Medium-term bill issuance sags the real economy is slightly weak

Excess liquidity, the success of the direct financing of the spring, the low rate of issuance of interest rates for short-term financing coupons, medium-term bills, corporate debt and other varieties of the circulation of a rising; but on the other hand, due to excess liquidity, the low level of two-level market yields continue to press the market to issue　　It has also allowed underwriting teams such as banks to start grumbling. With one or two-tier market yields flat, the arbitrage space between the two-tier markets narrowed sharply, and bond issuance in the interbank market shrank sharply since May.　　The May medium-term vote was only 40.2 billion yuan, equivalent to 40% of the average monthly circulation in the previous two months.　　On the other hand, as a result of the issuance of such a large number of loans for the return of banks, for commercial banks, the attraction of the main holder has been greatly reduced.　　Interest rate upside down all the changes are due to the secondary market between the yield is flat, or even upside down.　　June 3, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group Co., Ltd. 2009 the first phase of the medium-term bill (09 MTN1) issued, the bond credit rating of AAA, 5 years, the total issue amount of 3 billion yuan, par annual interest rate of 3.71%.　　June 4, the 09 China-Canton Nuclear MTN1 Two-level market transaction minimum yield has reached 3.7%, and the first-rate market yield is only a difference of 1 basis points.　　This means that there is no room for conventional arbitrage by buying at the primary market and selling in the two market.　　In fact, the market has started to plummet since April this year, according to Bond Underwriters, a joint-stock Bank investment banking department. April 1, Shen Nen (Group) Co., Ltd. issued 3 billion yuan, 5-year medium-term paper, note grade AAA, the issue of the coupon rate of 3.45%, due to the low interest rate, the next day, the bond in the two-level market to 3.6% of the yield was sold.　　The one or two-tier market returns are upside down. The dramatic change in the bond has opened the curtain on the one or two-tier market yield upside down.　　Before that, the first-tier market and the level two market basically maintained about 20 basis points of spreads, thus creating a quarterly blowout. "At that time, the underwriting team was not worried about distribution.　　"The investment bank of ICBC said. Both supply and demand led to a surge in circulation.　　According to the Chinese debt net statistics, as of the end of the first quarter, a total of 55 issue of short-term financing coupons, the cumulative size of 92.5 billion yuan, the medium-term paper 26, the cumulative issue of 167.1 billion yuan, about the equivalent of last year's annual distribution scale.　　But from April onwards, with the two-tier market yields higher, the one or two-tier market spreads began to shrink rapidly, until upside down. "Basically, many of the bonds issued in April put investors on hold.　　"The bond trading team points out that upside down is basically 20 basis points. Take the above 09 votes for example.　　June 5, the two-tier market valuation yield of about 3.7%, compared with the original issuance rate of 3.45%, there are 25 basis points upside down. Similarly, the April 10 issue of the 09 Shanghai City cast Two, 50Billion, 3-year medium-term bills, but also the same fate.　　At that time, the coupon issue rate of 3.5%, and the June 5 two-level market valuation rate of return, has reached 3.71%, upside down 21 basis points.　　But after entering the May, in the multi-power game, the market has also had a brief repair. May 14, Huaneng International 2009 first phase of the issue of medium-term bills reversed the previous upside down situation. The issuance amount of the bill is 4 billion yuan, with a period of 5 years and an interest rate of 3.72%.　　Issued the next day, that is, in the two-tier market, 10-point arbitrage space.　　But since then, as the two-tier market returns, the arbitrage space narrowed again, until basically flat.　　The main contract sales of one or two-tier market changes, so that the underwriting team pressure doubled, directly caused the circulation of large shrinkage. "A while ago, the one or two-tier market was upside down, causing investors to drop enthusiasm and the underwriting group had to underwrite most of the bonds."　　"said a person at a state-owned bank investment banking department.　　At present, with the medium and short of the main underwriting and underwriting qualifications for commercial banks, CICC and Citic two securities companies. But obviously, in the one or two-tier market yield upside down, the more underwriting, the more the book floating losses.　　