New technology Hype Cycle chart: Big Data Peak slide, artificial intelligence, neural technology rise

Comparing this year and last year, the concepts of IoT, self-driving cars, consumer-grade 3D printing, and natural language quiz are at the top of the hype. And big data has slipped from the top, NFC and cloud computing near the bottom.

Technology is always changing, renowned IT consulting organization Gartner recently updated the annual "Emerging Technology Hype Cycle map", and the Imperial College of Technology "forward-looking" group also launched the "New Science and Technology timeline", all kinds of emerging technologies have done classification and technology maturity of the judgment.

Gartner's "Emerging technology hype" cycle is a classification of technologies based on technical maturity and expectations. On the horizontal axis is divided into "the Innovation Bud Innovation Trigger", "The expectation peak peak ofinflated expectation", "the downward forecast to the low point trough of disillusion", "returns the ideal slope Ofenlightenment "," productivity platform plateau of productivity ".

More to the left, the technology is about trendy, the more in the conceptual phase, the more right, the technology about mature, about the commercialization of applications, to play a higher productivity effect. The longitudinal axis represents the expected value, people for the new technology usually with the understanding of in-depth, expected to continue to heat up, with the media hype and to reach the peak; As a result of technical bottlenecks or other reasons, it is expected to gradually cool to a low point, but when the technology matures, expectations are rising again.

The comparison between this year and last year shows that the concepts of IoT, self-driving cars, consumer-grade 3D printing, and natural language quiz are at the top of the hype. And big data has slipped from the top, NFC and cloud computing near the bottom.

Last year's "mobile Robot" renamed as "Intelligent Robot", last year, "virtual assistant fictitious Assistant" renamed "Virtual personal assistant virtualpersonal assistants", because the latter range is greater.

This year's new technology includes data science, "software-definedanything", "Smart Advisors", "Connected Home Smart House", "Digitalsecurity network security , "Smart Workplace", "virtual currency cryptocurrencies" and "Hybrid Cloud Hybrid Cloud".

In conclusion, we find that artificial intelligence has been interpreted into many technical applications (autonomous Vehicle, Virtual personalassistants,brain-computer interface,humanaugmentation, Prescriptive analysis, Smart Workplace, smart robot, etc.) and will have a great disruptive effect in 5-10 years.

The "New Science and Technology Timeline", launched by the "technology foresight Tech Foresight" panel at Imperial College London, is a target ring for emerging technologies by category and maturity. The inner and outer rings of the ring represent three time temperatures: the inner circle is "present", that is, the 2014-2015; the Middle circle is "very likely", which is possible in 2015-2030, and the outer ring is "probable", which is possible after 2030. Technology is divided into 5 categories: information technology, biotechnology, nanotechnology, neural technology and clean technology.

The techniques shown in the figure are listed below (the Chinese translation is not guaranteed to be correct):

Biotechnology-present:

Genetic testing of congenital diseases, gene therapy, synthetic organic compounds, DNA based dating/marriage introductions, invading the body to enhance the senses, orthopedic implants produced with 3D printing technology, commercial pet cloning, crop-derived plastics, gene-based active medicine interventions, nurturing human-derived animals for pharmaceuticals

Biotechnology-most likely:

Prophylactic antibiotics are prohibited for use in animals, personalized microbial therapies, ubiquitous bio-sensors, non-animal-derived leather, over-the-counter gene testing, stem cell therapy for Parkinson's syndrome, 3D-printed bio-Nano scaffolds, bioluminescence home lighting, embedded RFID technology for personal data storage, Found the last antibiotic, human organ cloning,

Biotechnology-Possible:

Introduction of genetically modified mosquitoes to eliminate malaria, legalization of human genetic engineering, tattoo circuits (video tattoos on the human body), cloning of human beings, epidemics caused by synthetic organic compounds, manufacture of artificial muscles with nano-fibers, DNA-based data storage, microbial-induced food packaging

Neural Technology-present:

