National debt large area stream local debt for the first delay to avoid

In Wednesday only Treasury bonds had a large area of stream bond market shocks, in last week's continued panic selling atmosphere, the institutional holding will greatly weakened, has led to three of national debt stream.　　July 10, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to be scheduled on 13th of the 2009 Jilin Provincial government Bonds (two), the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region (two), Heilongjiang provincial governments bonds (two) and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region government bonds (two) of the agency issued a tender work postponed.　　It is the first time the issue has been postponed since the start of the 200 billion-dollar local debt issue in March this year. Citic Securities analyst pointed out that this was mainly caused by last week's turmoil in the bond market, 3 of the stream, the atmosphere of this week's wait-and-see has not ended, if the continuation of the issue, it is likely to lead to the same stream outcome.　　In addition, the rising rate of return on the bond curve, but also challenged the local government on the debt rate of the bottom line. Embarrassing local debt statistics show that by the end of June, 30 provinces and 3 cities in Qingdao, Dalian and Xiamen have been invited to issue 37 local government bonds, and the cumulative amount of issuance reached 165.9 billion yuan, accounting for 200 billion yuan of local bond issue size 83%.　　Among them, 19 provinces and Qingdao, Dalian, Xiamen 3 cities to complete the issue of local government bonds, there are 11 provinces and Ningbo, Shenzhen 2 cities total of 34.1 billion yuan in the distribution of agents, is expected to be completed in July.　　Since the beginning of July, there have been Ningbo, Shenzhen, Xinjiang (two), Shandong (two), Liaoning (two) packaged on July 6 to complete the tender, the total issue of 11.9 billion yuan.　　At this point, local debt as of July 13 has completed the issue of 177.8 billion yuan.　　The proposed issue of the 39th issue of local debt, the planned distribution of 11.2 billion yuan, all the issued provinces, autonomous regions, two issue.　　If issued on schedule, with reference to the current 2-level market yield of the same term bond, the estimated annual yield will reach around 2%. The yield has surged about 40 BP compared with the initial issuance of local bond yields.　　In fact, since the birth of local debt, it has been confronted with the challenge of rising yields. At the beginning of April, the Anhui debt (first issue) had set a minimum interest rate for local debt at a rate of 1.6% per year. Since then, the rate of local debt issuance began to gradually upward. By mid-April, the opposite rate of return on local debt to the entire bond market has become a top pressure to change its way of distribution.　　At that time, 09 Liaoning bonds, 09 Tianjin bonds, 09 Shandong bonds and 09 Jiangsu bonds were issued, and the bid rate rose from 1.75% of Liaoning's debt to 1.82% of Jiangsu's debt, and the yield rose 7bp within a week.　　Eastern Securities related analysts believe that a single local debt plate is very small, the basic purchase can only be held for a long time, many in the two-tier market is 0 transactions, so the higher the rate of return is basically to make up for liquidity risk. In this case, at the end of April the Ministry of Finance revised the distribution rules to improve the flowTo be packaged and released instead. But the change in the way it was issued did not get immediate results.　　April 27, the first package issued in Jilin Province, Qingdao City, Qinghai province, Hubei province a total of 12 billion yuan of local debt, the bid rate still fell to 1.82% of the high, higher than the same period of Treasury bond yield. Local debt yields fell to 1.79% per cent in the 38th issue of local debt, which was packaged last week.　　And if the issue continues, Eastern securities insiders point out that the rise in interest rates of 40bp is not surprising.　　This could be the last straw to force a local debt moratorium. "Local debt is different from national debt and local debt is a concern for costs," said Citic Securities analyst. In the case of market instability, if 13th continue to issue, on the one hand worry about the yield control, on the other hand, also worried about stream.　　At present, the stream is unbearable to the local debt. Bond market Collective wait-and-see in fact, this delay issue is helpless.　　In a bond market that has been under pressure since last week, there is a strong appetite for institutional ownership in the face of rising yields.　　With the combination of the IPO and other factors, the interbank market capital price continues to rise, the central bank open market operation of the short-term rate of return also began to bullish, and transmission to the bond market. Since the beginning of July, the yields of various maturities have appeared in different degrees of upward.　　Yields on 1-year bonds have risen from 0.981% in the beginning of the month to 1.35%; 3-year bonds rose from 1.8052% to 2.1958%; 5-year bonds rose from 2.4853% to 2.6876%. The first-year central bank vote, which was unexpectedly restarted last week, also gave the bond market an expected differentiation. Many are concerned that the central bank's monetary policy is likely to enter a structural adjustment period, and the future rate of return will continue to rise, thereby reducing the holding of medium and short term bonds. Funds and insurance became the main selling force.　　Only on July 6, the fund threw $5.1 billion in the market, while insurance was thrown at $5.4 billion.　　Last week, the 28 billion-dollar one-year national debt, 15 billion-dollar 3-month national debt and 20 billion-yuan 9-month national debt, all suffered stream fate. "There is a lot of pressure to sell, basically in 2-3 years, and even long debt is starting to sell," he said.　　"The Sell-off continued until Monday," said the Oriental securities source. This week, the bond market was again under pressure, the Chinese construction IPO started, to finance 42.6 billion yuan.　　In view of the previous issue of the three-gold IPO financing only 900 million yuan, but received 500 billion yuan online subscription, many analysts predict the amount of capital lock may be 2 trillion-3 trillion yuan. Such a huge amount of money will continue to lead the interbank market capital price rise.　　On July 13, interbank lending rates in the interbank market Rose 3-4 BP, continuing to grow over the coming weeks.　　The central bank may reduce its exposure to open markets in the light of the capital pressures on IPOs, according to the Bank of China, which is due to 240 billion yuan of open market funding this week. And with this, many analysts focused on the Thursday issue of the first-year central vote. "The direction of this price will directly give market signals, but also to the short end of the bond market yield to lead." Now we dare not buy a lot, that is, do not understand the trend of debt, are waiting for the one-year central vote signal.　　Citic Securities analysts said.　　The one-year central vote has become the focus of attention, intended to adjust the monetary policy behind the intention. CITIC Bank bond stakeholders believe that under the current market, the extension of local debt issuance, may only wait for a higher issue price.