion trillion yuan) this data has a positive effect on boosting confidence. "The strong growth in credit, which has been going on for a long time since last November, has helped to improve judgment of the future economic situation and to exacerbate inflation worries," said Lu Commissar, chief economist at Societe Generale Capital Trading center.