National Credit risk forecast by grand Public International

"Tip" The big public international issued a national credit risk outlook, pointing to the developed countries. Based on what?　　Is the conclusion scientific? According to the Chinese voice of "news in the vertical and horizontal" report, the National Credit risk outlook of 2011, issued by the Grand Public International Credit Evaluation Co., Ltd. said: 2011, the debt system of developed countries is still the main origin of global credit risk, its "sluggish economic growth and fragile solvency will aggravate the national debt crisis, Drag the world economy, and lead to the escalation of the credit war, become the destructive power of world economic development.　　"This is another negative outlook for the sovereign credit of the developed countries since the great public international lowered the U.S. credit rating last year." As early as July 2010, the Grand Public international to the U.S. credit rating as AA, "unprecedented" less than China. In November, Grand International again downgraded America's credit rating to A +. The announcement has made the world an uproar, with some Western media rating it "unfair". What is the basis of the Grand Duchy's judgment?　　Reporter Liang interviewed the grand Public international Chairman Guan. "We live in a world of two superpowers, one in America and one in Moody's," The New York Times columnist Friedman once said. America can use bombs to destroy a country, and Moody's can downgrade a country with bonds. "Moody's is one of the three most authoritative professional credit rating agencies in the world, and the other two are both the S & P and Fitch International, which are American companies. The three companies can save the country by raising a country's credit rating, and can reduce a country's credit rating, allowing investors to dump a national debt and destroy the country. For more than a century, even if the United States is already heavily indebted, the three big ratings giants have permanently pegged AAA's top credit to America's neck.　　The report, published by the international public, not only "stripped" America of its top credit rating, but also ranked it under China. Guan: Judging by our standards, the situation in the United States was considered after the financial crisis, its overall situation is not good, the real economy negative growth, debt rising, but at the same time the fiscal deficit is also growing, coupled with its fiscal spending can not fall down, not credit is very serious, Its only advantage is that it is the international reserve currency, which has the dollar as a distribution right.　　Then why do we go to a +, to a + reason it formally announced the implementation of the second phase of quantitative easing of monetary policy, to the market for no reason to invest 600 billion of dollars, we think it seriously violated the interests of creditors, so we gave it a A + such a level. Big Public International's "big condemnation" the move has caused the uproar, in the report, the big public international gives the United States, the United Kingdom, France and so on 18 countries ratings are lower than the three major international rating agencies credit rating. On the contrary, 9 countries, including China, Russia, Brazil and India, have given credit ratings higher than the three major rating agencies. Faced with a monopoly of more than 90% of the world's credit rating of the three giants, as a challenger to the emergence of the grand public international this blatant challenge authority, questioning the threeRating agencies ' credit rating system. Guan: Its core ideas are embodied in five aspects: first, they sort the political order of different countries according to western political ideas; Secondly, they rank the economic power of different countries according to GDP per capita; These two are not necessarily linked to debt repayment capacity, and third, They judged the country's future economic prospects on the basis of a country's financial and economic openness; This is even more wrong, the openness is not necessarily linked to the economic outlook, and four, they emphasize the independence of a central bank and the issue of the international reserve currency.　　This concludes that the United States has a reserve currency issue right, I can borrow money, so I am AAA, forever AAA, we as a creditor, America's largest creditor, we have money, he has no money, we have the level of money is lower than the level of no money, it is absurd. To the big public international's this challenge, the domestic similar organization chooses the collective silence, the response is very few. This is not surprising, in our country, there are 5 authoritative credit rating agencies. Most Chinese rating agencies choose to develop their business in the form of a "marriage" with an international rating agency. And the development of the nationalization of the international choice of the grand public has made him a struggling lone challenger. Challenger's identity poses a series of problems for the grand public.　　Last year, the United States Government had included the application for a refusal procedure for large public international access to the US market. Guan: We are in full compliance with the standards and procedures set by the U.S. government to do the preparatory work, which meet their needs, at the end of the sudden point that they want to come to China to regulate the public, that is, cross-border regulation. As we all know, this is not possible, it is tantamount to the issue of monitoring sovereignty.　　It means finding an inappropriate reason to reject you, but this will not prevent us from advancing into the international market. Even if the difficulties, Guan said, the Grand International will adhere to its independence, the future will certainly introduce strategic investors, but the new investors must be local, can not affect the independence and impartiality of the agency.