Mobile internet start-ups are ready for their time and power

The IT industry has gone through four waves so far. Since the 70 's, I have been in the United States for nearly 30, the "first three waves," the person who experienced. The first wave of the PC revolution was brought by jobs and Bill Gates. The second wave of the rise of the American Internet, is the era represented by Jerry Yang. I was working in Silicon Valley and was fortunate enough to witness the development of miracles.　　The third wave refers to the rise of China's internet, whether it is the speed of development, or users, is a huge miracle. "The biggest and most important factor for an entrepreneur to succeed is the time of birth," says the alien. In the first group of it start-ups, gates, Jobs and Schmidt were both born in the same year. They are the first people in the United States to contact the Internet, these people were born in the 50 's, let them have the opportunity to read the master's, Ph.　　And now, in the IT world, a huge opportunity is unfolding in front of the entrepreneur, the mobile Internet. Why mobile Internet is a great opportunity for entrepreneurs in the era? Because the phone is so important. A simple comparison: China has 300 million computer users, 800 million mobile phone users, computer users to spend a day next to the computer for 3 hours, and mobile phone users to carry mobile phones for 16 hours a day, which means that mobile phones and computers per capita ratio of about 14:1. In other words, when the mobile phone can be online, and can solve all the problems that computers can solve, there are 14 times times the probability that you will choose to do things with mobile phones.　　This is too much to look forward to-if Tencent, Alibaba's more than 100 billion dollar market capitalisation is stunning, we have no reason not to predict the future of mobile internet companies will increase by 10 times times.　　The characteristic of the mobile Internet is that it is closer to the user and more personal, and we are accustomed to putting all kinds of personal information--Address book, text message, phone record--on the handset terminal, which makes it more "intelligent" than other terminals. Second, the mobile phone terminal has a variety of user interaction devices, cameras, voice interaction, the touch of the resulting touch, compass ... Wait a minute. The mobile phone features a variety of functions, almost like a small toy. It is very cool, at hand, more people will use the fragments of time to play mobile phones, waiting for a bus, subway, from one place to another, or a daze to think things ...　　In the past, these times have been wasted. The only thing that a mobile phone has that doesn't have a PC is that it contains geographic information-knowing where you are. PC theoretically knows, but bulky and unwieldy, it is impossible to move around, and the notebook is not convenient.　　Mobile phones, for example, can use the "nearest Me" sorting method to search for "McDonald's" location. Today there is a vicious circle in China's mobile internet-users are worried about the cost of fees, and operators have made a lot of money by voice service, and data services are less lucrative now, but slowly, operators want to see users grow fast but worry that growth is too fast to bring problems, such as US operator T, was blown up by the iphone. So, does the operator have enough platform to develop software? Are there enough phones to run the software now?　　These problems caused by the vicious circle, it is the development of China Mobile Internet is slower than the United States for several years. Mobile Internet entrepreneurship is the time when the U.S. mobile Internet has come out of a blueprint, Apple is now one of the most valuable companies in the world, it depends not on the computer, but the iphone.　　This is only the beginning, when more countries, platforms and users of the scale of development, the opportunity is absolutely huge. The so-called American model is "cheap terminals" plus "full price", plus a lot of good apps developed by developers. The sum of the three is a great opportunity. In China, when are these three conditions met at the same time, or are they met in an alternative way?　　I am optimistic about this. It's important to have the power and timing. In the future, mobile phones will be cheaper. Smartphones will reach below 1000 yuan, or even 2011 years may reach less than 750 yuan. Why is the iphone popular in the United States, because only 200 dollars a, operators also provide subsidies. [Page] Currently, 83% of China's mobile phone users are under the age of 30, of whom 40%-50% have the ability to pay one thousand or two thousand dollars for mobile phones. Thousand yuan within the intelligent machine, if the brand machine can not reach, not the brand, the cottage machine will certainly be achieved.　　Whatever it is, it's an absolute motivator. Do not worry about the problem of channel occlusion, mobile phone products on the channel become very rich. In the past to do a mobile phone software is through monopoly channels, on the one hand, such as MTK on the chip business platform, on the one hand to rely on the SP (wireless value-added service providers), on the other hand depends on the three major mobile operators. After all these channels are deducted, the rest is the software provider, so only petty.　　