Non-blue-chip stock trend aging short-term operability weakened

"Securities daily" Yun-jeong, "securities daily": Capital city mocking Reservoir "still abundant April economic data, the different angles of interpretation, resulting in positive and negative analysis results. In general, however, the trend towards better economic growth has not changed significantly: fixed asset investment continued to accelerate; In addition to the above economic data, there is no big problem for the stock market to have a more predictable credit and money supply. While 591.8 billion per cent of new loans were less than expected in April, the overall expansion of credit was unchanged; from the more important money supply, M1 and M2 growth reached 17.48% and 25.95%--in spite of a sharp narrowing of the chain gap between growth rates, 20%　　The above M2 growth rate is still a very high figure in history, indicating that liquidity remains relatively loose, which can not be belittled by the real economy and the capital market.　　M1 for the stock market has a strong predictability, a number of peaks are accompanied by M1 growth to reach the peak, so the only thing we need to be vigilant is whether M1 growth can be maintained relatively stable, as long as its slowdown has not worsened further, then the capital city of the reservoir "the ample situation will not change." "Securities Daily": short-term operability weakened understanding the overall background of the capital market, "securities daily" proposal to continue to pay attention to the situation of the capital face of the near-stage market. While the "reservoir" remains "plump", it is undeniable that the market has recently been marked by a lack of new capital injections (which have a strong correlation with the M1 slowdown). Plainly, the market is not short of money, but the lack of sustained momentum to promote the money. But just as the economic rebound from the bottom is going through a bottleneck, the stock market is bound to experience the process.　　What's more, from the market style of conversion expectations, blue-chip start-up needs large capital operation, and this part of the funds are usually relatively conservative, or even to describe, so at this stage of the rise and fall of the shock market is inevitable. This column on the Friday tip, banks and other large-cap stock start-up is usually accompanied by short-term shocks, this week the phenomenon is very obvious. In addition, in the early signs of blue-chip stocks, the signs of aging are more obvious, in addition to the subject-matter stocks and the gradual retreat of hot spots, most of the weak rebound stocks have failed to create a new high (this is not to be underestimated, because it shows that the trend of a clear share of the　　In Wednesday, for example, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high on the same day, and the deep reference was still subject to the Monday overcast, which also indicated that the stock performance was much weaker than the index. Now, the index is oscillating near the front, delayed breakthrough, and the impact of stock fluctuations on the index less and less, so banks, real estate and steel, as well as "petrochemical double" trend will determine the direction of the index (with Vanke a trend as an example, its rise after a high level of shock, is obviously a brewing choice).　　However, on the other hand, as the market for life-saving straw, if they are slow to start, then the index short-term may be difficult to get out of the mire. Above，The operability of the market has been greatly compromised.　　If you have patience, then the midline may still have as a, if your psychological quality is not perfect, so it is better to jump out to wait and see. "Securities Daily": the focus on the peripheral market close to the peripheral stock market, the main reason may be more similar reasons for the rebound, that is, the global economic recovery expectations. However, in Wednesday, the United States announced a decline in retail data, the Dow fell sharply, the world's stock market shock, NA, Hang Seng and other large jump in the weak, most of the peripheral stock market is below the short-term trend, which may further aggravate the volatility of a shares. and their ability to repair the trend of breaking, may affect the side of a-shares.　　At least for now, the peripheral market may still be under pressure in the short term (see Figure 1). In addition, the Thursday peripheral stock market generally rebounded, and the Friday A-share is only in the opening performance, and in the Thursday early disc to jump down on the opening of the mouth after the decline, overall, the Friday market slightly weaker, 60-minute line trend is also not ideal (see Figure 2). So don't rule out the possibility that the market will continue to be under pressure next week, if the previous high fails, then there may be a concentrated release of the risk, but as long as the 60MA is not flat downward and the index is still running on the connection between 2037 points and 2,372 points of the rising trend line, then technically, The trend of the Central line is still not completed.