More signals point to stabilisation of U.S. economy in the second half

More evidence from the macro and micro levels suggests that the US economy has emerged from its darkest days and is expected to stabilise in the second half of the year. According to an authoritative survey published in Monday, nearly half of U.S. companies believe sales have bottomed out and hiring prospects are starting to improve.　　The survey, conducted by the National Business Economic Association (NABE) from June 19 to July 1, shows that most companies expect the U.S. economy to stabilise in the second half of this year, but not a strong recovery.　　Of the 102 members of Nabe, 45% per cent said sales had bottomed out in the first half of 2009 or before, and 41% per cent of respondents expected the bottom of the cycle to appear in the second half of 2009. The two quarterly earnings of U.S. stocks, which just opened last week, also confirm that companies are not blindly optimistic. Large bank banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America, have reported two-quarter earnings, although some have been plagued by bad-debt losses.　　At the same time, corporate giants such as Intel have released Better-than-expected results.　　The strong business of companies such as Goldman Sachs and Intel helped the Dow to end its four-week-long decline in Monday, with a five-day rally, its longest record since the year, with a cumulative gain of 7.3% per cent, the biggest increase since March. The housing market is considered one of the hardest hit in the crisis. But more recent data show that the property market has begun to improve.　　The figures released in Friday showed an unexpected rise in the number of new housing starts in June and a sharp increase in building permits, with single-apartment homes starting at a four-year maximum, further consolidating the judgment that the property market has begun to improve. Against this backdrop, Mr. Summers, Obama's chief economic advisor, said last week that the US economy had emerged from the abyss and that confidence and hope were returning.　　Orszag, director of the White House administration and Budget, said 19th that U.S. GDP data in the second quarter could be better than in the first quarter, showing signs of improving the economy. "While the economy may still fall in the second quarter, GDP figures are likely to be much better than in the first quarter, a sign that the economy is improving," Orszag said.　　He said the current freefall in the economy may be over, "but we have not yet reached the stage of sustained economic growth."　　The U.S. economy shrank at an annualised rate of 5.5% per cent in the first quarter, down slightly from the previous estimate of 5.7%, shrinking for the third consecutive quarter, according to the final revised data released earlier. On the morning of 20th, the United States will unveil its June economic-leading indicator, which analysts generally expect will rise for three consecutive months, indicating that the economy is likely to emerge from its worst recession in decades. A Bloomberg survey of nearly 50 economists found that respondents on average expected the upcoming 3-6-month economic outlook index to rise by 0.5%, the first time the index has been up for three months since 2004.