Ning: 5 years after the mobile phone disappeared mobile internet outlet has failed

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In the Office of Ning, the founder of the capital, is a model of the Millennium Falcon he bought from the United States, the most frequent and most famous spacecraft in Star Wars.

Ning said that this is not a fictitious spaceship, he believes that one day human will be made, once created he will definitely vote. But this may be a matter of decades, too far away.

At present, Ning to make every effort is investing, is the field of intelligent robot. In his words, he is already the biggest advocate in the industry.

Ning on the future trend of science and technology in the sand table is: 5-10 years, human will enter the era of intelligent all, robots will be like water, food, the Internet, as the standard of human life every day, difficult to disengage.

This conclusion is only a primer on the opening of the dialogue, in the 1-hour interview with the Investment China Network, ning outlook for the future, bold, unrestrained, jumping, and often shocking language, even people find it incredible.

For example, he said: "The mobile phone will disappear in 5 years, the Iphone 8s will become the swan song, the future will appear to have a sense of the ultimate robot, science is already on the verge of religion, God may exist ...

Regardless of the argument, the direction of investment in the capital of Le Bo Ning already has a very clear judgment: The intelligent revolution of the fresh air mouth has been produced, a new era in front of a large number of creation hero will soon appear, now is the investment layout of the Godsend, and later, the valuation will be too high to your unbearable.

This is not groundless. At the beginning of this year, Yang Ninggang a robot company, entered at a valuation of 25 million yuan, and recently the company has just melted a round, the valuation has reached 90 million U.S. dollars, more than half a year, the valuation soared 20 times times. How incredible!

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The following is a lengthy dictation of Ning's interview with the Chinese network, because its views are too divergent and leaping, and the Investment China Network classifies 9 major arguments according to its logical integration, readers.

Disappearing Phone: iphone 8S or will be the last generation of iphone

More than 10 years of entrepreneurial investment experience tells me that when a tide comes, people tend to underestimate the revolutionary and subversive forces behind technological evolution.

1999 I just returned home to do Chinaren, at that time to Beijing University, Tsinghua and other universities to make speeches, I asked how many people have used the internet, almost few people raise their hands, I said at the time, 5 years-10, the Internet will completely capture your life and work style, your daily necessities, There is no way out of the internet for all of you, and a lot of people were skeptical that it was impossible. But more than 10 years past, now look again, many people can endure 1 days without food to eat, 1 days without water, but can not endure the day without internet.

This is the disruptive nature of technology, and the subversive is constantly advancing: the original PC Internet era overturned the traditional offline, now is the mobile internet age Subversion pc Internet era, the future, the mobile internet era will be overturned, and subversion has actually begun.

Lei had a point of view that the mobile phone is the center of all future connections. I respect Ray's boss, but I don't agree with him.

I think the device will disappear in 5 years. You see Apple just released the iphone 6, I can make a bolder prediction: The iphone 8s will be the last generation of the iphone, by then, Apple will be completely out of the history stage, Apple will not reinvent the phone.

Why? Because we're about to get into the "smart everything" era.

In the age of intelligence, your watch, your necklace, your ring, your glasses, your car, your desk, your house ... All your terminals are intelligent. Why do you need a cell phone in your trouser pocket when communication, sending and receiving information, various applications and functions become standard for all smart equipment?

The New Age of intelligence

When all the times of intelligence come, we will be surrounded by all kinds of smart devices and intelligent robots.

The future without intelligent robots, you will be difficult to adapt, like now if there is no internet, no mobile phone, you will not be able to live the same.

From the moment you woke up to your eyes, you have been living in an intelligent robot flooded environment: Your home is an intelligent robot, smart bathroom will automatically adjust your bath water temperature, smart Kitchen will automatically cook breakfast for you; When you go out to work, the vehicle will be an unmanned robot car; When you walk into the office, your smart desk will immediately sense, opening your mailbox and a day's work schedule ...

