Moving in valuation bubbles and performance expectations

⊙ Zhejiang Merchants Securities Lu Xiaoping ⊙ Zhejiang Business Securities Lu Xiaoping Tuesday The two markets in the market in the large increase in the positive led by the early consolidation region, creating a recent new highs. But there is still no big change in trading volume. Will the traditional theory of price deviation lead to a correction in the market?　　We believe that the market walk in the valuation bubble and performance improvement expectations, the whereabouts of the wandering will depend on the two forces of the game, in the short term will not have a clear choice. The bubble has been fermenting. After a rapid rebound in the previous months, global equities have experienced rising happiness. Analysis from the current stage, A shares of static p/E has risen to more than 25 times times, reached the global level. Such valuations are unlikely to be sustained for a long time. Of course, this is just a static P/E ratio, but the current market is expected to grow near 10% of earnings. Looking back at the beginning of the 2008 year 30% of the expected to end-17% of negative growth, it can be seen that the judgment of the profit increase is very difficult, especially in the economy is a V-type or W-type is still controversial situation. If measured by 10% performance growth, the current earnings ratio is still relatively high.　　This suggests that, in the medium term, the continuation of market dominance will be uncertain, and the ceiling of valuations will depress the overall performance of the market. It's still optimal. From the published statistics and the disclosure of listed companies ' annual Reports and Quarterly quarterly bulletin, the performance of the listed companies with the benefit of government investment has rebounded markedly, such as cement, construction machinery, etc., but export-oriented enterprises such as the performance of the rebound still no obvious signal.　　Thus, as the market as a whole, the hope that the overall level of valuation continue to expand, rather than in-depth excavation of the plate, in the economic recovery under the main line to find the next stage of the key varieties. The valuation bubble and the improvement of the performance of the listed companies are expected to increase in the dual existence. At this stage of the market, homeopathy and still is the optimization, do not prematurely judge the market trend, and do not overestimate the height of the market forecast. The 2,700-point hesitation is the performance of the market at the Choice Gateway. The recent 28 phenomenon has been convergent, the short-term stagnation of the large blue chips gave many other plate active opportunities. The market profit effect is again apparent. The most noteworthy is that, with the economic recovery expected cyclical industry performance than the market, in addition to the restructuring of the expected low price stocks. Perhaps, in the vicinity of this point, since the valuation has been high, it is still the choice of some lack of valuation criteria of the species. The activity of the reorganization unit is precisely the idea.