New financial survey shows continued slowdown in export growth in September

16 economists forecast the average for exports of 25%, the trade surplus or still high "Caixin net" (reporter Yu Hailong) by foreign demand slowdown, domestic policy adjustment and other factors, September China's export growth rate will continue to slow down. The general administration of customs will announce September China Import and export data from October 13 (Wednesday). In early October, the Caixin media sent questionnaires to a number of financial institutions ' research departments, and the 16 economists who responded to the questionnaire agreed that export growth in September was below 34.4% in August, but they had a big difference in the speed of the slowdown.　　The predicted mean value is 25%, where the maximum value is 28.6%, the lowest value is 18.6%, and the difference is 10%. Wang Tao, China's chief economist at UBS Securities, said external demand for China's exports would continue to fall as economic growth in Europe and the US slowed.　　She expects export growth to slow to 28% in September. Gaohua, a Chinese economist at Goldman Sachs, Songyusheng that the new export Order index in the Purchasing managers ' survey shows that export orders have not deteriorated significantly in recent months.　　However, in view of the early concentration of some export activities prior to the cancellation of the export rebate policy for many commodities in mid-July, it is expected that exports in September will weaken to a certain extent, from 34.4% in August to 28% per cent.　　Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities Greater China, said that in view of the higher base factor for the same period in 2009, export growth was expected to decline significantly in September, or up to 25% per cent year-on-year. In contrast, Huatai securities is more pessimistic.　　Its report says export growth has fallen sharply, on the one hand, slowing foreign demand and a change in the renminbi's exchange rate and foreign trade policy, which is expected to grow by 18.6% per cent in September.　　In terms of imports, 16 economists agree that import growth has slowed markedly, with a forecast average of 22.5%, down 12.7% from August's 35.2%, of which the highest value is 28%, with a minimum value of 15%.　　Huatai Securities is expected to increase imports in September year-on-year growth of 21.3%, the chain up about 4.5%, which does not exclude the initiative to increase import factors. Songyusheng that September imports year-on-year growth will fall to 29%, implied by the quarter after the month-by-year growth rate fell to 10.2%.　　In view of the August import chain growth is very high, the September chain growth has been very strong, reflecting the import growth by the strengthening of domestic demand. Most economists believe that exports will grow faster than imports in September, and the trade surplus will remain at a higher level. 16 economists predicted a mean of $18.6 billion, a maximum of $22 billion and a minimum of $12.5 billion.