Nine big guesses of China Gem: Who will be suspended first

Business newspaper trainee reporter Yu Yuqing with yesterday Shenzhen to 28 enterprises issued the final "Zhongsheng", GEM official listing trading only time is left. Will there be a first-day break for the gem market after the official listing? How will institutions be involved? Whether it will become a watershed trend of the market ... All of this is still full of unknowns from now on.　　For the general concern of investors of these issues, this newspaper today launched the exclusive planning-China Gem Nine speculation, for readers reference.　　Guess 1 who will be suspended first? Business Report predicts: Many new shares at the same time the probability of a large suspension of business on 30th for the formal trading of the gem, the first day of stir-fry has almost been labeled as positive. Although the regulator has repeatedly stressed the need to prevent the first day of the FRY, but many old investors still believe that the gem will replicate 5 years ago listed on the debut of the SME board.　　The remaining question is, who in the 28 companies will be the first to touch the temporary suspension of the red line of stocks? From the "Red Line" set up by the Shenzhen stock market, 20% of the price threshold is obviously not high, even if the reference to the motherboard, the IPO first day basically all more than 20% of the increase, and its own gem stocks by the possibility of a big stir, its rise naturally also easier to break through 20%. At present, it is widely accepted that the first 28 companies on the gem will have an average gain of 61% to 79%.　　In order to judge, Gem 28 new shares in a number of stocks at the same time should be a big probability event. As the gem itself is small, its share price will be subject to relatively drastic fluctuations once it is hit by a huge amount of capital. And the first day of the formal trading business board, it is likely to attract a large number of investors "taste", a large number of funds will enter the long, gem stock prices are also easy in the pursuit of the funds of the decentralization of the rally. However, as 28 companies listed on the same day, the probability of hot money to fry 1 new shares almost zero.　　Therefore, we expect that there will be a temporary suspension of the Shenzhen on 30th, but the most likely is that more than one new share has been suspended.　　Guess 2 will be the first break? Business Report forecast: Not early in the Gem completed the first batch of 10 enterprises after the purchase, the market is generally recognized that gem stocks are "double high" symptoms, that is, high P/E and high price, some analysts believe that "double high" will cause investors "fear of high" sentiment, increase gem stock IPO break pressure , and 28 shares of the same hair and greatly dispersed the power of the new money, so that the possibility of a break.　　People began to speculate about the possibility that 28 companies would become the first "unlucky egg".　　However, there are indications that the first-day break may only be a hypothesis. On the surface, the average P/E of the Gem 28 shares is as high as 56.7 times times, compared to the two cities, the average price-earnings ratio of the motherboard and the board, but in fact, 28 enterprises are in recent years outstanding performance of enterprises, its profit growth and space far more than the average level of the two cities, so the gemThe very strong growth of the enterprise itself has also hedged the risk of high P/E ratio objectively.　　Since the calculation of the 28 companies ' P/E ratio is based on earnings per share in 2008, which is affected by the financial crisis, the macro-economy has gradually emerged from the crisis, and the performance of listed companies has generally rebounded, converting it into the first half of 2009, the majority of the 28 companies are actually only 30 times　　More convincing data is that, in the 18 A-share history, whether it is the motherboard or the SME board, the IPO has never had a break record, on the contrary, the first day of the IPO trading rose almost became "iron law."　　We believe that the total market value of 28 new shares is small, the ability to shunt the huge amount of fresh money is limited, and then consider the first day will have a temporary suspension of the factors, 28 shares of capital diversion power will be greatly reduced, but not enough to create a break in the IPO threat.　　Guess who gets the most money to see in the first day of 3?　　Business Report forecast: Huayi Brothers and Le Pu medical treatment when the probability of break is almost eliminated, 28 companies who will be the first day of the most outstanding, who is the most new money to see?　　This newspaper synthesizes each party's information to think, Huayi Brothers and Le Pu Medicine most has the star phase.　　