Next year CPI may hold high inflation red line could be raised to 4%

Nanfang Daily Beijing reporter Lu Tianling trainee reporter Sun Yun Jia 2011 Central Economic Work Conference will be held in December 5-7th.　　In the context of rising prices and inflationary pressures, the next year's macro-policy setting has become the focus of the market's attention. Yesterday, there was news that the Central Economic Work conference was brewing to raise the 2011 inflation target to 4%.　　In macro-policy, it is also possible to stop emphasizing the "continuity and stability of the policy". Inflation tolerance has risen to 4%-5%, said Professor Song Guoqing, of the Peking University National Development Institute, who is known as "the first person in macroeconomic forecasting", in an interview with the Southern daily newspaper yesterday, "This data (inflation target to 4%) is now only preliminary. Because a lot of industry academics predict that it will reach about 5% by the beginning of next year, and at the end of 3%, the median, or 4%, should be taken when setting the annual target. "This is not a very high inflation level, our average inflation rate has been 5.8% since the reform and opening-up," Chief macro analyst Li Huiyong said in a media interview in Tuesday that, based on the current and the next stage of the price situation, the central government may be on the basis of 2010 3%, the appropriate increase in the CPI target,　　It is expected to increase to about 4%.　　4% of the target is not special, the 2009 CPI control Target is 4%, 2008 is 4.8%.　　According to the practice, the Central Economic Work Conference will only tentatively propose next year's economic growth and price control targets, the specific economic indicators to be formally given in the second "two sessions". "2011-year CPI control targets, the basic determination needs to carry on some raise, this depends on two factors, one is by the end of this year what will be the two months of performance, or to the March" NPC "held when the CPI will go to what level; second, the control target needs to be raised to what level.　　According to the source said. The CPI data for October was 4.4%, far exceeding market expectations. From the composition look, the tail factor is 1.3%, the new price factor is 3.1%. "It is estimated that the CPI will fall in November and December, but the CPI will be above 5% in most months of the first half of next year." Liu Yuhui, director of the China Economic Evaluation Center at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said yesterday in an interview with the Southern daily newspaper, "That's why there's been a growing voice in the macro sector, and China's inflation tolerance needs to rise to 4.5% to 5%." "The reporter learned that recently, a number of institutions will be China's next year's CPI forecast again higher."　　UBS's latest report raised CPI forecasts from 3.5% to 4% to 4% to 4.5%.　　Stephen Green, director of economic research at Standard Chartered Bank in Greater China, yesterday raised the forecast for China's CPI in 2011 from 4% to 5.5%, according to the report. Monetary policy or no longer emphasizes "continuity, stability" the message also said that in order to better guide market expectations, the policy of "maintaining policy continuity, stability," the phrase may not be revisited, andAnd for the Central Economic Work Conference will be implemented in the "moderately loose monetary policy" to change the tone to "sound monetary policy" the goal has been basically reached consensus.　　As for whether monetary policy will turn steady or moderate, Li Huiyong said in an interview that "the central bank's wording is not the key, and that the monetary policy of the 2010 is essentially a sound monetary policy". In 2011, he said, the central bank would still maintain a sound monetary policy. A 1 to 2 increase will be required by the end of this year to the first half of next year.　　"The latest report of the National Information Center estimates that China's consumer price index rose 3.8% per cent year-on-year in the four quarter, creating a quarterly New Year; Wang Xiaoquan, a researcher at the National Administration College of the State Council's affiliated research institute, said yesterday that China's growth rate should fall from the current 9% to 10%, given the difficulties of economic restructuring under the current rapid economic growth situation.