As you turn on all intelligent ports, you will no longer need a bulky mobile phone, only need a ring with induction and identity authentication: If you want to call, just walk to the table, tap the table with the ring, the table automatically dial your personal address book, you want to call who, the table can be directly on the phone; You go to the fridge, tap the fridge, the fridge will automatically tell you which fruit is not, you can buy it directly on the fridge; you go to the closet, tap the wardrobe, the wardrobe will automatically tell you which of the appropriate matches, you can even go through the wardrobe directly into the Taobao page to buy new shirts ... Like a ring, the ring became the root of all.

Is this intelligent scenario too far away? I can tell you that it's not far, just in 5-10 years.

The air vents in the mobile internet have started to fail.

The speed of subversion has always been a glaring one. Nokia Motorola has been subverted for many years, IBM has been subverted for many years, you look at Microsoft, once the PC era of Genesis leader, now Zhang are gone, the speed of the subversion is terrible, this represents an era of the past.

3 years ago, we still say that mobile internet is the next tuyere, but now the tuyere has completely changed, mobile Internet if there is wind, there is only a bit of residual wind. At the peak, it began to bloom and decline, downhill.

In 5-10 years, the mobile phone will disappear, the entire mobile internet industry chain based on mobile phones will be completely overturned. Many of the former mobile internet giants may also disappear. Just like the Nokia and IBM.

The new windy port of the future must be intelligent. If you're not polite, the future of Smart everything New era, now the bat three giants, can leave a good, Huawei, Lenovo may disappear in the future, even Apple, Google can be dangerous.

So, you see this apple new product launch, launch Iphone6 at the same time, also launched the iwatch, including later ihome, including Google glasses, in fact, they have been feeling the future of smart all the fresh air, has begun to act.

The Giants reacted very quickly, but they were useful. For any substantial subversive force will not appear within the old system. Who invented the first tablet computer, I tell you, is Microsoft, but is Microsoft transformation successful? The future of the whole intelligent era is the same, the subversive must come from the outside.

Cast "Zhu Yuanzhang", don't Vote "Song Jiang"

Recently, Apple, Google, Facebook began to buy crazy robot type of start-up companies, Google bought a bunch of robotics, Facebook acquisition Oculus, Apple acquisition beats ... Giants want to take their place by buying. But these are invested enterprises, are not a device, the future may die.

A very simple logic: If you are "Song Jiang", you choose to be acquired, but the end is not necessarily good, if you are "Zhu Yuanzhang", you are willing to be acquired? Zhu Yuanzhang and Song Jiang in the bottom of which is more brilliant, obvious.

The future of the full intelligence era, a group of new people, the brilliant company will rise, this is a group of heroes can change the world. Heroes have the temperament of heroes, "I spend flowers to kill", will never be a dependant. Today's big Three bat, which was originally bought, Ali if Yahoo bought, or now Ali?

Now the intelligent robot industry is only just beginning, a large number of "Zhu Yuanzhang" are still only embryonic period, this is absolutely the great gospel, is a huge investment in the layout of the perfect time, now quickly into the bar, and so on 5-10 years later, hundreds of billions of giants produced, then you do not have anything

I want to be a robot era of IDG

Now many VC/PE eyes are still staring at the mobile internet, hand-swim, O2O, peer-to-peer, in fact, these are outdated, there is no chance, but this is inevitable. You think, more than 10 years ago when the Internet tide just bud, VC/PE all performance, many say is a bubble, how many home is really firm bullish on the Internet.

Ma Yun just also said in the road, the first to the United States to find 30 VC did not melt to a penny. Said is too correct, I am too touched, I did chinaren, air network, see how many VC, not to melt money, too difficult.

IDG is how to rise, is the original 1999 wave crazy to invest in the Internet, finally you found that Sina, Sohu, NetEase, Tencent, Baidu, the first wave of giants, a lot of IDG have voted. Recently, I have with IDG partners to play a macro joke, I am going to do in the field of future intelligent robot IDG. Nothing is to be cast, nor one less. Now is the time for many smart projects to be priced cheaply, and after a while, valuations are soaring, and there is no way to vote.

The valuation of Intelligent robot Project do you know how fast it goes up? I was only a company to vote early this year, I was an angel cast, to 25 million yuan valuation into the recent company just melted a round, the valuation has been 90 million dollars, 20 times times a year, what concept?! A round of investors are big institutions, Rob Crazy, why, because they all think, this is the next Tencent and Baidu opportunities.

