Mobile 200 billion TD investment can recover how much?

As in the mobile communications industry for more than more than 10 years, read "Caixin" cover article "TD-style innovation" really have a soul-stirring feeling, especially through the interview details of the reporter learned that precipitated 200 billion of the investment TDs can be from a business to the state will forcibly push industry standards, It is not the Languo of the brick house that is the source of a letter to the country's leaders, inspired by the agitation of local autonomy. If through the factual basis of this article and the Languo seedling industry engraved on the stigma of history, can make those for the fame and fortune and occasion wind, then the value of good. However, this article, the controversy, and more ape in disregard of the author through in-depth interviews of the detailed factual basis, only from the national industry international standards for the country's glory for the people to stand up for the nothingness standpoint, the article and published this article of the Caixin magazine opened hat factory to discredit the country, attack the government's big hat on its Ober, and concocted the " TD value "," from the national strategy to see TD-SCDMA very successful "," Yang Yi back to TD covered Coffin Theory: TD innovative meaning never shallow stop in 3G "," high-level instruction was cut off TD-SCDMA suspect motives are suspicious "and other articles strong TD, for Languo brick home, but in the author read, These articles are full of disregard of the facts of the data, argumentation logic chaos of the bluff language, intended to qualitative position first, it is readable, so grass in this article around China Mobile's TD-SCDMA investment in the industrial value of the issue of detailed commentary straight. TD-SCDMA is only a communication technology, and only can be applied to the communications industry, communication technology, so in the discussion of TD-SCDMA in the value of the time can not be divorced from its contribution to the development of the industry, out of industrial value and, as is said in the "high-level instructions were cut off TD-SCDMA doubters ' motives are dubious. The article talks about what TD-SCDMA's scale investment and the issuance of commercial licences have reaped an international consensus: China does what it says. The international community through the history of TD-SCDMA confirmed: If China put forward a standard, it will be used in their own land, China has confidence in its own creation, vain to China to use 188 billion of investment to buy an international awareness will inevitably laughable. In addition, the industrial value of TD-SCDMA to talk about what TD-SCDMA technology is given by Siemens or Datang autonomous discovery, talk about what TD-SCDMA patents in the proportion of Chinese companies have more than foreign companies and other topics, in fact, are Shini. The industrial value of technical standard is embodied in two aspects of economic value and social value, the following is the first to demonstrate the economic value of China Mobile's 200 billion investment: enclosure: "Rethinking the social value of mobile 200 billion TD investment" 1. How much is China Mobile's investment in TD-SCDMA network construction? Caixin "TD-type innovation" according to the statistics of Nomura, concluded that by the end of 2014, TD-SCDMA Network construction accumulated investment of more than 188 billion yuan. Plus China Mobile's investment in terminal subsidies, marketing resources, conservatively estimated investment far more than 200 billion yuan. The "high-level instruction was cut off by the waist--TD-SCDMA suspect motives are questionable," said the article, according to TD Industry Alliance tracking Statistics, China Mobile has invested in 4.15 million TD-SCDMA carriers so far. Per carrier unit price of 12,000 yuan, the total investment should not be difficult to draw, simple calculation is 49.8 billion. Only look at the network construction, the gap is as high as more than 138 billion, who is the most accurate data? Of course, China Mobile's own statistics. In the 3G construction of China Mobile, TD to build the network of funds by the Chinese mobile Communications Group company self-financing, the provincial companies in the provinces have implemented TD construction funds earmarked for specific, clearly distinguish between the group and the listed company's investment interface, China Mobile Group is responsible for the formation of independent integrity, Can individually identify the physical form and for the project dedicated equipment investment, other existing equipment expansion, real estate renovation and other costs by the listed companies to invest. In the process of 3G construction, China Mobile has always requested provincial companies to strengthen the physical management of TD construction project assets, to ensure that the asset interface between the group and listed companies is clear, and the physical assets of listed companies are strictly differentiated. Therefore, the most authoritative data of the TD-SCDMA special equipment investment can only be from the statistics of China Mobile itself, on the January 9, 2014 of China Mobile Communication innovation chain industry chain Development Seminar---and TD Industrial Technology Synergy Innovation Experience Exchange, Zhengmao, vice president of China Mobile Communications Group, announced clearly: As at the end of December 2013, the total number of TD-SCDMA network cumulative base station has reached 430,000, the total network cumulative investment of more than 150 billion yuan (http://www.c114.net/news/118/　　A815733.html so, compared to the Zhengmao vice president said that as of the end of 2013 network investment 150 billion, Nomura 188 billion is up to the end of 2014, the conclusion is quite reliable. 