My name is MT Purple Card falling Law detailed final edition

0. Premise assumption: Ordinary purple card off the rate of 0.1%, the elite purple card off the rate of 1%, we use the same physical value to calculate the drop rate. All of the elite Ben Violet boss: Naur Inspector of Death Observer Lord of the Great Emperor Reid, president of the Super Milk Lace Lords Mayor Juvensalarac lock the big milk Ambassador My brother Underwear Dragon 4 is 16 physical strength, 2 times a day, need 128 physical value. The back 14 is 12 physical, 2 times a day, and requires 336 physical values. A total of 464 physical values are required. Let's assume that 480 physical values are used to brush the purple card (ie, 4 tube strength) every day. 1. Ordinary Ben. Although the purple card off the rate of 0.1%, but have learned a little probability statistics should be clear, this does not mean that the brush 1000 times ordinary will be out of purple card, also does not mean that the brush 2000 times will be out purple card. Whether the master is a complete random probability or a random sequence. The following list of data calculations: Brush once PT purple boss, the probability of the whole card is 99.9%. Brush 1000 times is not out of the probability of 99.9%^1000=36.7695% Brush 2000 times are not out of the purple card is the probability is 36.7695%^2=13.5199% that if you brush 2000 times Purple Card Ordinary, 86.4801% of the probability of purple card. Then 2000 times Purple Card ordinary need how much physical strength? We assume that everyone needs 6 physical purple carbon (because the number of people who practice beauty and hair is relatively small, so to brush the Inspector Dewopi Master of the people are relatively few, Naur and death observers do not correspond to the evolution of the protagonist card) 2000*6=12000 physical value, 100 pipe strength. Data show, with 100 tube manual brush Ordinary, 4 daily tube strength words, need 25 days. 25 days, the probability of at least one purple card is 86.4801%. 2. The elite. The same method calculates the elite. Brush once JY purple boss, the probability of not out card is 99%. The most can brush 36 times a day, 36 times are not out of the purple card is the probability of 99%^36=69.6413%3 days are not out of the probability of purple card is 69.6413%^3=33.7754% this probability with brush 1000 times ordinary no purple card probability approach. 6 days are not the probability of purple card is 33.7754%^2=11.4078%24 days are not out of the probability of purple card is 11.4078%^4=0.0169% that if you brush all the JY purple boss this: Brush a day at least a purple card probability 1-69.6413% = 30.3587% (Note that this probability does not represent the probability of a purple card every day.) Brush three days at least out of the probability of a purple card 1-33.7754%=66.2246% brush six days at least out of a purple card probability 1-11.4078%=88.5922% (this value with the average 25 days at least a purple card probability close) Brush 24 days at least out of a purple card probability 1-0.0169%=99.9831% comparison before the results can be seen, at the same time using 4 tube of physical strength, the elite 6 days at least a purple card with the probability of ordinary 25 days out a purple card probability almost. 3. Income calculation. Then we'll calculate the proceeds. We use the elite 24 days, the average of 25 days of earnings to calculate. To the elite originally said: 4 tube per day 24 days a purple card at least 99.8831% of the probability of a total brush 24*2*18=864 times elite. Assuming that the average of the elite of the income of 700 experience +7000 gold coins + 2 small strange card + 1.5 equipment (Boss do not drop the card will be off equipment, small strange to assume 2 times out of a device) then 24 days of income is: 99.9831% probability of at least a purple card, income 604800 experience +6048000 gold coins +1728 Small Strange card + 1296 pieces of equipment for ordinary originally said: 4 Tube daily physical strength 25 days at least a purple card of the probability of 86.4801% of the total Brush 2000 times the general. Suppose that the average per capita income of 1000 experience +3000 gold coins + 2 small odd card + 0.5 equipment and then consider the debris, assuming an average of 13 times out of a piece, then 2000 times about 154 pieces, nearly 2 purple card. Then 25 days of income is: 2 pieces of purple Card (do not use the universal fragment, but the need to consume gold 100-200w), 86.4801% of the probability of at least a purple card, income 2000000 experience +6000000 gold coins + 4000 small odd card + 1000 pieces of equipment. Then do a comparison, 25-day brush Ordinary at least three purple card probability of 86.4801%, 100% of the probability of at least two purple cards, the income of 240W experience. Earning gold coins minus fragments of the gold coins synthesized by about 200W less than the elite, little blame card benefits far more than the elite. And the 24-day brush Elite has at least one purple card 99.9831%, experience gains far less than ordinary, gold coins than ordinary more than 200W. Small blame card benefits far less than ordinary. At present, it seems that the general benefits of the brush is a greater advantage than the elite. So the question that can't be fully explained, we need to know how many purple cards I can get, and what is the probability? Below I use MATLAB to do the following calculation: The formula can be calculated and the probability of the I card. This formula is the calculation of the elite, ordinary this calculation is the same, but the parameters are different. And then we sum up the resulting array and we get the following interesting thing: I would like to explain briefly, the number of horizontal axis indicates at least how many purple cards, ordinate probability (1 is 100% probability), we can clearly see from the figure, the elite of the purple card is far more than the benefit of the ordinary. In the previous hypothetical case (the elite of the 4 tube per day to brush 24 days a total of 864 brushes), ordinary this daily brush 4 tube physical strength, brush 6 physical strength of this, 25 days altogether brush 2000 times, the elite of at least 8 purple cardRate reached an astonishing 60% or more. The probability of at least 5 purple cards is over 90%. And to ordinary originally said, at least a purple card probability is not to 90%. And after calculation, such conditions under the brush Elite 6-10 Purple card is more than 60% probability. Now I make the final summary "1" The advantage of ordinary this is: in addition to purple card and gold coin benefits, all other benefits are higher than the elite. For the purple card, its advantage lies in the clear purpose. 2000 times the average brush to get 3 of the purple card you want to reach the probability of 86% of which 2 pieces of the synthesis of purple card is 100% can be obtained. "2" elite of the advantage is: Purple card return, as reflected in the image, 864 times the elite brush, out of 6-10 purple card probability of more than 60%, out of at least 4 purple card probability reached 97%. The disadvantage is that the target is not clear, you can not guarantee that the purple card is what you want, out of the purple card you do not want, and eventually become a panacea, this factor of consideration needs to be considered by everyone, and statistics show that if you only brush the number of purple cards you want every day (for example, brush only 5 Elite A total of 10 times) So the purple card output is greatly reduced. "3" about the time period of the card, which needs to be discussed in detail. (1) If the master uses a completely random drop mode, then any time period, the probability is consistent and applicable, and other players to brush the elite time is irrelevant. (2) If the master is a segmented random drop (such as 100 of the sequence, randomly inserted into a whole card fall), then the other players to brush the number of elite, for yourself, the probability of a larger card. Unless you are in a guarantee that no player brushes fb time silently brush the elite, the probability of falling off the card will be relatively high.