Multi-empty divergence intensifies direction choice is imminent

Citic Jintong Du Quan The one or two City index this week, the first to raise, bottom rebound. The Shanghai Composite index recovered 2,600 points, and Shen Chengzhi also once tested million points of support, and eventually all slightly higher. However, although the volume of transactions in the cities than in Friday slightly enlarged, but still in the recent low level.　　The author believes that the gap between the more and more air, after the recent high level of repeated shocks consolidation, short-term market or will face the direction of choice. Many gaps intensified yesterday in the Shanghai market was once in panic selling under the fall of the 10th EMA and the 2,600-point integer pass, but then tenacious and difficult to regain the lost ground. The two words of tenacity and hardship, on the one hand is that the bulls are not willing to easily surrender to the bear, the rebound will be handed to the outcome, on the other hand, the amount can not see effective amplification and plate stock differentiation, also shows that the bulls are no longer the courage of the year, and the short power is gradually growing trend.　　In fact, the trend of the Monday market, fully reflects the current multiple gaps further increase market characteristics. From the Bears ' point of view, the stock market's successive rise this year has been suspected of early overdraft of the economic recovery forecast. Despite economic data such as PMI, fixed-asset investment growth and total retail sales of social consumer goods, economic fundamentals are certainly in the process of warming up, but the latest April economic data show that the output of economic indicators has fallen by 3.5% per cent year-on-year. The decline was 2.2% per cent last month; CPI and PPI remained negative, the risk of deflation was not removed; exports fell 22.6% from a year ago, and exports could be a negative contribution to economic growth, as it has not been for more than 30 years. Therefore, once the carries economic situation fluctuates, it is bound to lead to a sharp fluctuation in the already high stock market. At the same time, the stimulus effect of the policy on the stock market gradually weakened. With the further digestion of the 4 trillion stimulus policy, the stimulus effect of the early fiscal policy on the stock market is gradually weakening. In the current economic situation and data, the short-term country to start a new round of large-scale economic stimulus program or related policies are not likely. Therefore, although the management of the stock market is still a plus, but it is clear that the funds on the policy expectations of the hype is not as strong as before.　　In addition, the IPO restart, listed companies refinancing team expansion and other bad factors, will also form a constraint on the stock market. Again from the Bulls angle analysis. First, technically, a-share market is still in a strong pattern, the recent market despite the shock intensified, but the rising channel is still maintained. Second, the fund is still relatively abundant. April M1 growth of 17.48%, indicating that the market liquidity is still abundant, as long as the stock market upward channel continue to maintain, under the herd effect, is still expected to attract funds, and the market also has a certain expectation of interest rate cuts. Third, institutional investors, led by the fund, have yet to show clear signs of backhand shorting. The figures show that 248 of open-ended equity funds averaged 82.11% last week, up 2.9% from 79.21 in the previous week, and the fund's positions rose again to a record high. Further increase in fund positions, tableMing institutional investors still hold a certain optimistic attitude. Finally, from the market performance, the blue chip performance is still relatively strong, the stock index to form a strong support.　　such as coal stocks continued to strengthen in the near future, the maintenance of market sentiment played a big role.　　Facing the choice of comprehensive analysis, more than empty differences, is the market since May 7, the first station on the 2,600 point since the main reason for the high vibration consolidation, and with the shrinking of turnover, short-term market facing the direction of choice. Specifically, the Bulls to continue to maintain a strong and force upward breakthrough, then the volume can be effective amplification, and as far as possible to explore a new hotspot to lead the stock index upward. However, as the major leading plate in the current round of the market has completed a wave of lifting, need to adjust to complete the chip cleaning, so the new collar hot or difficult to effectively form, the stock index further substantial increase in space and will not be very big. On the contrary, if the short find the right opportunity to exert force, then the possible way will be high volume pull out of the long Yin, and the original upward trend of destruction, directly against the trend of investor confidence.　　However, given the relatively low valuation level and the long-term trend of the Chinese economy can support the market, so the market adjustment space is not too big. Comprehensive look, the author believes that with the increase in the number of empty differences, short-term market can not long-term disk in the 2,600-point area, there will be a breakthrough up or down the action, but the upper and lower space is not very large.