Non-ferrous metals this week "mania" two times soaring to come?

Every reporter Zhangjilu "has missed the first quarter of this year, non-ferrous metal plate up to 90% of the increase, if the 3-quarter non-ferrous metals Plate has a chance to return, I want to miss?" "One of the industry analysts recently complained to reporters. Since the beginning of the year, the market for non-ferrous metal plate is full of differences in the expectations, and the plate has been in the market's rapid progress, which also makes a lot of research professionals in the industry are greatly puzzled.　　　Now, the non-ferrous metal plate seems to have completed the "Air refueling", ready to start two times. In the horizontal plate nearly 3 months later, in this week, the LUN copper, Roentgen aluminum have a high trend of innovation, non-ferrous metal plate stocks are mostly large higher, continuous trading, non-ferrous metal plate has a comeback potential. Three copper enterprises, Yunnan Copper Industry, Jiangxi Copper, tongling color week rose to 20% or so, in Friday, there are 7 aluminum stocks in the trading board, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Cloud aluminum shares, Zhongfu industry, such as weekly gains of 31.36%, 28.77% and 27.4% respectively, this week, the agency funds also grabbed a large plate stocks,　　Yunnan Copper Industry (000878, the former closing price of 26.2 yuan), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612, closing price of 19.1 yuan), Nanshan aluminum (600219, closing price 12.82 yuan) of the billboard seats are entrenched seats.　　Investors can not help but shout "non-ferrous metal plate How", at the same time, the industry report revealed the differences at the beginning of the year, more and more space interwoven together, is not the main wave of non-ferrous metal plate to come again? Soaring and plunging memories last year the decline of non-ferrous metal plate stocks can be said to be "inhuman", more than 80% of the decline of the shares abound, Yunnan Copper from the high point of 98 yuan fell to 7 yuan, Jiangxi Copper (600362,　　Closing price of 39.91 yuan) from 78 yuan to 8 yuan, HTC Shares (600331, closing price 18.35 Yuan) and Chi Hong Zinc germanium (600497, close to 22.54 yuan) Two pair shares are also dive downward.　　Since entering the 2009, the non-ferrous metal plate to change the decline, half a year, the non-ferrous metal plate rose to 122.95%, far beyond the market, and the plate over the past year also exceeded the market 16.65%, indicating that the "king" of non-ferrous metal plate has not declined. In this regard, Guo Hai Securities industry analyst Huanghao that the beginning of the year due to recovery factors and domestic increase in non-ferrous metals, such as the stimulus, non-ferrous metals stocks began to soar.　　However, the market is full of worries about whether the demand can be scheduled, and the performance has become the most criticized issue in the market, the whole industry is in a loss for the first quarter. Chase Securities industry analyst Zhaoyan told the Daily economic news reporter that the first quarter of the year-on-year growth of the forecast is stronger, but the first quarter of the main factors affecting the trend of the industry is the price, into the April after the impact of the main trend of the industry is valuation, because the 1-quarter plate stock price rally than the price of metal rally,　　So that the plate is overvalued, so it has been running for several months to lose the market. AsToday, the non-ferrous metal plate in the horizontal plate nearly 3 months later, to choose the direction of the time again. "Crossroads" to choose up this week the non-ferrous metal plate rose to 8.51%, run to win the market gains at the same time also break through the early consolidation platform, which is similar to the consolidation situation in the early November to January this year, is also the market for non-ferrous metals fraught with worries, but the non-ferrous metal plate in the early February　　Launched the main wave for 2 consecutive months. Concerns have focused on a moratorium on domestic purchases, a recovery in demand and a downward adjustment in commodity prices. Japan securities that the United States last week released a mixed economic data, U.S. stock shocks, the U.S. dollar continued to weak collation, crude oil continues to fall, causing investors worry that the global economic downturn is far from the bottom, the commodity market confidence also weakened.　　In addition, Shanghai-LUN copper spreads continue to narrow, consumption off-season, consumption of the end of the reserve and the completion of the procurement of the State Reserve Bureau and other factors will make the three-quarter copper import demand weakened. Schweiping, an analyst with the Orient Securities industry, says the supply trend has increased significantly as metal prices have rebounded sharply.　　In terms of consumption, there has been no new growth in metal consumption since May, which has led to a shift in supply and demand for metals from a tight 1-quarter to a supply-demand balance, or even excess.　　Although most of the market is waiting for metal prices and stock price callback opportunity to buy, but there are positive bullish brokers. Citic Securities industry analyst Zhou Xizhan said metal prices and a-shares of the non-ferrous plate is expected to continue to climb in anxiety, although the 3 quarter is the consumer off-season and China's stock end, recovery and other pressures increased significantly, but the market benefited from economic recovery expectations, the depreciation of the dollar and inflation concerns, the three-quarter non-ferrous plate is expected to remain strong　　And a new wave of rising prices is likely to come again. Joint securities Ye Shi told reporters that in accordance with GDP "Bao 8" expected, the second half of the sprint requirements. Among the three exports, investment and consumption, investment has always been the first choice of policy-driven.　　Demand for basic metals is expected to be significantly boosted, and this summer's off-season is expected to reverse. Copper, aluminum or a new round of lead after 1.5 months of turbulence, the dollar index returned to its downward trend this week, and the dollar index fell again below 80, triggering a surge in non-ferrous metals prices, with a 100-dollar gap from the earlier highs of 5390 US dollars/ton, and a new high of $1700 for the rally.　　Ton, Shanghai Copper, Shanghai Aluminum is only one step away from the new highs. Ye Shi that, since this year's price, inventory, operating rate, such as the trend of the first quarter prices and sales are lower, the second quarter price rise, sales gradually recovered.　　