Although in the purchase phase of the two companies online purchase rate is not the lowest, but Huayi brothers and Le Pu medical funds to freeze the purchase of money as high as 192.8 billion yuan and 152.9 billion yuan, listed "aspiration" of the top two.　　Although the above data can only indicate the purchase stage Huayi Brothers and Le Pu medical funds sought after, does not mean that the official listing is the same, but we believe that Huayi brothers and Le Pu medical early is the reason for the pursuit of funds, because the two companies in their industry deep foundation and development potential to the vast number of investors enough confidence to support. In fact, the Gem 28 enterprises have a higher growth, but after all, most enterprises are small, the foundation is not stable, the future development of more uncertainty, but le Pu medical and Huayi Brothers two enterprises are not only significantly larger than other enterprises (both registered capital of more than billion), and their respective industry status is also very prominent, Among them, le PU medical treatment in the field of high-end medical devices are few competitors, super strength, and the company itself has a good "national font size" background and resources, its "money" unlimited; Huayi Brothers is a prestigious cultural enterprises, the company's industry resources, a large number of star shareholders brought by the market sentiment is also very exuberant,　　The company's reputation is very high, its industry status is self-evident.　　Guess 4 listing on the first day of the market is up or down? Business Report forecast: "Small yin Star" according to General thinking, IPO first day, because "speculation" will be drawn from the stock market large sums of money, the resulting "draw blood" pressure on the stock index is likely to have a negative impact. The GEM debut trading 28 shares in the first day, such a large number of IPOs in the history of China's stock market is still the initial, many investors worried that the stock index can withstand the impact of 28 IPOs? We believe that the elimination of unpredictable positive or negative factors, gem listed trading headDay, the index is likely to be a small Yin Star reported. Although the power of 28 shares can not be ignored, the impact on the stock index is inevitable, but because gem stock market capitalisation is generally small, this impact is not too big. In fact, 28 new shares together is only the equivalent of 1 large stocks, the gem 28 shares the actual amount of 15.5 billion yuan, the data is lower than the earlier listed in China metallurgical 18.9 billion yuan, the latter on the first day of the Shanghai Composite Index reported small helion, Rose 0.15%,　　This is the first day of the gem opening of the stock index trend has a certain guiding significance. In addition, even if the first day 28 share turnover rate of 100% (higher than the recent average of SME turnover rate), the average increase of 100%, to the first day of 28 shares circulation market value to calculate, 28 shares total turnover of up to only 24 billion yuan, even if coupled with the outside of the "spectator" funds, It is also difficult to exceed the first batch of 10 companies to purchase 784.1 billion yuan frozen, and the batch of 10 companies on the day of the Shanghai Composite Index was also reported to the small Yang star. In general, the investor's new shares when the "hit" The passion is far higher than the new issue "speculation" of the passion, if "dozen new" did not have a serious impact on the stock index, then listed after the transaction investors "speculation" will not form a big impact.　　Therefore, we judge that 28 strands of hair will not be too big impact on the market, conservative estimates will be collected on the day of the small Yin Star. Need to explain that, after the first day, as a result of the gem purchase, trade and other major "suck gold" link has been all completed, the short term will not have a major IPO and refinancing pressure, the official opening of the board means that all the recent major negative all out, bad dispersion is good, therefore, we anticipate the first day, due to speculation of new capital reflux　　, the stock index will start to rebound, overall, the initial gem IPO on the stock index should be first and then Yang.　　Guess how the first day of 5 agencies to participate in the transaction? Business Report forecast: Look at the start of the small number of start-up board purchase by the agency funds of the Heat, even known as the "national team" of the Social Security Fund also enter the purchase, GEM officially listed after the agency will continue to maintain this long confidence and enthusiasm, become a lot of investors focus on Because the degree of participation of the first day of the organization will determine the first day of the increase in space. In this regard, we believe that the first day of the organization will probably change the enthusiasm of the purchase, see more lively, participate in the opera less. [Page] before that, although some people in the industry said that many