Most institutions have judged the CPI has bottomed

Reporter 刘薇 Report: The National Bureau of Statistics yesterday released the May economic data, of which the most concerned about the total consumer price level (CPI) fell 1.4% year-on-year, industrial products ex-factory (PPI) down 7.2%, two important indicators still "double drop".　　In this regard, many analysts believe that the CPI may have bottomed out, and is expected to be "positive" in the second half of the year, and the signs of economic recovery is increasingly obvious. CPI may be "positive" in the second half of the year, JPMorgan Chase released an analysis yesterday that the CPI should have been at the bottom in May, and they believe the worst-case scenario of severe deflation is over, and the full-year CPI will likely be 0.1%, up from the previous estimate of 0.5%.　　In the third quarter of September, the CPI will likely be positive. Li Huiyong, chief analyst at Wanguo Securities, said the CPI fell in line with expectations, with PPI falling slightly more than expected, mainly because excess production was more than the excess of consumer goods. The biggest change in the second half, he argues, is that CPI began in the three quarter, with PPI starting to rebound markedly from the four quarter. CPI is likely to change in the four quarter, PPI or will hit bottom in three quarters. "This is because the CPI itself is relatively stable, less than PPI, and it is likely to be the first to pick up."　　"Li Huiyong said. The GDP "8" is hopeful that China's economy is warming up. "The Chinese government's 4 trillion investment is a big driver of growth, and the real effect suggests that it is working," said Dollar, the World Bank's director of China and Mongolia, in Guangzhou yesterday. The World Bank predicts that China's optimism for growth in 2009 is expected to reach 10% per cent, "although not yet 8% per cent according to current forecasts, this should not be a big problem." "Dollar said. But he also pointed out that, in addition to government investment to stimulate the economic recovery, the stimulation of private sector investment and development is the long-term driving force for economic growth, to maintain good consumer spending on the sustainable growth of the Chinese economy will also be very effective.　　He suggested the following measures could be taken to boost consumption further, including improving public education, health and safety nets, and increasing the rate of return on household savings.　　Wanguo Securities Research Department also said that the current economic situation is better than expected, 2010 GDP growth rate is expected to reach 8.5%, this year to maintain the 8.3% judgment.　　JPMorgan report points out that as the economy recovers, the space for cutting interest rates will be limited and it is expected that lending rates will remain unchanged by October this year, but the reserve ratio is still likely to fall by as much as 11%, a situation that could occur when credit is cooling and the trade surplus falls. However, the National Information Center yesterday, through the media published research report, said that the current monetary policy should continue to maintain a moderately loose, interest rates and reserve ratio should not be significantly adjusted. At the same time, monetary policy needs to respond in advance to potential stagflation risks. The report argues that interest rate cuts are not the first choice for the central bank's monetary policy instruments, and that fine-tuning through open market operations and monetary policy isMore effective measures than cutting interest rates. At the same time, the central bank needs to expand the issue and stabilize the reserve ratio to hedge the rapid growth of foreign exchange accounts.