News Analysis: Import and export monthly indicators for the first time to positive behind

Xinhua Beijing, December 11, Xinhua News Analysis: Import and export monthly indicators of the first positive after the official Xinhua news agency reporters Feng, Remin, tetrarch General Administration of customs 11th released data shows that, since October import value for the first time in the year to achieve the monthly growth, November China's total value of imports and exports in the year of　　The emergence of this "inflection point" deserves people's attention.　　The foreign trade situation is continuing to turn good customs statistics show that November China's total exports of foreign trade growth of 9.8%, of which exports fell 1.2% year-on-year, the chain growth of 2.6%, import year-on-year growth of 26.7%, the chain growth of 9%. "The total value of imports and exports from negative to positive is expected, the root cause is the external needs of the improvement." And since last year, the country issued a series of stable external demand, promote export policy has also received good results.　　Zhang, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Foreign Economic Institute. A series of recent data shows that the economies of developed and emerging economies are recovering.　　The U.S. economy reappeared in the third quarter of a "long-lost" growth and financial markets have weathered a severe crisis, while the Japanese and European economies have continued to improve, and some emerging economies in Asia and South America have grown faster. There are indications that international market demand is stabilizing at a low level. Canton Fair This autumn also confirmed the external demand for warmer trends, the number of businessmen to export transactions than the previous increase of 14% and 16%.　　Affected by the lower base of the same period last year, the possibility of a monthly export positive for the year is still large.　　External demand weakness short-term difficult to reverse although import value, import and export values of the monthly index to achieve the year by negative positive, but foreign trade may also face double-digit decline in the year, as the lowest level since the reform and opening-up. "Due to the early decline, the annual export decline will be 15% to 17%, the surplus will be reduced by about 90 billion dollars."　　Zhang estimates. "At present, the global recovery is not enough, the unemployment rate in major economies is high, and financial institutions have weakened their ability to finance the real economy." The future of global demand downturn will be difficult to change in the short term, China's foreign trade is still slow to rebound, but the road to recovery is full of thorns.　　"said Li Jian, a researcher at the Institute of International Trade and economic cooperation. "Even more worrisome is the growing international trade protectionism in the context of the global economic downturn, and China has become the biggest victim," he said.　　Zhang points out that external demand will still be in the doldrums within 2 years or so, and the competition for a large shrinking cake will be fiercer. The Ministry of Commerce data shows that as of November 3,This year, 19 countries (regions) have launched 101 Trade relief surveys on China's products, with a total of more than 11.68 billion U.S. dollars involved. Moreover, trade relief measures are becoming more diversified, with countervailing and "special insurance" becoming the focus.　　The United States alone launched 10 "double counter" investigations. A steady rebound in exports the International Monetary Fund reported in early October that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2010, with the European economy bottoming out in 2009 and a modest recovery starting in 2010.　　The global economy will shrink by 1.1% in 2009 and 3.1% in 2010. "As the external situation gradually improved, China's exports in 2010 overall good, will return to moderate growth zone." Affected by the base factor, the increase will appear before the high and low trend.　　"Looking to the foreign trade situation next year, Liu Nenghua judge said."　　Long, Minister of Foreign Economic Affairs of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that it was not a suspense to achieve positive export growth next year, and was expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. However, it is widely believed that, although the global economy is gradually recovering, it is difficult to return to pre-crisis growth levels in the short term. Therefore, in 2010, China's exports also difficult to return to the pre-crisis increase of more than 20%.　　While continuing to focus on expanding domestic demand, efforts to promote a steady rebound in exports. "The current state support for foreign Trade development policy measures should not be changed, but must change the past rely on low-cost, quantitative expansion of the development strategy, pay attention to the quality and efficiency of development."　　Zhang Qizzo, vice president of the China International Economic Research Association. Zhang also suggested that the future policy focus should be on speeding up the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade growth mode, especially through policy innovation, accelerate the establishment of SME credit system, guarantee system, trade financing system and credit system, improve the environment of SME entrepreneurship development.