In the three or four quarter, when the price strength is expected to be maintained, sales will increase significantly, and the profitability of the company is expected to increase significantly. Industry insiders believe that the two quarter of a single season, the industry has shown positive upward trend, performance inflection point basic confirmation. At present, the prices of basic metals are significantly higher than the first half of the average price, no need to expect further significant increase in prices, the future of this situation only to maintain 1-2 months, believe that analysisTeachers to raise earnings forecasts will become mainstream.　　Guo Hai Securities industry analyst Huanghao that with foreign aluminum widely used in transportation and packaging industry, 33% of China's aluminum used in the real estate industry, in the real estate industry investment increase in anticipation of the drive, in addition to aluminum downstream of the car production, power grid construction continued to exceed market expectations, making aluminum price rise to become a big probability event.　　At present, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum has risen from 50% in the first quarter to about 82%, Shenwan that the continued boom of the downstream industry of electrolytic aluminum will continue to promote the aluminum operating rate and promote the aluminum price.　　Wanguo's recent study also argues that metal price rises have been reflected in the rise in share prices relative to other non-ferrous stocks, and that the current stock price of aluminium-listed companies is just equivalent to the level of February this year, and does not reflect the fact that industry fundamentals are improving.　　From the level of industry profitability, the first quarter aluminum price of about 12316 yuan/ton, the industry average ton of aluminum cost of 13200 yuan/ton, but the current aluminum prices in 13700 yuan, the industry is expected to achieve a basic profit in the second half. CICC also released its latest study yesterday, reaffirming the "good" rating of the aluminium industry.　　CICC believes that aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year, is expected to break 15000 yuan/ton, the current tracking of the main aluminum listed companies have been in the 2 quarter profit, the second half with the downstream demand for further warmer, the industry started to increase the rate of return will continue to improve profitability　　Stock analysis focus on copper, aluminum related stocks insiders believe that investors can focus on the recent gains in copper prices, aluminum prices of stocks, and they are expected to become two of non-ferrous metals to start the main force. Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612, closing price 19.10 Yuan): The company is the leading enterprise of electrolytic aluminum industry, currently has 420,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. As a member of the aluminum department, at present, the company's alumina procurement and China aluminum long single lock, and mainly purchased from its Henan branch, geographical proximity to make zero inventory possible, effectively reducing the company's operating costs and maintain the stability of the company's operations.　　Wanguo that the aluminum price per increase of 1000 yuan/ton, the company will increase the performance of 0.37 yuan per share, the most flexible. Cloud Aluminum Shares (000807, closing price 11.94 Yuan): The company is located in "Nonferrous Metals Kingdom" Yunnan, the control of aluminum smelting capacity has reached 400,000 tons, production in the national aluminum plant in the top three. The company's first batch of aluminum products reserves the maximum quantity of 180,000 tons, the latter will be based on the situation to store.　　The company more benefit the local government's regional stabilization policy, electrolytic Aluminum Enterprise direct purchase of electricity pilot set a limit of 0.3 yuan, direct purchase of the preferential margin will be around 0.06 yuan, which means that the cost of aluminum will be reduced by 300 yuan/ton. Jiangxi Copper (600362, closing price 39.91 yuan): the domestic largest copper producer, cathode copper production capacity of more than 800,000 tons/year, Jiang Copper Mineral resources reserves are very rich, of which copper resources reserve 15.21 million tons, gold 405 tons. For a mining studentIn the production business, the reserves of resources and the ability to gain resources increase will determine the profitability and growth of the company. Jiang copper in both areas are ahead of the domestic counterparts.　　In addition, the expansion of Dexing copper mine, after the completion of the annual increase of copper concentrate containing 41,000 tons of copper, Shing Mun Mountain two phase expansion project, the annual production of copper concentrate containing 14,000 tons of copper ore; Yongping copper mine open to underground mining technology renovation project, Wushan copper mine daily treatment 5000 tons of expansion of production and China Aluminum (601600, closing price 15.06 yuan): China's largest alumina producer and original aluminum producer, of which alumina production ranked second in the world.　　2008, the company completed the acquisition of five aluminum processing enterprises and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise, the company has recently funded 10 billion yuan plan to expand its production line again, which will enable the company in the late aluminum price rise in a substantial benefit. Zhongfu Industrial (600595, closing price 13.87 yuan): The industry's typical aluminum electric joint venture. Companies through the increase in the holding of the Fu-fu Electric power, holding its 45.97% per ton of aluminum consumption cost than the general electrolytic aluminum plant less than 1800 yuan, in the future electrolytic aluminum power price cancellation concessions will highlight its cost advantage. The company wholly-owned Lin Feng aluminum electrolytic Aluminum production capacity of existing 110,000 tons, installed capacity of 110MW, Zhongfu industry will total 420,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, benefiting from the future of environmental protection does not exclude electrolytic aluminum capacity of the possibility of continuous expansion. The company 70% of alumina from foreign imports, the remaining 50% from the aluminum long list, 50% from the aluminum spot.