No inflection point

The fundamentals are confusing, the concussion upward likelihood is bigger, two quarter inflection point arrival anticipated not to change the finance weekly guest author Zhangfan senior strategy analyst of Changjiang Securities now, the direction of public opinion has shifted from the initial pessimism to seeing more, and this state of affairs has been maintained very well recently.　　But will the rally continue?　　Can the stock market rally continue?　　To make sense of the problem, it is necessary to figure out what is driving the recent market rally.　　The current rally is not based on expectations of a better performance for listed companies, but on the results of a rigid demand release that triggers the acceleration of inventories.　　But the release of rigid demand is conditional, the condition is the price falls, if the price continues to rebound, then the future of rigid demand can continue to have a big doubt, and whether the investment demand in the end need to further observe the data.　　So I am not particularly optimistic about the market expectations after the two quarter, my main reason is that after the release of rigid demand, investment needs may not immediately follow, the middle will cause an economic two dip.　　In addition, we need to closely track economic data, particularly credit and inflation levels, which largely affect liquidity and consumer expectations.　　Signs of a rebound in inflation in April, the consumer price index and industrial factory price index of 1.5% and -6.6%,CPI and PPI were negative for 3 consecutive months, but excluding the impact of the tail-end factor, CPI and PPI decline is gradually slowing down. This data market is very sensitive. My opinion is as follows: The CPI year-on-year negative growth is mainly affected by the sharp fall in pork prices and the tail factor. As the supply of live pigs continues to run high, seasonal decline in pork consumption demand and other factors, the April hog market oversupply problem more prominent, at present 6.18:1 of the pig grain parity has been very close to the production of breakeven warning points (6:1), the lowest point since May 2007. The April warping factor was 2%.　　From the chain value, April quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.2%.　　In fact, pork prices have been close to break-even point, plus the tail factor in April to achieve the largest, so April may become the 2009 CPI in the lowest.　　From the Cpi-ppi data, the Cpi-ppi's margin continues to widen, from 4.8 in March to 5.1 in April, indicating a sharp drop in costs and a further increase in the demand for the rigidity of finished product prices.　　The condition of the troika here we have a tedious job of analyzing the quarterly data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. 1-April industrial growth was up 5.5% Year-on-year, up 7.3% in April.　　Industry, Non-metallic Mineral products industry and transportation equipment manufacturing industry growth has increased, other industries, most of the growth fell. Industrial growth in April increased by 7.3% Year-on-year, down 1% from March, and data from electricity output can also confirm the trend of slowing industrial growth in April, April National ElectricityNetwork and Statistics Bureau of Power generation data show that the output fell 3.5% or so, the chain to see the state grid of electricity output April decline about 1.5%.　　From the trend point of view, the start of the decline in electricity production in the middle of March has continued until the middle of April, the beginning of April late in the data has rebounded.　　Therefore, from the power generation and industrial production of mutual proof relationship, industrial production is likely in late April, the growth rate of a certain rebound.　　As a result of the total retail sales of consumer goods and fixed assets investment in the year-on-year growth of a slight rebound, indicating that consumer investment has remained stable, visible export growth rate of decline is the main reason for the year-on-year decline in industrial growth.　　But at this stage of economic bottoming up, due to the base-period effect of year-on-year data fluctuation is too large, often difficult to reflect the real trend of the current stage, so from the chain of data may be more meaningful.　　From the month's export delivery value, 2009 1-April Export delivery value of 439.6 billion yuan, 457 billion yuan, 543.7 billion yuan and 566.2 billion yuan, the April quarter-on-quarter trend is still maintained, but the growth rate has fallen.　　As a result of consumption and fixed asset investment data April month and March compared to the basic unchanged, so from the chain view, export warmer or April 2009 industrial added value brought a certain boost.　　April Total retail sales of consumer goods 934.32 billion yuan, the nominal growth of 14.8%, from 1-April cumulative data, social consumer goods retail total 3,874,120,000,000 yuan, the nominal growth of 15%, slightly higher than the market expectations.　　The concussion upward possibility is bigger actually, from above my analysis, everybody can feel the judgment difficulty.　　I have to say that the recent fundamentals have been confusing, a large number of data in the will not be good between, and the expectation can not be cashed. Based on the knowledge of the above data, I think that the fastest rally in the stock market has passed, whether the adjustment or the shock upward, I believe that will be structural, but the possibility of the recent shocks upward, because the market has not yet reached a turning point, but this inflection point in the two quarter of the arrival of the forecast has not changed.