Morgan Stanley released its investment report today to maintain a NASDAQ:CTRP-watch rating on Ctrip's holdings

Source: Internet
Author: User
Keywords Ctrip holding on to the sidelines we
Tags .net close ctrip ctrip will be market mobile net net profit

The following is a summary of the article content:

Ctrip will be in the U.S. Eastern Time November 5, 2013 after the U.S. stock market close (Beijing time November 6) released the third quarter of fiscal year 2013, and will be the eastern time of November 5 7 o'clock in the evening (Beijing time November 6 8 o'clock in the morning) to hold a earnings conference call.

Performance expectations: We expect: 1 total revenue will reach RMB 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 25%, and the guidance of Ctrip is expected to increase 20% to 25%. 2 net profit will reach RMB 238 million yuan, increase 23%. Diluted earnings per share of 0.26 U.S. dollars, an increase of 15%.

Earnings Focus:

Hotel Reservation: In the past 9 months, Ctrip Hotel booking revenue began to accelerate, mainly due to the volume of growth. We expect that the third quarter hotel room bookings will increase by 28% Year-on-year, will make up about 4% of the average sales price (ASP) decline. Hotel coupon costs will stabilize 15% to 20% of the Commission revenue in hotel bookings.

Air ticket Reservation: China Civil Aviation Information Network Co., Ltd. (Travelsky) data show that the third quarter of Ctrip ticket bookings increased by about 11% Year-on-year, with the previous quarter flat. We anticipate that Ctrip's third-quarter ticket volume will grow 25% year-on-year, and the average sales price will be flat.

Profit margin forecast: The second quarter, Ctrip operating profit margin of 25%, better than expected. We expect operating margins to stabilize at 25% in the third quarter. We believe that Ctrip's 2012-year investment has begun to bear fruit, and its marketing activities have driven the number of Ctrip users and market share growth.

Mobile services: In the mobile service market, Ctrip continues to make progress. According to Ctrip, about 40% of recent hotel bookings are from mobile platforms, a record high, compared with 20% in the second quarter. In our view, in the long run, the mobile business will have a higher profit margin than the PC, mainly thanks to high interaction and user viscosity.

Valuation: We continue to maintain the "stock-watching" rating of Ctrip.

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