New Deal or lead to sell house price upward unchanged

Business Tax levy free time to return to 5 years in Shanghai second-hand housing turnover short-term internal material decline held yesterday, the State Council executive meeting made it clear that the individual home transfer business tax levy free of time from 2 years to 5 years (see Today Morning Post A4 version). The policy means that the current business tax preferential policy expires at the end of next year, cancellation.　　However, now want to catch the end of the year before the "last bus" to sell the house is too late. Investors or will concentrate on selling December 29, 2008, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of taxation jointly issued the "Personal housing transfer business Tax policy Notice", clarified the individual housing transfer business tax preferential policy implementation details. The notice stipulates that from January 1, 2009 to December 31, individuals will purchase less than 2 years of non-ordinary housing sales, the full levy of business tax, individuals will purchase more than 2 years (including 2 years) of ordinary housing or less than 2 years of ordinary housing sales,　　Levy a business tax in accordance with its sales income minus the difference after the purchase price of the house; Individuals will purchase more than 2 years (including 2 years) of ordinary housing sales, exempt from business tax. Before this preferential policy, the business tax levy is 5 years.　　The business tax rate is 5.5% of the total housing price.　　Due to the current close to the end of the year, analysts said, in addition to the current transaction of the listing to run the transfer procedures, now want to sell timely, catch the last bus has no possibility. Chenyu, deputy general manager of Shanghai Zhongyuan, said the policy was mainly designed to prevent buyers from short-term speculation, less impact on their own needs. After the announcement, short-term or will cause the buyer to wait and see; sellers, some 2 years under 5 years of landlord or will not be in a hurry to sell, the listing volume than November or a decline. The current policy to catch the last bus is almost impossible (unless it is a one-time payment), so many more than 5 years of buyers may be waiting for the sale of housing.　　　　On the other hand, do not rule out the emergence of less than 2 years of concentrated selling phenomenon of the possibility of such a landlord or some of the early investors, due to the changes in policy, the choice will be part of the tax pass on to the following, timely sale. Liquidity is abundant, housing prices difficult to fall in the fourth quarter, in the bailout policy expires, the market repeatedly staged price Zisheng situation. According to the Central Plains real estate monitoring data show that Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other second-hand housing turnover, transaction prices have hit a record high. In Shanghai, for example, November, the city's second-hand housing turnover of 32432 sets, the chain October increased by 41.57%, the deal area of 2.895 million square meters, the chain rebounded significantly 49.46%.　　The total transaction amount reached 41.52 billion yuan, the chain rose by 54.98%. The preferential policy was canceled, analysts said, to a certain extent, will affect the second-hand market turnover decline, but whether it will be conductive to housing prices, but also to see whether the current inflationary expectations will be reversed.　　If inflation expectations remain, policies are likely to be digested in the short term. Chenyu said, overall, the future housing prices remain in the rising channel, so the policyChanges will not affect the trend of prices.　　Customer wait-and-see will result in a brief decline in turnover, but due to the policy changes in the face of small, the current proportion of ordinary housing is also relatively reduced, so whether the amount of fall will cause price falls, but also to be expected to future feedback. The chief economist for CICC said that market liquidity would remain plentiful in 2010. As the project and projects involved in the country's 4 trillion investment require continued investment in late-stage funds, the new loan is expected to be about 70,000 to 8 trillion yuan next year. In addition, about $3 trillion trillion in loans issued this year is "borrowed" and is reflected in derivative deposits, which will also guarantee market liquidity next year. With the backdrop of ample liquidity, asset-backed assets can still attract large sums of money, and real estate is expected to sustain growth in other sectors where margins have not yet risen significantly.