Non-manufacturing economy keeps steady and fast growth

Non-manufacturing economy maintains steady and rapid growth--from CFLP's non-manufacturing PMI to the current economic situation in October 2010, China's non-manufacturing Purchasing managers Index (PMI) Business Activity index was 60.5%, down 1.2% in the chain. In this month's major index changes, we believe that the current non-manufacturing market activities remain active, the non-manufacturing economy to maintain a steady and rapid growth, a slight slowdown in growth. Mainly reflected in: Business Activity index for 4 consecutive months to maintain the high operation of 60%, a slight drop in growth this month; New Order index for four consecutive months to maintain more than 55% of the operating range, this month reached 56.3%, the chain fell slightly 0.6%; The median input price index reached 61.4%, the chain Rose 0.9%　　The expected index of business activity remained at a high level of more than 60%, reaching 63.7% this month, but the chain fell by a large margin, reaching 3.5%.　　Data changes in various industries show that the main reasons for this month's data changes are as follows: 1. The stable change of service industry supports the non-manufacturing development this month, the business activities and market demand of the service industry showed a steady development trend. From the market operating activities, this month's producer services Business Activity index reached 59.2%, the chain fell slightly 0.7%. The index has maintained a high level of 58% since March this year, while the steady changes in major sectors such as logistics and information services have led to a steady development of productive services activities this month, with the Business Activity index of consumer services reaching 59.9%,　　A small drop of 0.2%, the index for four consecutive months to maintain more than 57% of the high operation, retail, accommodation and catering industry stable changes to support the development of consumer services.　　In terms of market demand, the New Order index for producer services this month reached 57.1%, the same as last month, with the index running at around 57% for five consecutive months, with new orders for consumer services reaching 55.9% per cent in the month, and 0.5% in the chain, which has continued to rise steadily for four consecutive months.　　With the change of business activities and market demand in the integrated service industry, we believe that the stable development of the service industry has effectively supported the active development of the overall economic activities of the non-manufacturing market. 2. Changes in construction activity and real estate activities led to a slowdown in the growth of non-manufacturing activities this month, the overall construction activity presented a high correction. Table now: Its business activity index reached 64.9%, the chain fell 4.6%; its new order index reached 56.1%, the chain fell 5.1%. The main reason for this month's slowdown in the growth of non-manufacturing activities is the retreat of major activities in the construction industry. The correction of the commercial index of the Housing and civil engineering construction industry is the main factor leading to the correction of the construction business activity, and the sharp drop in the New Order index of the construction installation industry and the building decoration industry leads to the decline of the overall demand in the construction market. We believe that, influenced by seasonal factors,The activities of the construction industry in the October each year will show a high correction of the situation.　　However, in October this year, the construction Business Activity index correction is larger than the same period, so we do not rule out the changes in the National macro-control policy on the construction market is gradually the possibility of impact. In addition, affected by the country's two macro-control policies, this month's real estate market activity also appeared to fall. Because the real estate industry index occupies a high proportion in the consumer service Industry index, it also restrains the overall growth of non-manufacturing economic activity to some extent. Business activity in the real estate industry reached 51% this month,　　The chain down 4.3%, to a certain extent, drag on the consumer services Business Activity index of the upward space; Similarly, demand changes in the real estate market have also partly curbed the rise in new orders for consumer services this month, falling below 50% per cent and falling 3.3% in the chain this month. 3. Rising raw material prices push up business costs this month, the median input price index reached 61.4%, the chain up 0.9%, four consecutive months to maintain the trend of the chain. From the perspective of enterprises, the price of raw material prices to the enterprises brought about by the cost of the current industry has become a common problem. And from the three major sectors, consumer services in the intermediate price index in recent months, the price index of the construction industry has remained at more than 60% of the level.　　Data changes suggest that current inflationary pressures are still continuing. While non-manufacturing activity remains buoyant, business expectations remain high, but growth has fallen. This month, the expected index of business activity remained at a high level of 63.7%, falling 3.5% per cent on the chain. From the three major industry changes, the operational activity indices have varying degrees of correction. The correction of construction and consumer services is obvious. We believe that the pullback in the expected index of business activity this month has a seasonal dimension. Industries such as construction, lodging and catering, which are susceptible to seasonal effects, have lowered expectations for future economic activity. But from the data change, the expected index of business activity in this month's callback range is greater than the same period of the year level.　　Further attention needs to be paid to the changes in the expected indices of operational activities. Overall, the current non-manufacturing economic activities still maintain a benign range of high operation. The support role of service industry to the development of non-manufacturing is increasingly embodied. With the rapid change of China's economic development mode, the service industry will promote the economic development. The construction industry will remain high for some time, and its supporting effect on the non-manufacturing economy still exists, and it needs to pay close attention to its subsequent changes.