New session of the new financial union summit and financial geeks ceremony

Netease Technology News June 29 news, today at the new session of the new financial Union summit and financial geek ceremony, Shi Yuzhu delivered a speech, he believes that the banking industry will not be hit by a short period of Internet finance for the following reasons:

One reason: the banking industry is too large, the total share of banks in the financial industry, in addition to banks, others together, are still a small part of the bank. The bank is too big It is impossible for such a huge banking industry to disappear in 3-5 years or even 10 years. If so, the Chinese economy will soon have collapsed.

Second reason: After interest rate liberalization, will the interest rate differential in the banking industry be as small as that in Taiwan and Japan? I think it is impossible. First of all, Chinese people have a saving culture. The Chinese entrepreneur has a hundred million cultures and wants to fight for five A hundred million, entrepreneurs like to use bank loans. All other businesses are hungry for money, as long as these entrepreneurs do not withdraw from the stage of history, the future or entrepreneurs seeking banks. As long as entrepreneurs go bank to bank, spreads can not be small. After interest rate liberalization, the spread may not be reduced

Three reasons: the impact of the Internet on the bank will not let the bank collapse, the bank is operating credit, the most unlucky three hundred and sixty line is the Internet, the Internet is full of fraud, the Internet to be financial, only local, In some fields, the Internet can only impact a few, the rest can not be hit. Can account for 20% of the bank, which is 30 trillion is very huge.

Four reasons: the dividend policy. The only one industry still retains food stamps, only the banking sector. Banking is a regulatory industry. The supervision of the CBRC is as follows: 20% deposit deposit and 70% deposit and loan ratio. The bonus of reform can make.

The following is the full text of the speech:

Theme: New Financial Alliance Summit and Financial Geek Festival

Time: 2014.06.29

Shi Yuzhu: Today are financiers, bankers, I am a layman, I said wrong, we understand. During this period, the banking sector faced the marketization of interest rates and the internet impact. What kind of result would be discussed and discussed more? Many people's point of view is that the banking industry will be in trouble even dinosaurs will disappear.

I have a different point of view. I think the entire banking industry will not be fundamentally affected in the future for a long period of time. The marketization of interest rates will force bank restructuring, forcing banks to change their businesses. The internet will allow banks to develop its financial internet, using the internet as a means of changing its business.

However, I think the banking industry will not suffer the worst in the future. There are four reasons as follows.

First, due to the special historical reasons of the banking industry, our national conditions determine that our banking sector is too big. In all the countries of the world, the proportion of banks in the entire financial industry is limited. However, the total size of our assets in China is only slightly smaller than the bank. All financial institutions have branches all over the country, and all other financial Institutions, excluding securities, insurance, trusts, etc., add up to less than one-tenth of the bank's outlets and its size is too large. For example, selling insurance, dividend insurance, 90% of the dividend insurance is sold in the bank, and why? Because China's financial sector has hundreds of millions of consumers around China's institutions only banks. Because it is too large, so you want such a huge banking sector to suddenly disappear within three years and five years and within ten years in a short period of time. Suddenly the entire industry is in trouble. Impossible. If it is true, I think China The economy has already collapsed.

Therefore, the banking industry is historic in China. It can not be because the proportion of the banking industry in foreign countries such as the United States accounts for the financial industry is not so large. China can not be reasoned simply based on certain circumstances abroad because China is historically formed. This is the first reason.

The second reason is that with the marketization of interest rates, will the banking industry have the same interest rate difference as Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan will not let the banks fall into full scale? I think it is impossible. First of all, Chinese people have a culture of saving money for thousands of years. From the export side of money, the culture of Chinese entrepreneurs, one billion he must want to do five million live, one billion he wants to invest one billion, especially our generation of entrepreneurs, this is a culture.

Anyway, I have come into contact with, in addition to two types of entrepreneurs are not willing to use bank loans, one is a new Internet company, the rise of the Internet, why it does not like this? Because these companies are listed in the United States, U.S. companies use very few bank loans. Like our giant network is listed in the United States, almost zero bank loans, accounts have a lot of cash reserves, almost every Internet business is so. This is the entrepreneurial culture of the internet business.

The second is to come back to power in the educated Second Generation in the West. The group will be better off. All other businesses are hungry for money.

As long as these groups of entrepreneurs do not withdraw from the stage of history, they will still have insufficient funds for entrepreneurs in the coming decade or even longer.

