Merrill Lynch's forecast for the exhibition is very unreliable.

Recently, as http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/12165.html "> Japan earthquake and tsunami may have adverse effects on the global semiconductor supply chain, BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Daniel Helyar to look at empty chip manufacturers and their associated companies. Helyar the rating of the communications from "buy" to "weaker than the trend" target price: 16.5 dollars.

Just two days ago, we just issued a notice: The review of the enterprise supply chain predicts that Japan's earthquake and nuclear leakage events have not had a significant impact on the suppliers that provide our products, and that the supply chain of different sources also gives us the ability to mitigate the damage.

Merrill in Japan caused by the earthquake, the ratings from neutral to weak in the big city is obviously the market and supply chain is completely not understand, because whether the exhibition or MediaTek use more City 6, 8-inch wafer, and the Japanese earthquake more impact is 12-inch wafer, in order to analyze the relative European and American manufacturers, the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the exhibition is limited.

As one of the world's leading securities analysts, even if Merrill's analysis of other industries is accurate, the understanding of Merrill Lynch at least last year was repeatedly made in the analysis of MediaTek, the following is an excerpt from Merrill Lynch's analysis of MediaTek in 2010:

March 16, 2010: won the 90% market share of Chinese shanzhai phones, 532

June 29, 2010: Reduced EPS estimate and target price maintenance rating for purchase price: 462

July 21, 2010: Android phone chip will lead to growth next year to repeat the purchase price: 462

September 14, 2010 Merrill Lynch to MediaTek Price forecast: 620 Yuan, the day of MediaTek's 485 NT shares, Merrill Lynch because of the bullish Android phone, the MediaTek target price from NT $540 to 620 yuan, forecast Q3 EPS is 7.2 yuan, actually 6.34 yuan.

September 22, 2011: In China, 3G can still be powerful. Price: 465

November 9, 2010: The future operation does not look weak day Price: 382

At the end of March 2011, MediaTek's share price was $343 trillion, and the following figure shows MediaTek's share price trend over the past year, from which MediaTek's rating of MediaTek was basically a buy.

Look back to see the exhibition, the figure below is a rating of the world's leading analysts, including Merrill Lynch, which has been recommending customers for purchases last year, when almost all of its firms have positioned MediaTek in the market, and this year it has been the opposite of the exhibition, where almost a majority of organizations have rated the exhibition as a recommended purchase. Only the Merrill Lynch rating is weaker than the trend, and the reason is precisely the most unreliable earthquake in Japan.

In view of the mobile phone market recovery in March this year, it is believed that the first quarter of 2011, the sales should be a further breakthrough forecast, which will be the eighth time that the CEO Li Li to take office revenue than expected, but also 9 consecutive quarters of revenue growth, although the recent introduction of MediaTek 6252 may trigger another price war But the 6610 of the exhibition, whether in the cost or the price is not weaker than MediaTek, and even external flash is more excellent, MediaTek if you want to use 6252 to grab back the lost market share is actually difficult.

Originally old Yao thought that Tsai will bring new atmosphere for MediaTek, but not long ago I heard that a big customer of MediaTek has more than 1kk monthly shipments, even if the company can reach only MediaTek's two level manager in the mainland, not even get a better service from MediaTek, So it seems that MediaTek in the concept of customer service has remained in the past few years as a monopolist mentality, so go on, old Yao believes will only let the exhibition to rob more market share.

The above analysis is only based on the GSM market, as China Mobile 2011 years will increase in the procurement of TD, I believe that with the exhibition 40nm TD chip in the cost advantage will occupy more market share, put aside the advancing smartphone and WCDMA business do not speak, In 2011, it was expected that both revenue and profits would be better than in 2010, and it would be unrealistic for Merrill to give the show a weaker-than-trend rating just because of the Japanese earthquake.