The two days the founder immediately fly to the United States to see Thiel, the original Thiel told him is, "you who do not take the money", but he still took the money here, after all, in China, you can think, even Peter Thiel is so optimistic about this field.

I was able to enter the 25 million yuan so low, because the founder of my super recognition. Where I am now to preach the age of intelligent robot, can be said to be the biggest advocates of this field and preach hand, bring the benefit is that a lot of intelligent projects are active to find me.

The business model of intelligent entrepreneurship originates from "merging similar"

IDG why the original cast out so many internet giants, because the early Internet start-up threshold High Ah, you have to buy the server, do IDC, build CDN ... The threshold of ultra-high, so entrepreneurial success rate is very high, the first batch of the last group of the basic become a giant.

Intelligent entrepreneurship is the same, now is the highest threshold, you have to do the controller, will be modeled, will do circuit boards, will do artificial intelligence ... The threshold is too high, also because the threshold is high, the income is also the biggest time, because the giant is easiest to be born in the first batch.

The future of intelligent robots in the field of entrepreneurial threshold must be greatly reduced, entrepreneurial costs will be very low. Just like today's Internet startup, you no longer need to buy a server like that, do IDC, build CDN, these things have a professional company to help you do. This is called merging similar, the production of business model is actually a process of merging similar.

The future of the intelligent robot industry chain, will not be a business all links all, have to do robot applications, have to do sensors, have to do chip, have to do 3D printing modeling, have to do cloud computing, have to do the system .... You as a developer, you just have to outsource all the links to a professional company, Like Apple's global assembly chain, eventually you just have to make a finished product, put a trademark, the online public to raise, and began to sell.

In the field of intelligent pioneering, the most popular thing in the beginning must be the application level. Intelligent robot car, smart home, smart hand ring, smart glasses, smart everything ... These direct face consumer, now compare fire, I will definitely vote. Now there is no fire, the future will be fire, the underlying things, I will vote. I just want to throw everything.

For example, I have just cast a robot eye sensor company, radar scanning within 500 meters of various things, transmitted to the robot, this company is not yet to the fire, this basic technology only when the robot is in the road, it will explode.

Again such as the smart ring industry, essentially like the current anti-virus software, anti-virus software itself is not a basic industry, is based on the Internet computer industry, if the computer is not fully covered, anti-virus software industry is not there. Similarly, the smart ring is certainly not fire now, it must be based on the intelligent industry chain on the industry, only when all terminals are intelligent, the industry will be fire.

So the investment in the intelligent field must be systematic investment, what is called system, hardware, software, cloud, everything, this is called system, machine as long as the hardware is OK, but the robot, intelligence, must be a system, this is our step into a new era.

What's the coolest robot?

First, distinguish between machines and robots.

The machine is a VIP operation, with a remote control, according to different buttons, the machine performs different operations, and the robot is autonomous, to perceive themselves, to respond to their own action.

The difference between machines and robots is the degree of intelligence. What is intelligent, the fundamental of intelligence, is the ability to learn, which is the biggest difference with instinct. Human and animal breeding, lactation, neuro-conditioned reflex, etc., these are called instincts, is hard to write in your DNA, not to learn will be, and intelligence, it must be through learning, artificial intelligence is the same.

At present, our common robots belong to Intelligent robot (intelligent robot). This is not the best robot. The most brilliant robot has never been seen before, called the Consciousness Robot (conscious robot).

What is called the Consciousness Robot is the concept of "I" which is spoken by Buddhism. Consciousness is self, can produce emotion, produce emotion, produce "emotions". If you break the arm of a conscious robot, he will be as angry as humans, and that is consciousness, which is the source of emotion. Once the consciousness robot appears, this great degree can be said to be unprecedented, as great as the creation of life.

