May new loan growth rate hit 22-year high

The data released yesterday by the central bank showed that RMB loans increased by 664.5 billion yuan in May, an increase of 346 billion yuan. At the end of May, the balance of RMB loans for financial institutions was 36.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 30.6% per cent year-on-year, the nineth consecutive month of growth in credit growth since bottoming out last August. and hit a 22-year high.　　But in contrast to the first 4 months, there has been a decline in medium-and long-term loan and paper financing and a change in the credit structure.　　Oriental Securities analysis that the maintenance of loose policy, central project funds in place, some sectors of the industry capital ratio down and the bank's confidence in the economic recovery is the main reason for the continued increase in new loans.　　The money supply continued to grow at the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) rose 25.74% year-on-year, 7.92% higher than the end of last year, the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 18.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.69%, higher than the end of last month 1.21%. "Under the constant stimulation of monetary policy, the M1 growth rate is obviously accelerated, the scissors between M1 and M2 is further narrowed, which shows that the activity of business transactions has increased."　　Pengching, director of the Monetary Policy Research Institute of the China Academy of Social Sciences. M1 represents the sum of the currency in circulation and the demand deposit of the enterprise, which can be regarded as the production index of the enterprise.　　Since September last year to 2 years, the index has been under 10% for six months in a row, but climbed to more than 17% in 3 April.　　Guo, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that after wandering around 17% in the last two months, the M1 of May rose to 18.69%, indicating that the production and operation of the enterprise had improved further in the past few months. The two quarterly entrepreneur Survey, released on the same day by the central bank, showed that business indices and equipment use indices rose 4.6 and 2.4% respectively from the previous quarter, ending 3 consecutive quarterly declines.　　The macroeconomic index of 30.8%, up 7.8% from the previous quarter, rebounded for the first time after falling for 5 consecutive quarters. The loan structure of short-term loans and consumer loans increased significantly in May.　　Bill financing and medium-and long-term loans declined, while short-term loans and residential consumer loans were on the rise. May bill financing 86.2 billion yuan, compared to April 125.7 billion yuan reduction of 39.5 billion yuan, for the fourth consecutive month decline. At the same time, compared with the April short-term loans reduced by more than 70 billion yuan, May short-term loans increased by 21.2 billion yuan.　　Households added 187.6 billion yuan of credit, more than 147.2 billion yuan last month, increased by 40.4 billion yuan, the proportion of new loans to 28.2%, compared with the 24.9% increase in 3.3% last month, the third consecutive months accelerated growth. The vast majority of national banks have already completed their scheduled credit plans at the beginning of the year, and the remaining loans may have higher credit risk, so most banks are more cautious about medium-long loans, says Lu, chief economist at Societe Generale. And the real estate market back to warmThe subsidy of expansionary policies to durable goods such as automobiles is the main driving factor for the increasing of personal credit.　　Guo said that the reduction in the share of medium-and long-term loan growth compared to last month showed a decrease in government-led lending in the first quarter, and a shift in the amount of short-term loans, which reflected SME lending, to an increase, indicating improvements in SME financing conditions and good changes in the credit structure. The forecast of moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be continued according to the Xinhua news agency, "compared to the previous surge in sharp decline, May loan increase more stable." This retreat is the rational return of credit, from the point of view of capital demand, it shows that our economy is starting to stabilise.　　"Pengching said. January-May RMB loans increased 5.84 trillion yuan, more than 3.72 trillion yuan.　　In the first quarter of credit growth reached 4.58 trillion trillion yuan, the new loans in April plunged to more than 590 billion yuan, the rapid decline in the trend of credit is rare. Whether the huge amount of credit will lead to changes in monetary policy, has become the focus of attention in the market.　　Since entering the May, some asset prices at home and abroad have risen to a certain extent, based on inflation concerns, the market's focus on monetary policy is more hot, but experts believe that based on economic fundamentals, China's moderately loose monetary policy will continue. "While loan volumes and money supply are increasing, it is clear from the CPI and PPI data just released that the economy is still contracting." At present, although asset prices have some increase, but can not be judged on the basis of inflation coming.　　