Monetary policy will remain moderately loose

The economy has bottomed out but the recovery is not yet strong. The first half of the year or nearly 7 trillion of new credit, the central bank since the end of the moderately loose monetary policy to play the most incisively. The second half of the economic recovery at the bottom of the basic confirmation, but the recovery is not solid, at the same time, the medium term will face increased demand, the accumulation of excessive money and credit growth effect of the inflationary pressures brought about by the combined effect of the increase in commodity prices under the joint action of the inflation pressure, the　　The central bank may fine-tune its policies by means of open market operations, in order to iron out economic fluctuations in a timely manner. Credit growth will tend to stabilize the reporter from the authority to understand that the guidance of financial institutions to increase credit properly, to ensure that the total amount of money and credit to meet the needs of economic development is still the second half of the credit policy in the main tone.　　In addition, financial institutions should optimize credit structure, improve the quality of credit support economy development, guarantee credit support real economy development, also is the basic principle of future credit investment. A person in the Bank risk management department points out that there is still room for credit growth from both the supply and demand sides of the current credit market.　　And since the first half of the new credit may be close to 7 trillion yuan, the annual credit new breakthrough in the early year of the agency's estimated 8 trillion probability is very large. But in the second half of the year, credit growth is likely to flatten out in the first half and the speed and frequency of delivery are more evenly based on demand from the real economy, a senior executive of a state-owned bank said in a recent interview.　　But he says regulators are not yet asking banks to shrink their credit scale. In the first half, the average monthly increase in credit is more than 1 trillion yuan, and the second half of this figure or a more substantial decline.　　As a result of the CBRC in early June issued a special notice to require banks not at the end of the month, the end of the end of the loan scale, the second half of the month, credit growth is expected to more evenly, prevent ups and downs. Industry insiders pointed out that the extraordinary growth of loans will increase the likelihood of economic fluctuations.　　If loan growth is not controlled, such as the risk of a large area of exposure after the adoption of tough measures, it may exacerbate the continued decline in credit quality, increase the risk of two bottoming in the economy.　　Moderately loose monetary policy will not adjust in fact, the central bank's monetary policy committee in the second quarter of 2009 has set the tone for monetary policy in the second half of the year: implement moderately loose monetary policy, maintain policy continuity and stability, and guide the rational growth of monetary credit. The reason for the Monetary Policy Committee to make this judgment is that, under the action of a series of policy measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic growth, the current economic operation has seen positive changes, favorable conditions and positive factors, and the overall situation is stabilizing. However, the foundation of economic recovery is not stable, especially the international economic trend is not clear, external demand is falling, the external environment of China's economic development is still very grim. Therefore, in the critical period of economic stability and recovery, we need to continue to implement moderately loose monetary policy, increase financial support for economic growth, ensure the liquidity of the banking system and rapid growth of money and credit, maintain the smooth operation of the financial system.　　While moderately loose monetary policy will remain unchanged, a timely and moderate fine-tuning is what the central bank has been doing in the course of its monetary policy. In order to smooth the impact of liquidity on the economic fluctuations, although the first half of the central bank did not take measures such as lower reserve requirements, but through open market operations, the central bank occasionally release, sometimes contraction, better ensure that the economic growth of the need for liquidity.　　Citic Securities also pointed out in its bond market strategy report for the second half of 2009 that the central bank would not use the required reserve ratio as a tool for the year and would be more likely to fine-tune liquidity through open market manipulation tools. (Miaoyan)