Only animals have consciousness and emotion. Why is animals conscious? Because animals has a brain, a neural node, and only enough nerve nodes to produce consciousness. Humans can actually be said to be a kind of robot. Human beings are made up of cells, our program is DNA, consciousness is from the cell, from the NBA program produced, this is amazing. An egg and a sperm combine to become single-celled, the cell is not conscious, and then the cell begins to divide and grow, and when it begins to produce consciousness, about 8 months after the pregnancy, the brain's neural nodes reach enough complexity, consciousness is produced, and the fetus begins to become conscious.

To see if a creature has consciousness, the key point is the complexity of its neural nodes, or the complexity of the system. If the system is too simple, there will be no conscious generation.

So the interesting question arises: if our robotic systems are being made more complex, does it mean the birth of consciousness?

Musk's fear of robots is unfounded.

If, as it evolves, the robot really generates self-awareness, as it did in the sci-fi film "Enemy of Machinery", a few years ago, robots began to attack and destroy humans.

Ellon MASC recently expressed the concern that, with the development of artificial intelligence, robots will become smarter, wiser and more intelligent than humans, and will eventually cause unpredictable harm and threat to humans.

I think his argument is wrong because: any program can only create a simpler program than itself.

Our computer programs, many transistors, a lot of chips, density is very large, but these are repeated, each transistor, its number of nodes are simple repetition, continuous repetition, although the number of lines can be very long, but the complexity does not rise. The complexity of the program is too simple compared to the complexity of the human body's procedures.

The complexity of the human body is too complex, the blood circulatory system, the air circulation system, immune systems, all kinds of systems, and are independent operation, is not the nerve center, like, you can not through a program operation, let the heart instantly stop.

And now all the computer programs, are based on Turing's structure, which is a single process program, whether you are Windows, the iphone or any terminal, there is a main thread, there is a starting point, and then loop, call different sensors, tapping the keyboard, moving the mouse, to produce a different stimulus response, Mobilize the appropriate procedures. This procedure is too simple.

You see human beings, each cell has a complete program, each cell knows how to organize, such as the lips and skin cells are different, but this can be derived from the same program Ah, DNA is the same ah, how magical complexity ah.

Compared to our complexity, the computer program is too simple, so simple program to create a higher than human intelligence, impossible. This is a trap that can not jump out, there is the existence of this trap, the robot will never reach the same complexity as mankind, it will never reach our level of life.

So, Musk said this is purely a human fear of the unknown, I think he is very irresponsible to say so.

Science is on the verge of religion

The current computer brain program, in fact, is wrong, although the Giants are working hard, but this computer-based theory based on Turing machine, too simple, too low complexity, the program of the robot, is simply not create consciousness.

Therefore, in order to create a higher level of awareness of the robot, it is necessary to fundamentally change the entire computer theory, change the programming structure of computer programs, a simulation of human programming structure. But even if the consciousness robot is created, his complexity will never be lower than that of human beings, and will never reach the level of human intelligence.

We can create robots, so who created us? Scientists study human DNA and find that our DNA program is consistent with the dna,99% of fruit flies, but our human life levels are much higher than those of Drosophila. You can say that we are creatures that evolve, but who designed this evolutionary mechanism itself?

We all know the Big Bang Theory, everything is from a point of Origin explosion, now is an increase in the age of entropy, the future of the universe explosion to the limit, and will enter an era of entropy reduction, and entropy reduction era, it is likely that everything will go backwards, water is not difficult to accept, broken mirror can really ends. The entropy increases and the entropy decreases, so it moves back and forth. But at present we can only study here, we can only know the law of the universe, but no one can answer: this law is how to come, the origin of the universe is how to come?

Religion says, is God, is the creator. The creator of this ultimate boss last shot is the age of Moses, the Dead Sea separate, let the Jews go, and then a large-scale shot, is Noah's Ark that time, all human history and civilization records are stopped in the prehistoric flood that period, including the records of Chinese civilization Dayu flood time. Including Jesus coming to Earth as a representative of the creator, is it true that no one knows. If human science develops to too high a degree, will not touch that ultimate boss appearance? and no one knows.

So, the scientists of Newton and Einstein, why do they believe God in their old age, because you will find that the scientific development to the end, the discussion is already "where we come, and where to go" problem, has been wandering on the edge of religion.