"said Zhuang, an economist at the Asian Development Bank. Guo that credit growth in May was much smaller than it was in the first three months of the year, but it was still growing compared with April, suggesting that China's moderately loose monetary policy had not changed.　　As the current economic downward pressure is greater than the pressure of rising prices, the future of moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be.　　Jiang said: Monetary policy should focus on asset-proof bubbles Mr Liu said yesterday at the Spring 2009 member meeting of the International Financial Association that attention should be paid to negative credit signals and reflect on why the stock market rebounded so quickly. Mr Liu said domestic demand was slowly rising and the government had made great efforts to increase liquidity. M2 and credit are on the increase, and the economic situation is mixed with different signals. "Pay close attention to the negative signals, because negative signs can weaken the profitability of the business, and why the stock market has bounced back so fast, it needs to be considered," he cautions. "Liu Yuhui, director of the Economic Evaluation Center at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Mr Liu's stance showed an increase in inflation concerns, at least in the regulators ' view that a quick rebound in equities is a problem, but that does not mean that monetary policy will shift in the near future.　　Monetary policy will remain "vacuum" in the near future, but there may be a policy inflection point in the second half of the year, at least with less stimulus. Lianping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, also said that as credit grew faster and financialThe system is flush with liquidity, the economy is getting warmer, monetary policy has been greatly relaxed in the near future, and considering that the situation of foreign trade is still grim, the foundation of the economic stability is not stable, the chance of a sharp rise in prices during the year is small, yet the timing of policy tightening has not.　　Maintain monetary policy in the near future to maintain basic stability, to fine-tune the main judgment. The central bank has begun to hedge a lot of liquidity in open market operations. Central bank data show that the former May net cash withdrawal of 65.9 billion yuan, more than 70.8 billion yuan in return (the same period last year net put 4.9 billion yuan).　　A survey of bankers, released yesterday by the central bank, found that 49% of bankers in the two quarter considered monetary policy "lax" and 57.4% said monetary policy would remain the same in the next quarter.　　Survey of residents ' income fell to 10 year the lowest central bank reported in the second quarter of the national survey of Urban Savers, the residents ' income perception index fell to the lowest level in 1999 years, while residents ' willingness to buy cars has been kept to a high level.　　Liu Cheng residents believe that the current high house prices survey shows that more than 60% residents believe that the current housing prices "high, difficult to accept", home purchase will still be in a lower position ——— ready to buy in the next 3 months, the proportion of residents to 15.8%, compared to the last quarter, a decrease of 0.9%. In the survey, the proportion of residents rising in future housing prices is increasing, bearish decline.　　Among them, the proportion of residents expected to rise in house prices in the next quarter rose to 25.3%, a 9.5% increase from 1, while the proportion of residents expected to fall in house prices dropped to 14.5%, down 15.1% from the previous quarter.　　But residents ' willingness to buy cars has been at a high level this year, hitting record highs of 12.2% this season, up 0.2% from the previous quarter.　　Spending will fall to a historic minimum survey also shows that two quarters of residents will decline in consumption, saving and investment will increase. 47% of urban residents choose to "save more" in arranging their spending, to the highest level in history, and 15.1% to "spend more" to the lowest.　　Choose "more investment" accounted for the ratio rose to 37.9%, two consecutive quarters increase, cumulative increase of 8.8%. The central bank's analysis suggests that a rise in savings and consumption shows that, with the gradual expansion of the income reduction and uncertainty about the future income, urban residents spend more cautiously.　　The rise in savings suggests that the outlook for consumption is not rosy, roughly in the second half of the year, with retail declines likely to be hard to avoid unless further new stimulus policies are made directly for consumption, the chief economist of Societe Generale said.　　Not optimistic about future income expectations in the two quarter of this year, urban residents in the current income perception index of 8.6%, a sharp fall of 20% from the 1 quarter, is the lowest level since the 1999 survey. Residents are also not optimistic about future earnings, with the future income confidence index of just 3.4%, down 14.3 and 16.9% from the previous quarter and the same period last year.