2. Can China Mobile's investment in TD-SCDMA network be recovered? Caixin, TD-type innovation, also quotes Huang, vice president of Nomura Securities, as saying: Now, the use of TD-SCDMA network is about 30%. With TD-SCDMA users turning to 4G, this huge investment will never be returned. Xiang's "from a national strategy to see TD-SCDMA is very successful" the article is to attack the very retarded, think of these simplistic view, that a network construction investment is only a base station, basic network construction is a comprehensive system, and 3G to 4G is so, the core network, station site, antenna, hold a lot of Poles are can be shared, All 4G base stations are 3G and 4G compliant at the end of the period, and can be made to 4G as long as the software is upgraded. Where can investment be withdrawn? "High-level instructions were cut off TD-SCDMA skeptical motive is doubtful: it is clear that TD-SCDMA investment is not sunk but is being used. The three are the same for the financial understanding of the investment recovery, financial new investment is not back to refer to TD-SCDMA after 5 years of construction, with 188 billion of fixed investment in the construction of 3G network capacity, but its utilization rate has only reached about 30% after the user turned to use the LTE network, so there are 70% Network capability (regardless of the average calculation of peak factors, the fixed investment, which can be reduced to 70%, was wasted, and the construction was not used, and Xiangwen and the text questioned the fact that the network capabilities created by the 188 billion fixed investments were not wasted and could be recovered from the base station and the ancillary equipment's old reuse. Before the article said, China Mobile provinces and companies have implemented TD construction funds earmarked for specific, clearly distinguish between the group and the listed company's investment interface, China Mobile Corporation is responsible for the formation of an independent and complete, can be identified as a separate physical form and for the project dedicated equipment investment, other existing equipment expansion, Real estate renovation and other costs by the listed company investment. Therefore Xiang said can share the core network, the station address, the antenna, holds the pole (to point out the expert one error, the 3G antenna and the 4G antenna cannot share) and so on, all does not contain in the TD Special investment which is responsible by the China Mobile Group Company. This point from China Mobile's annual earnings promotion materials can be seen, including GSM, TD-SCDMA and other basic network construction of the fixed investment and bureau room, transmission, support systems are separate, is not included in the Zhengmao vice president of the 150 billion inside. Instead, in the construction of LTE, the real benefit of the old is the base station, but the article said that all the 4G base stations are 3G and 4G compatible, as long as the software upgrades can be to 4G but also wrong. China Mobile LTE network strategy based on the frequency of its access to resources, a total of D-Band, F-Band and E-band three bands available, of which only F-band and TD-SCDMA with the same frequency, can be upgraded through 3G, the rest of the band can only take the new way. And the F-band on China Mobile only got 20M of bandwidth, far can not meet the rapid development of data traffic demand, and the F-band division relatively clean D-band more spurious, more interference, so in the long term, China Mobile LTE network will be the D-band construction-oriented, F-Band is only short-term behavior to meet the single purpose of rapid network construction. So, please remember that not all 4G base stations are compatible with 3G, especially considering the same frequency interference problem, not all TD-SCDMA base stations can upgrade to F-band 4G Base station. and specifically to the upgraded base station, base station is mainly composed of baseband unit (BBU) and RF unit (RRU) two parts, only radio frequency unit (RRU) can use software upgrades to do the old, and Baseband unit (BBU) must be completely replaced, according to China Mobile LTE equipment bidding priceLattice accounting, F-Band upgrade base station is about F-band New base station price of One-second, that is, to upgrade TD-SCDMA to LTE about 50% of the investment savings. So, ask an expert to remember that not all components of the TD-SCDMA base station can be reused. In this way, China Mobile 188 billion fixed investment construction 450,000 TD-SCDMA base station in accordance with about 35% of the upgradeable ratio (according to China Mobile LTE bidding ratio) and then multiplied by 50% of the old ratio, you can roughly calculate about 32.9 billion of the investment will be LTE 4G construction re-use, Is it possible to say that 17% of the investment can be recycled if it can be converted?　　