This makes the commercial bank's underwriting enthusiasm greatly reduced.　　In May, the circulation of the Chinese vote was only 40.2 billion yuan, and in 3 April the monthly circulation was more than 100 billion yuan.　　The root cause of this is the low level of market pricing. A bank in charge of Bond underwriters disclosed that the general issue rate of the vote will refer to the two-tier market similar credit rating of the yield.　　Under normal circumstances, primary market rates will have a premium portion based on the two-level market yield, attracting investors. However, the interest rate is not completely transparent, open and marketable.　　The determination of interest rates depends not only on supply and demand, but also on the overall strength of issuers.　　Commercial Bank personage discloses, the general ticket issuer credit grade is higher, basically in AA level above, belongs to the commercial bank's high quality customer, their bargaining power is also very strong, the underwriting team often from the maintenance customer's angle, had to make the concession.　　In addition, due to the liquidity of banks and other institutions since this year, the strong bond market has directly depressed the yield of the two-tier market and transmitted to the lower-level market yield.　　The reason why banks are willing to "do a losing business" is the comprehensive income of the fancy. At present, the underwriting cost of the short fuse is 4, in which the principal is generally able to obtain 2.5 of the underwriting rate, while the distributor divided the remaining 1.5, which is paid in accordance with the standard annual payment.　　The underwriting fee for the ticket is 3, of which the main undertaking generally obtains 2, the distribution group obtains 1 and is also paid by year.　　As a result, the above Shanghai City cast two votes for example, the main bearing a year is equal to 20 basis points can be compensated, the basic can make up 21 points of the one or two-level market returns upside down. In addition, after the main commitment, the bank will obtain the customer's deposit, settlement and other business, these comprehensive benefits will also cover the mainOn the loss of the floating. Impact on loans But in fact, even so, banks are not happy with the big increase in the circulation of their votes.　　The reason banks are still fighting for food is that the pressure to replace them is a big replacement for the loans. "Generally, the enterprise after the vote, will be directly to the loan, if the decision, the enterprise will not or less the bank's loans."　　"The head of the investment banking Department of a state-owned bank said.　　The reporter looked up this year's short convergence of the issue notes, found that more than 80% of the fund-raising uses include "Return of bank loans", and the return ratio from 30% to 60%, or even higher. For example, the June 1 issue of Yingkou Port Group Co., Ltd. in the first issue of the 2009 short-term financing certificate, said that 2.4 billion of the size of the issue, 600 million yuan for the return of bank liquidity loans; The June 1 issue of Dalian Port Co.　　, the 1 billion-yuan issue scale, 600 million yuan is used to replace some of the higher interest rate of borrowings; the January 9 issue of China Electric Power Investment Corporation in 2009, the first issue of medium-term bill of Exchange prospectus, also mentioned 30% for the return of bank loans.　　This led to the banks ' vicious competition between banks, which, in the case of overall earnings, would tolerate a substantial "flood" of credit in the first quarter of the year, exacerbating the conditional concessions on bond owners. Since April, credit began to show a weak growth situation, the month's credit increase from the monthly average of 1.5 trillion in the first quarter, plunged to 590 billion yuan, in addition to the first quarter overdraft factors, the lack of real economic demand for high credit growth is not the main reason.　　In May, credit demand remained sluggish, with the market estimating a single monthly increase of only around 500 billion yuan.　　This has led banks to put too much emphasis on the maintenance of stock loans, thereby exacerbating the discount on investment banking.　　But in reality, this is not a long-term strategy. The state-owned bankers told reporters: "In the short term, this time I do not return my loan, but the next issue is not my decision, sooner or later I will still lose my loan." "This may be a commercial bank in the future to face the issue, that is, with the large enterprises in the direct financing of indirect financing more and more effective substitution, commercial banks where to break through, the commercial bank's investment banking business how to cultivate their core competitiveness, but not limited to price war."