Mobile Internet users surpass desktop users within 5 years

Mary Mik Meeker, managing director of Morgan Stanley and head of the Global Science and technology research team, who has "the Internet Queen", reported in Monday that global mobile internet users will surpass desktop users within 5 years.

The world is now in its fifth major technology cycle in half a century, says Mick. The first four were: the mainframe era in the 50 and 60, the mini computer ERA in the 70 and the desktop Internet era in the 80. The current cycle is the mobile internet age. She also predicts that over the next 5 years, users accessing the internet via mobile devices will surpass desktop PCs.

Mick said she and her team compared the popularity of the iphone and ipod touch with the popularity of AOL and Netscape in the early 90, and found that mobile internet usage was growing faster than the desktop Internet. Apple's two products, she believes, are 11 times times faster than AOL and several times higher than Netscape, thanks to 3G technology. Mick believes that 3G technology has reached a turning point, its global mobile user penetration rate has exceeded 20%, although in Central and South America is only 7%, except Japan's Asia-Pacific region is only 13%.

But Mick believes the trend is hurting operators because the mobile Internet uses data traffic primarily. The average mobile phone user's voice calls are 70%, while iphone users are only 45%. Data traffic accounted for 90% per cent of the Japanese operator, NTT DoCoMo, which reported that data traffic on the mobile Internet was expected to grow by 4,000% by 2014. Annual growth rate of more than 100%. This rapid growth will do great harm to operators, but it is a great boon to equipment suppliers and mobile service providers.

Mick says the growth of mobile internet will bring business opportunities, such as geolocation services, time based services, mobile coupons, information push services, etc. In China, Tencent's success proves that virtual goods can become a big business. Mick said Tencent's 2009-year virtual goods sales were about $2.2 billion trillion, with an average of $24 per user contribution in 2009. Online business and paid services accounted for 32% of Japan's mobile industry in 2008, and only 14% in 2000. Mick's report also said that as the proportion in other regions remained less than 14%, the same trajectory was expected to follow within the next 10 years.

Mick says users are more willing to pay for content on mobile devices than desktop Internet. The reason lies in the following points:

-use of convenient/paid system security-built-in systems such as carrier pay systems and itunes support for real-time payments;-low prices-most content and registration services are priced at less than $5 trillion;-the closure mechanism reduces piracy-it is difficult to be pirated because of the existence of content on mobile devices based on a closed system; Existing store resources--operators ' stores and itunes stores--can simplify the discovery and purchase process of content; personalization-personalization is more important in mobile than desktop.

Mick's report shows that social networks use more than email and are still growing fast, both in terms of the number of users and the amount of time they stay. In terms of staying time, social networking has surpassed e-mail in 2007, with 100 billion minutes of global usage per month, and now doubles. In terms of the number of users, the social network has surpassed e-mail in July 2009, reaching 800 million people. Given Facebook's rapid growth, the figure is now expected to be close to 1 billion. Mick believes that the success of social networking has benefited from "a unified approach to communication + a multimedia creation tool in the user's pocket". The Japanese experience has proved the importance of mobile Internet. Page views of mobile devices the share of total page views in Japan's largest social network, Mixi, has increased from 17% to 3 years ago to 72% now.