Of course, this has not been considered. Many of the 4G equipment suppliers in the LTE bidding allocation of China Mobile can not upgrade the TD-SCDMA network of different vendors in its 4G share area but only create new ones. Does 3.TD-SCDMA's injury to China's movement only stop at 188 billion? China Mobile after more than 10 years to create a global coverage of the widest, the network index is best, carries the user most GSM network, but according to the industrial technology development trend, from the GSM smooth upgrades to the WCDMA is the international mainstream technology evolution route, regardless of from the investment saving, the market development, the industrial chain support and so on angle of view, Or from the operators will, investors recognized, user habits, should be the most logical choice for China Mobile. However, TD-SCDMA turned out to be the Languo of China Mobile's wishful thinking all upset, the brick house of the seedling industry unexpectedly to Shing reason to impress the decision maker to use TD-SCDMA baggage to trip up a ride dust leader's decision. How heavy is the baggage of China Mobile after it got TD-SCDMA licence in 2009? The following figure this table at a glance: Carry TD-SCDMA this congenitally deficient brain paralysis son baggage, China Mobile from 2009 to TD-SCDMA 3G license to 2013 to get LTE 4G license 5 years, in the network construction has been doing a thing called data streaming. Why do you want to do data streaming? As the mobile internet began to explode in the 2010, China's mobile network capabilities have been unprecedented challenges: TD-SCDMA Network idling, GSM network congestion, so in order to meet the user's Internet demand to reduce high-end customer churn, China Mobile forced to start to increase the construction of WLAN, As of the end of 2013, the number of AP in the network reached 4.29 million, and the 4.29 million AP input to China Mobile brought about how much business income? The data from China Mobile's 2013 earnings report reveals that the net income of WLAN, which is streaming over 73%, is only about 2.6% of the revenue of wireless Internet service. It is obvious that the construction of WLAN is also an investment that can never be returned. Aware that WLAN investment is beyond its means, ChinaWhy do we have to increase the strength of the construction? It is because the operation of TD Network is far from the expected, as of the end of 2012 through more than three years, China Mobile TD-SCDMA Network has the ability to support 140 million users, but the VLR registered active users less than 30 million, the wireless utilization of the whole network is less than 25%; TD Network streaming Mobile mobile data traffic only 12.5% (excluding WLAN), the lowest province only 6.3%;td users 70% of the voice business and 40% of the data traffic is also hosted on the 2G network. Look below figure China Mobile GSM network data accounted for the growth of the situation, we can not help but feel: the number of TD-SCDMA stations used to carry data traffic is increasing every year, meanwhile, the GSM network, which is supposed to fade in the generational change, has increasingly provoked the burden of data business, Compared with the same period, Unicom's 3G mobile phone data traffic recorded a 185% high growth rate. As Secretary-General of the TD Alliance, Mr. Yang Yi in the "Yang Yi back to TD covered Coffin Theory: TD innovative meaning never shallow stop in 3G" interview stressed: back to the 3G level, Unicom's 3G base station number is with the mobile 3G base station number is flat, but its support 3G user number is far less than mobile, mobile 3G still have more than 200 million users in the net, In this case, mobile 3G investment is not worth, obviously unfounded. I wonder if Mr. Yang can put down his figure to understand the mobile and Unicom's 3G base station utilization and mobile and Unicom's 200 million in the network user data flow comparison situation before making a conclusion? The low-energy and unbearable reuse of TD-SCDMA networks, In turn, the 760 million 2G users and 190 million 3G users moved to China are also a great disservice, while China Unicom's 3G users enjoy the thrill of the 42Mbps high-speed mobile internet surfing, they can only be discriminated against by the stuck of the tortoise-speed GSM network and the congested WLAN network, which has been rejected by the mobile internet Outside the door. Of course, Mr. Xiang in his "from the national strategy to see TD-SCDMA very successful," said the user if the need to use a faster network, in addition to China Mobile also unicom and Chinese telecom can choose, the fact that there are higher requirements of users have chosen China Unicom and the Chinese telecom 3G Network, This is clearly standing to speak not waist pain attitude. Summary: Based on the new "TD-type innovation" cited the telecommunications authority in the perspective of this paper: the larger impact of TD-SCDMA is to delay the entire telecommunications market in China, users and the development of the entire industry has paid the price. For a long time, users have lost the opportunity to enjoy better mobile internet services, and some may even say that TD-SCDMA has hindered the development of China Mobile. With my heart!