Mental anticipation of economic activity mapping

Krugman is here. Chinese people always have some Nobel complex, the 2008 Nobel laureate in Economics, "Paul Krugman, China Week," natural people. But Mr Krugman's words are not very palatable to many Chinese. In his view, the world economic recession stems from the economic structure of the imbalance, and the world economic structure of the imbalance is due to China's huge trade surplus, and then deduced that the "Chinese currency manipulation." Perhaps there is some truth, but the huge trade surplus, but China does not want to buy things?　　Is there a fair framework for international trade in the United States dollar-centric international financial system? To be honest, although he has been reading a few years of economic books, Mr Krugman's theory is still a little confusing. But this time he had a few other words that I understood. When it comes to the stock market, he flips over the six major stock market rallies in the United States in recent years, which he believes are not exactly indicative of economic trends. Yes, ten years ago, Kecun foresaw the global economic nightmare, which was the biggest rally in the decade. So he told us that he did not forecast the stock market because the stock market was affected by so many factors. In fact, the stock market trend is not directly related to the economic quality, but more with the economic deterioration of the expected to become worse.　　This is really the language. The result of economic activity, to a great extent, is related to people's behavioral psychology, which is related to people's expectation. In the derivative market of economic behavior, the stock market is more influenced by people's behavior psychology and expectation. Some people, called economists, often like to predict the market often and they like to put the markets fluctuations in the box, painted four or four positive, a point, how much amplitude, as if not so accurate, there is no means. It's no doubt that you put yourself on the stove to bake. There is a saying is "know people know face difficult to intimate", in a deeply behavioral psychology and the expected impact of the market, can roughly grasp the trend of the market, showing good means.　　There is no possibility, and there is no need to make it so precise as to be mysterious. This week, the CPI came out again, do not expect or fall. Whether the statistical data can reflect economic reality lies in the selection of samples and the reasonable structure of samples. Now the CPI is a bit like the price of pork kidnapped, pork price changes to a large extent affect the CPI changes. However, the central bank's monetary policy, it is difficult to regulate the price of pork. Like a year ago today, the price of meat soared, and the central bank's tight monetary policy did not curb the rise in CPI.　　Today, we should break the CPI and take a closer look. The rest of this week's data can be interpreted differently depending on mood optimism and pessimism.　　In April, for example, the value of industrial enterprises increased by 7.3% per cent year-on-year, with a pessimistic view that the growth rate fell by 1% compared with last month, while optimism would see a turnaround, "but significantly higher than the end of the year". The data is mixed, emotional pessimism, optimism mixed, which may be the economy's performance at the bottom. One day, everyone's mood is unanimous, and the turning point may be over.