May PPI Innovation low-yield surplus problem

The National Bureau of Statistics reported yesterday that the May Industrial product Price index (PPI) fell 7.2% year-on-year, a decline of 0.6% from April, a sixth consecutive month of decline, and a new low since 1996. If you look at the PPI data, the prices of commodities and raw materials are mixed.　　As international crude oil prices rebound, May crude oil factory prices continue to narrow, May year-on-year decline of 50.6%, compared to April 53.6% narrowed 3%. Steel and chemical products and other parts of overcapacity industry prices led down. According to the data, the price of ordinary large steel fell 28.1%, the decline was increased by 2.1% last month.　　Some of the chemical products factory prices downward pressure. It is worth mentioning that this month's PPI data releases a vague signal.　　On the one hand, PPI is declining compared with the same period last year, but on the other hand, if from the month-chain view, PPI has been two consecutive months, the end of the seven consecutive months before the downward trend of the chain.　　The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that, from the monthly price changes in the chain, oil and gas mining, petroleum processing and coking, chemical fiber, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry, the main products prices have been three consecutive months of rising, are showing a clear rebound trend.　　According to the National Bureau of Statistics on the same day, the year-on-year decline in PPI indicates that the negative impact of the international financial crisis on the real economy is still increasing.　　The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that in terms of supply and demand, the overall oversupply of Chinese industrial products is difficult to change in the short term, which inhibits the rapid rebound of PPI in China.　　Indeed, in the view of many economists, the decline in PPI year-on-year growth is essentially the economic problem of overcapacity.　　"China's PPI data will remain very negative," said Mike Mack, a macroeconomic analyst at Fitch Ratings International, in an interview with the Morning Post reporter yesterday. "For many years, the Chinese government has been overly reliant on exports. I don't see any change. "With the disappearance of external demand, the problem of domestic overcapacity is naturally evident and is expected to last long," said Mike. Chedon, an analyst at the Overseas Chinese Bank of Singapore, also believes that the latest PPI data actually reflects overcapacity over the past few months. He expects some sectors to continue to "inventory" in the next few months.