institutions on the first day of the gem, but even the organization itself can not be judged as the basis for the first day of the organization, like in the gem, some institutions although on the surface of high price and price-earnings ratio for the first, on the pioneering board to sing empty,　　But in fact in the final network under the results of the application of the notice often appear in the shadow of these institutions, the institution of such a long practice in the capital market has become commonplace. Gem in the end how much risk, I believe that institutions than the retail mind more clearly, under the high risk, no one will be rushed out, not to mention now Gem alsois a new thing, the gem market is also full of too much uncertainty, in this case, a large number of institutional funds may choose to observe first, and then choose whether to intervene according to the actual situation. In addition, the SFC also made a clear appeal to the agency not to participate in the gem on the first day of trading, the SFC's hard work is nothing more than to convey to the institutions such a stable message: that is, do not expect to profit from the first day of the gem. Because once the share price touches the previously Shenzhen designated "Yellow Line", at any time, the Shenzhen stock Exchange may temporarily suspend its operation, which will effectively control the price of the first day of the IPO, but it is easy to be limited in the first day operations, so that the original advantage is greatly weakened,　　Organizations will not be admitted on the first day of the day.　　Guess 6 new-jin earnings ratio can return? Business Report forecast: Can gem high price/earnings ratio has always been the most market-challenged one of the technical indicators, the first batch of 10 companies in the Gem inquiry just came out, its high P/E market is staggering.　　In view of the high price/earnings ratio of the gem, we believe that after the first batch of companies to complete the listing, the subsequent issuance of the gem shares of the market is expected to gradually reduce. On the issue price,　　The first 28 companies had a 56.7 times-fold average P/E, the highest ding Han technology and Bao Tak shares are more than 80 times times, in the first day of trading, can be expected to increase the gem P/E ratio will be greatly increased, some shares may be more than 100 times times, and the current Shanghai and Shenzhen stock A shares of the average P/E is not more than 30 times times. At the same time, the stock price, gem stock price is also significantly higher than the motherboard and SME stock price, 60 yuan share price even in the motherboard is also "top."　　Although the stock price is not the main technical analysis target which the investor concerns, but too much stock prices will have a subtle impact on investor psychology, coupled with investor worries about the high price/earnings ratio of the gem, the reality of "double High" of P/E and IPO will undoubtedly impact the bottom line of investor's psychology, and eventually lead the gem to a low return. In addition, based on the 2009-year growth of gem companies expected profits, 2009-year performance will be used to calculate the price-earnings ratio of the standard, we expect 2009 after the gem stock price earnings ratio will be significantly reduced.　　However, due to the enterprise's own industry distribution "two new" characteristics, we predict that even if the gem P/E to the low return, but the average level will still be far higher than the motherboard and the average level of the board.　　Guess 7 gem will become a "cash machine"? Business Report Forecast: It is possible that the gem is a billionaire arsenal, it seems just overnight, with the opening of China's gem, the birth of 82 billion "billionaire", these rich are almost all the price of the overnight boom dozens of times times. With the Wang and general manager of the Shenzhou Lili as an example, after the listing, they are worth more than 1 billion yuan, and in accordance with the current profitability of the Shenzhou Tai Yue, and then refer to their holdings, 1 billion yuan to pay the value of their 40 years to work to achieve, thisIt is conceivable that the effect of creating wealth has a psychological impact on people. After the gem is formally traded, although the restricted shareholders are committed to a certain period of time does not sell the stock, but the commitment is a commitment, and there is no legal effect, the original shareholders after a rich night seems to complete a sudden change from the entrepreneur to the role of the successful, even if they adhere to the commitment, but the commitment period, They are not to be sold out of stocks. This is like a monthly income of only one thousand or two thousand dollars in the tens of thousands of millions of grand prizes, after the jackpot he still have the heart to stick to the original job?　　Choosing to resign may still be a big probability event.　　