Now that the situation has changed, today's mobile internet for software developers and users to provide more opportunities, can not go mobile operators, and direct access to the Internet channels, such as the current mobile phone is the most used software is QQ and UCWeb, they rely on mobile phones and Internet channels to do distribution. Payment channels are richer. Traditional Internet channels, the CP (wireless content provider) hard to make products, 60% of the money is like the SP such a large monopoly payment channels and large mobile internet community separated. But in the mobile internet age, the new methods and new channels of Shenzhou, Alipay, Yeepay and so on will gradually develop on mobile phones. Although the current rate of success is not particularly high, once successful, each developer can get 90% of the revenue, not just 30% of the income.　　This will be an unstoppable historical step, encouraging innovation and encouraging sharing is an important gene for the internet to flourish, and things that are compatible with the Internet gene will not work. The time for the big development of mobile internet is coming. First, the application of PC is now relatively saturated--the user's timeare occupied almost, new applications can only be squeezed out of old applications to be successful, for entrepreneurs, it is difficult to rely on new applications to squeeze out an old giant. And in the mobile phone development and application, there are large tracts of product blank, the current mobile phone application is the first QQ, the second is UCWeb, the third is a letter, the fourth is Sogou input method, and then there is no.　　For anyone who wants to be a software person, the timing of making money on mobile phones is today, and it's too late to take the time to start a business. The wave of mergers and acquisitions also supports innovation in the mobile Internet arena.　　In the United States and even China have a lot of related acquisitions are happening, this is a signal, a direction, a compass. In addition, the cost of development is now at a record low. The only money to do the software is the cost of human resources, do not need factories, hardware, logistics, delivery, now software and the Internet direct integration, the cost is lower, higher profits. And the advent of open source software and cloud computing, so that entrepreneurs do not have to buy servers and bandwidth, use how much to rent how much, pay how much, in the Internet store, what products can be put up to sell, good products will quickly word of mouth. In the history of mankind has never seen any business costs so low, growing space so big.　　Don't do it at this time. Computer development Since 35, has slowly formed an ecosystem, ultimately the biggest winner is who? For a while the hardware was great, but slowly, the software and chips were the winners, and they had to push the hardware into the smallest space with a horizontal integration. Another huge opportunity, unexpectedly in the software explosion, is the service.　　on today's PC platform, companies like Dell are now making small profits; the fastest-growing companies are Google, ebay and Facebook, a rule that applies to mobile Internet as well. The point of pain is the opportunity for the future of the Internet, I have seven predictions: one is the WAP era has passed, the real internet era is coming; second, full-featured Android phone prices will fall to 1500 yuan in 2010, 2011 will be reduced to 750 yuan, young users can afford Three is 3G tariff will not fall too fast, after all, operators have to slowly enter from voice-led to data-led process, to solve the problem of bandwidth by developing some software; four is the internet in China's tool era is nearing the end, Chinese young users want entertainment and social, the next era is the era of entertainment, social times Five is the app Store/marketplace charging mode will be replaced by the local charging mode; Six is the game fee will be raised, from now on each user a few yuan to dozens of yuan, which is more hopeful on the phone; Seven is slowly the Internet system will become relatively polarized, high-end users will be more and more,　　High-end users are using mobile phones as a tool for fragmentation, while low-end users ' entire network behavior is based on mobile phones. My advice to entrepreneurs is to steer clear of the core of the Giants, but not to be overly fearful. Its, consider the U.S. and Japanese markets, but understand the differences in depth. The Japanese market has done a good job of paying and retailing, and users don't have to take the money to the streets.　　In addition, do not be infatuated with the popular concept, to dig real needs, but also pay attention to the probability of success. An entrepreneur should be very familiar with the areas in which he wants to start a business. It has been said that every great startup is based on solving the user's pain point. For example, China Mobile Internet today's pain point is the bandwidth is very expensive, the price is very expensive-any mobile software use trend is "many people use at the beginning of the month, to the month is not too bold, and at the end of the month did not dare to touch." This may be the opportunity to start a business, and more than one. Today's mobile users have a lot of pain points, the pain point is innovation, is the opportunity.