Next year credit or put 78 trillion

Institutional judgment growth of not less than 25% in this year's large-scale credit pull, the national liquidity is obvious, widely believed that under the investment pulls "guarantees eight" is hopeful. Recently, some experts said that because many of the projects launched this year are long-term projects, these projects need to be supplemented by follow-up funds. and the policy direction of the two-year government plan to boost the economy through investment is unchanged.　　　　It is therefore judged that credit will continue to be slow in the next year, with new credit on a scale of 7 trillion to 8 trillion trillion yuan, and even a belief that the loan increase in the second two years would remain between 9 trillion and 10 trillion yuan. 10 trillion this year, the level of fixed investment has risen markedly since this year, driven by a national stimulus package. Statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission show that in January-September this year, 269,263 new projects started nationwide, up 78,580 from the same period last year, with a total investment of 11,216,985,000,000 yuan in the new project, which grew 83%.　　Total investment in fixed assets in the whole society was 15,505,710,000,000 yuan, up 33.4% from a year earlier. In contrast to the growth in fixed investment, credit levels are much higher than in previous years and the amount of sky is released. The first three quarters of the renminbi new credit to the total 8.67 trillion yuan, increased by 5.19 trillion yuan. The market also expects October new credit levels, to be announced next week, to continue at the rate of September, between 400 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan, or perhaps more than 500 billion yuan.　　　　The scale of the loan for the whole year, the market is generally estimated or exceed 10 trillion yuan.　　Next year, investment growth is still faster for next year's credit delivery, experts say, in the follow-up investment and supporting investment, next year, the scale of credit will be difficult to fall sharply. "The economy will grow more than 8% this year, and the overall environment for 2010 is better than this year, and investment remains relatively fast." "At the forum held by the Great Wall Albert, Yu Bin, Minister of Macroeconomic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said this, and he explained that many of the new projects started this year belonged to long term large-scale projects, construction and investment cycles. According to the 4 trillion-yuan economic stimulus package, the 2009 increase in public investment of 487.5 billion yuan, the first three quarters of the 280 billion yuan, there are still 207.5 billion yuan to be in the fourth quarter.　　Next year's increase in the public investment budget is 588.5 billion yuan, if implemented as planned, will play a significant multiplier effect. Citic Investment chief macroeconomic researcher Wei Fengchun that next year will not be less than 25% growth, if the growth can not be achieved, the Chinese economy "eight" economic growth targets will be difficult to achieve, so the country will mobilize all the forces can be mobilized to achieve this bottom line. This is bound to provide a support for the continued smooth credit supply next year. In addition to the new projects need follow-up funding, Wei Fengchun that next year's credit in the Year 7 trillion-8 trillion yuan. Guo, director of the Banking Research Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics, also believes that the future should remain a positive fiscal policy and a moderately widePine Policy continuity, and is expected to be the annual credit scale of 7 trillion-8 trillion yuan next year. Sun, chief economist for Nomura Securities China, said credit "slowdowns" should be taken with extra caution in today's high credit growth.　　　　At the same time, he predicted that the annual loan increase in 2010-2011 would remain at 9 trillion-10 trillion trillion yuan, and that it would be the culmination of fixed asset investment in the next two years, which would reach 506 billion and 642 billion yuan respectively. Inflationary pressures merit attention in the credit boom, Yu Bin that inflationary pressures deserve attention. He said deflation would continue until the end of the year, but prices bottomed out. "The future price will be a steady rebound, comprehensive consideration of the base and the new price factors, the CPI is expected to be positive in November this year, PPI will be regularized in the end, deflationary state will end." "Sun that raising interest rates is the most straightforward way to reduce the risk of inflation. Sun expects CPI to grow 2% this year, and the PBoC has to raise interest rates to prevent real deposit rates from falling to negative numbers. He expects the central bank to raise interest rates by 27 basis points next 3 April and will raise interest rates by 81 basis points throughout the year. He thinks the reserve requirement ratio will not increase in the next 18 months.