Cochlear implants, brain prints, used in courts, for medical purposes, for use in medicine or leisure, for thought-controlled prostheses, for neural imaging of active brain regions

Neural technology-most likely:

The mind-controlled wheelchair, the mobile phone to the eye movement tracking, the decoding intention algorithm, the adaptive Electronic Assistant avoids information overload, the artificial retina implantation, does not have the hangover alcohol substitute

Neural Technology-Possible:

Invasive implantable neural devices, brain-computer interfaces are widely used and replace keyboards, air travellers use brain fingerprints, and fMRI to dream imaging and recording, communication equipment widely embedded in the human body, the basic idea of the artificial neural writing, the use of brain prosthesis to promote or eliminate memory, the end of dementia

Information Technology-Now:

More mobile phones than population, living records, encrypted currency, smart toothbrushes, augmented reality glasses, crime prevention algorithms, NFC nails, scanned barcode tombstones, a central camera for facial recognition, avatar girlfriend, brain for games-computer basic interface, trans-continent robotic surgery

Information technology-most likely:

Real-time language translation, quantum computers are used to decrypt, analyze underwear, AI for general practitioner surgery, no assisted robotic surgery, more than 50 billion devices on the internet, lip-readable central cameras, cyber attacks that cause power outages across the city, wireless communication without batteries, automatic taxi fleets, physical credit card obsolescence, Tactile learning clothing, emotional sensors, insect size detection robot, holographic data storage, AI for UAV-UAV combat, intelligent dust sensor

Information Technology-Possible:

Invading already implanted neural devices, the city bans human pilots, predicts war algorithms, commercial airplanes hijacked by smartphones, war and game mergers, robots outnumber humans, more than 1 trillion devices, lifelong avatar assistants, records of human life from birth to death, fully autonomous battlefield robots, Quantum Computers for material design

Clean Technology-Now:

Low-cost solar collectors, insulating aerogel buildings, vibration Energy collection, community power grids, energy-responsive home appliances, led streetlights, power grid-level energy storage, household power plants (hot and cold power supply system), smart meters, algae biomass fuels, 100% obsolete incandescent lamps

Cleaning technology-most likely:

Super Capacitor car, consumer-side real-time pricing, artificial photosynthesis of hydrogen, synthetic aircraft fuel, ambient RF energy collection, beam energy for ecological monitoring and military drones, large-scale carbon capture and carbon storage, transparent (organic) solar cells on skyscrapers, biodegradable batteries, dedicated lanes for self-driving cars, Inductive charging and supermarket selling synthetic meat in electric vehicle

Cleaning technology-Possible:

Travelling wave reactors, fuel cell-powered light airliners, unmanned aerial vehicles deliver pizza, commercial ocean heat transfer, mini wind energy hydro-power collection building exterior wall, automobile wave rotor engine, thorium reactor, iron fertilizer for the ocean, 3D printing soil for vertical agriculture, high speed sidewalk, insect burger food vehicle, Super loop mass transportation system , using Tokamak fusion power generation, satellite beam space solar energy

Nanotechnology-Now:

Antiviral nanoparticles for clothing, nano-particles in cosmetics and sunscreen, plastic printed electronic circuits, quantum dots television, cancer imaging and therapeutic nanoparticles, scaffolds for the development of human stem cells, templates for protein crystallization, self-healing paint points and surfaces, nanotubes for synthetic neurons and synthetic neural implants, Methanol fuel cell in consumer electronic products

Nanotechnology-most likely:

Artificial electromagnetic material antennas, laminated screens and equipment

Nanotechnology-Possible:

IBM uses animated atoms to make cartoons, full-moon transistor, the next generation of lightweight composite materials, each bit of data has 100 atomic density, graphite super capacitor, the ecosystem monolayer self-duplication, quantum dot night windows, room temperature superconductors, optical light to make the calculation near the speed of light, laboratory demonstration of artificial electromagnetic materials stealth, autonomous data-intensive.

Source: Observe every day

From: Science and technology

(Responsible editor: Mengyishan)