Moreover, there is a situation: once a person in the industry said that if he is the boss of a business enterprise board, he will immediately sell the stock, and then use the original resources to create a new company, and then plan the new company's listing again ...　　The idea doesn't sound ridiculous, and it does seem to be feasible, and if it really comes from the head of some gem business, it is not impossible for the original big shareholder to sell the stock to cash on paper.　　Guess 8 Super Raise funds can use rationally? Business Report forecast: The difficulty is very big gem 28 companies prospectus disclosure plan raise capital 7.078 billion yuan, but because the last issue price generally exceed the expectation, 28 enterprises actually raise funds to reach 15.5 billion yuan, super raised more than one times. According to past circumstances, some listed companies will be raised funds to cover luxury office buildings, and even investment in stocks caused huge losses, which seriously hurt the interests of investors.　　In order to prevent these bad atmosphere spread to the gem, to ensure that listed companies can reasonably use the fund-raising to create as much investment income as possible for investors, the SFC clearly stipulates that: Gem Enterprises can only be used to fund the main business investment, and establish a dedicated account to enhance the supervision of funds. Although the SFC has strict restrictions on the use of funds, but we believe that because of the loopholes in the management provisions, there is still the risk of misappropriation of funds disguised. Because the SFC only supervises the "exclusive fund account", and does not have the company's stock of cash and other or the use of assets to make demands. In other words, if a listed company invests the amount of cash that was originally intended for the main investment in the capital, such as building or portfolio investment, and then openly use the "super raise funds dedicated account" funds to make up the resulting main business investment gap, so that the listed companies appear to have not violated the relevant regulations of the SFC,　　Because the super raise funds are also really used in the main business investment, and in fact, the company's top but bait, to achieve its disguised misappropriation of funds. According to the current reality of the Gem Enterprise, the above possibility is not nonexistent, take le PU medical treatment as an example, its stock cash balance up to more than 100 million yuan, other gem enterprise also more or less have a bit of "dough money", and this amount of a large amount of "dough", objectively just give them "the idea of playing super fundraising" Left too much room for imagination. Before the regulatory system is imperfectMention, who can guarantee that these listed companies ' super funds can be effectively used for investment in the main business and not be diverted?　　Guess 9 gem can be born "China's Microsoft"? Business Report forecast: In the short term is unlikely to launch the gem, one is for the vast number of investors to provide an investment platform to improve the country's financial and capital markets, the second is to provide a high efficiency Low-cost financing platform for the majority of small and medium-sized enterprises. The global gem is recognized as the only U.S. Nasdaq market, but what is the success of the standard, although the industry does not have a conclusion, however, in fact, many people in the subconscious seem to think that can cultivate more high-quality enterprise rapid growth, is the success of the gem of the important standards, the Nasdaq market is successful,　　It is because there are a large number of world-renowned companies such as Microsoft and Intel. In fact, early in the start of the gem, on the Chinese gem can be born "China Microsoft" and other topics of discussion has been hot, Huaxia times editor-in-chief Shupi even think: China gem can be one or two "Microsoft" is counted as success.　　We believe that China's gem is likely to cultivate a number of powerful enterprises, but to the emergence of world-class well-known enterprises, in the short term is not realistic. From 28 Gem Enterprises, although most of the "two new" characteristics, but its industrial form is still too traditional, lack of deep innovation ability, so the short-term emergence of China's Microsoft is unlikely. However, due to the higher threshold of China's gem, it is obviously higher than foreign standards, the enterprises that can finally be listed in China Gem are the enterprises that have made great development achievements, these enterprises are very strong growth, can predict, gem listed, under the impetus of new funds, these listed enterprises will be very good future development space, therefore, We predict that China's gem appears a number of domestic top companies are more likely, but to get out of the world class like Microsoft or Intel Monopoly enterprises, in the short term is not realistic.