Why Japan spreads it? Because his loan interest is only 1%, big deal, why? Because the business does not need a loan, its entrepreneur has no desire to lend. However, as the developing countries, the BRIC countries, especially China, are obviously, there is a strong desire for entrepreneurial expansion. It is not something Western countries have to make one dollar for one thing. We have one dollar for ten dollars. This culture does not change. In the next 10 years, 15 years and 20 years, funds will become increasingly scarce. As long as there is a shortage of funds, as long as entrepreneurs go door-to-door, the spread will not be too small. So what happens after the market-based interest rate? I do not think the spread will be smaller. This is my second reason.

The third reason, just Chairman Wu, Chairman Dong Wenbiao talked about, the impact of the Internet on the bank will not let them collapse? My conclusion is consistent with them, it will not. What is the bank doing? Bank is operating credit, not a simple money management, it is to play credit. Which industry is the industry that does not trust the most in 360? Internet, Internet, you do not know each other is male or female, you chat with a girl, maybe he is a personal demon, because the Internet is full of fraud, because this is full of fraud to decide the Internet to be financial, only He can not do it in a specific area.

For example, I take the yuan for the dollar, the Internet can change it? Can not change, can only go to the bank's counter to change, because the bank counter to you is not a fake banknotes, for the real change on the Internet will be cheated, maybe copy a piece of paper with a copier to give you. Therefore, the bank has dozens of banking services, the Internet can only impact a few of them, the remaining dozens of items can not be hit, this is the characteristics of the Internet.

Of course, I am not saying that Internet finance will not be greatly developed and Internet finance will have a great development. As the rise of Yuet Po has proved this point, there will be more rise. However, it can not replace the bank and it can account for the future 20% of the bank, I think it has been great, 20% of the 30 trillion. 30 trillion is also very large, but you want to replace the bank, I think impossible.

The last reason, there will be policy dividends, reform dividends. Since China eliminated the food stamps and after it entered the market economy from the planned economy, we have only one industry. We still have the food stamps. That is banking. Every year, the banking industry issues food stamps. How many loans can you have this year and how many loans you will have next year? Banking is still over-regulated, like controlling the size of a bank, how much money you absorb, and how much credit I allow you to put in. By the way, an indicator card is fine, but now there are also three indicators in the card , The card is the same content, there is no difference.

The first one is deposit deposit, 20%, which is universal all over the world, people are 8%, 12%, we are 20%, higher a little higher, but also ok. Second, the deposit-loan ratio, 75%, you absorb 100 dollars in deposits, only allow you to loan 75, so put the deposit reserve to waste, this management is useless. You can not absorb 100 yuan loan I borrow 80, no, only 75. Thirdly, the People's Bank added another one. I will give you a grain ticket, a worker, an agricultural person, an intermediate person and a Chinese person. How much should I give you? How much will you give to the rest of you? That is, local commercial banks give him 30% of the food stamp every year. He has received 100 yuan of deposit and only allows him to borrow 30 yuan. In this case, he is forced to prostitute himself. So, money management, dishonest things are out, I think this is forced out.

With the liberalization of interest rates, since interest rates are marketized, I believe our country and our leaders will certainly do so. Since the banking industry has entered a market economy, the management of my planned economy should also be liberalized, at least for the most part. Because it is impossible to use the planned economy management again, let the banking industry enter the market economy. Therefore, when it is released, there will be a lot of dividends for reform. According to what he has let go, some banks can seize the opportunity and catch up with the contents of his release.

I think there are many reasons why Bank of China now has high interest rates, so many money, and so high interest rates. One of the important reasons for this is oversubscribed. For example, there are hundreds of bank regulations that promise not allowed, that is not allowed, such as the bank's funds can not enter the stock market, loans for backward production capacity and so on, it seems every one is good, but not every one is good, such as That there is no reason to suppress the stock market, there are many provisions, these provisions on the surface is good.

Let me give an example, such as backward production capacity, in 2008 when the China Banking Regulatory Commission to support everyone in these businesses, unconditional loans to these enterprises. A steel miner borrowed 20 billion at a time when it lent 20 billion yuan in response to the call of the state. Suddenly, he said he would not lend it. What should he do if his stock loan was placed there? Take the crooked path, he used to accept only 6.5% interest on the loan, because you so stipulate, he accepted 15%. A steel, a ship, entrepreneurs to accept psychological interest rates increased, he wants 12%, 15%, 50 areas have raised their psychological price, the bank also followed the interest down .

Therefore, I think it is overextended supervision of China's interest into such a vicious circle, the money made so much, interest rates so high.

thank you all!